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President Donald Trump has signaled his displeasure at aspirations expressed by Saudi Arabia at a recent OPEC meeting with respect to an extension in the current supply deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members for continued supply constraints with a view to higher prices.

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Saudi Arabia is rumored to be looking for prices in excess of $100 per barrel, partly to support the upcoming $2 trillion IPO of Saudi Aramco and partly to stem dwindling reserves caused by a haemorrhaging budget deficit.

According to The Telegraph, the kingdom’s massive foreign cash reserves have dwindled from a peak of $737 billion in 2014 to $488 billion today. Some oil experts think that break-even for Saudi Arabia is somewhere close to $85 a barrel.

President Trump’s comments caused a sharp retraction in oil prices, but it is not clear if the fall will be sustained.

(more…)

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A new report in HSBC’s Navigator series focuses on the long-term ascendancy of the Asian region as it explores both anticipated and actual trends in India’s trade patterns with its nearby neighbors.

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India enjoys a balance of trade surplus in services but a deficit in goods with much of its services focused on Western tech and B2B markets. But that pattern is not changing, surprisingly, partly due to government encouragement and partly due to the relative size of the economies closer to home.

Largely as a result of fears of protectionism in the West, India’s policy has been to work closely with neighbors to develop regional trade opportunities.

However, despite the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA), progress in increasing trade with Asian neighbours has been slow. Now exporters are looking to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), to which India is an intended signatory, in order to create opportunities in what will be the world’s largest trading block.

India’s exports are changing, partly under government encouragement but mostly in response to changing global demand. Traditional products like clothing and apparel are declining. Currently in third place, they are expected to slip to 10th over the next decade, as this table shows.

The reports estimates that by 2030, India will be increasingly exporting goods within the Asian region, with export growth to Asia Pacific outpacing India’s exports to Europe and North America. In terms of individual countries, the U.S. and UAE will remain the top two export destinations, but China will rise in importance and Vietnam will also join the top five list. The top 10 fastest growing exports destinations will almost all be in Asia up to 2020, with growth in some markets rising at 12-13% per year.

Firms looking to export to India will face growing competition from China. But with a rising middle class and strong demographics, India represents an important export market for Western firms in the decade ahead. Navigator estimates that the greatest opportunities will remain in machinery, as this graph illustrates:

Perhaps more surprising is the expected static nature of India’s exports. The report sees little change in the mix of destinations, with India’s top service exports destinations remaining largely unchanged between 2017 and 2030, with the U.S. and the U.K. occupying the top two spots. (more…)