China

The recent power problems in China, largely caused by bad weather reported in our recent article, comes at the same time as widespread power problems in South Africa have affected Ferro-Chrome, coal and precious metal mining.

So much for mining companies, but what of the manufacturers? It is estimated that the Chinese power problems have idled up to 10% of the country’s steel production and several aluminum pot-lines. Power failures are particularly damaging to aluminum smelters because the molten aluminum rapidly solidifies in the cell, taking months to get the cell operating again at a very high cost. So if power is likely to be disrupted, smelters usually voluntarily take pots out of operation to reduce the demands on the grid and ensure reliable supply for those cells left in operation. That is what is happening at Southern Africa’s three smelters, Bayside 190kt, Hillside 709kt and Mozambique’s Mozal 564kt following warnings from South Africa’s power generator Eskom that due to heavy rains they can’t guarantee power supply for the next 4 weeks. We have heard that due to under investment there will be intermittent cuts for the next 4 to 7 years! In addition, expansion plans at Mozal and Hillside and the proposed new Coega smelter of 700kt are all in doubt according to Standard Bank, Leon Westgate, Base Metals Flashnote, 29 Jan 2008. Read more

For any consumer of Cobalt metal or components with any significant Cobalt content the price pressures must have been nigh on unbearable this past year. Driven by consumer demand and an element of speculative buying in the face of tight supplies, Cobalt has increased from $13/lb at the beginning of 2006 to $27/lb at the beginning of 2007 and closing 2008 it stood at $40.25/lb.

The supply market is tight, apparently producer stocks are low, one of the world’s principal and traditional sources, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) placed a moratorium on exports of cobalt concentrates and trickle sales form the US government stockpiles are finally coming to and end. The DRC was the world’s largest single supplier of Cobalt, often produced as a by-product from Copper production, in the days when DRC’s Gecamines was a major producer sitting on the world’s richest ore Copper and Cobalt ore bodies during the 1980’s. Even today many of the tailings dumps contain higher copper and cobalt levels than new rock projects in other parts of the world. But decades of mismanagement, corruption, war and under investment has brought production to 10% of what it was in its heyday.

Demand on the other hand has been driven both by China but more broadly by the strength of specific high tech industries for which Cobalt is a non substitutable material. Historically, cobalt has been in super alloys used in gas turbines and this still remains an important market, particularly with the strength of the aerospace and power generation markets. But more recently cobalt’s use in rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops and fuel efficient hybrid cars has created demand growth of 7% per annum. The Financial Times is quoted as saying a Toyota Prius contains 2.5 kg of cobalt in its batteries, production is currently 350,000 per annum and is set to reach over one million by 2012 . Read more

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