Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Stainless, Rare Earth, Metal Prices, Forecasting | MetalMiner

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This morning in metals news: U.S. automotive retails sales appear to be on the rise this month for the first time since February; U.S. steel imports are down 21%; and the zinc price has slipped nearly 4% over the past month.

The MetalMiner 2021 Annual Outlook consolidates our 12-month view and provides buying organizations with a complete understanding of the fundamental factors driving prices and a detailed forecast that can be used when sourcing metals for 2021 — including expected average prices, support and resistance levels.

Automotive retail sales forecast to gain this month

According to a forecast released jointly by LMC Automotive and J.D. Power, U.S. new-vehicle retail sales this month are expected to rise on a year-over-year basis.

The increase marks the first gain since February, according to the forecast.

“Retail sales in September are poised to post the first year-over-year gain since February, a milestone in the recovery from the disruption that COVID-19 has had on the industry,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

Steel imports down 21%

U.S. steel imports this year through August fell 21% compared with the same time frame in 2019, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Meanwhile, finished steel import market share reached an estimated 17% in August. For the first eight months of the year, import market share for finished steel reached 19%.

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The oil price’s stabilization, copper mine production and more — before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week that was.

This week, Stuart Burns analyzed the oil market, which has seen price stabilization over the last three-plus months.

However, less-than-uniform adherence to OPEC’s previously agreed upon oil output cuts have combined to depress additional upward momentum.

“Elements of game theory have long plagued OPEC’s attempts to control oil prices,” MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns wrote this week.

“The incentive to cheat is huge. The sense by many smaller players that they suffer from output agreements more than the “big boys” breeds a sense of resentment at times.

“That is particularly true among parties that have little else in common other than a desire to maximize oil revenues.”

The Brent crude oil price ticked up Thursday, reaching just under $42 per barrel.

In case you missed them, here were the metals storylines on MetalMiner this week:

Week of Sept. 20-24 (oil price stabilizes, copper mine production and much more)

• MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns on India’s efforts to increase surveillance of aluminum and copper import levels.
• Oil prices have stabilized over the last few months around $40 per barrel, but some OPEC countries have not stuck to previously agreed upon output reduction targets.
• U.S. steel capacity utilization dipped slightly last week, falling to 64.5%.
• MetalMiner’s “should-cost” models shed light on how much metals buyers should expect to spend on their aluminum, carbon steel and stainless steel.
• India became a net exporter of steel to China during the April-August period.
• Copper mine production fell 1% during the first half of 2020, per the International Copper Study Group.
• Increasing costs and general uncertainty are giving importers fits. Meanwhile, the pandemic has actually proved to be a profitable time for shipping lines.

The MetalMiner 2021 Annual Outlook consolidates our 12-month view and provides buying organizations with a complete understanding of the fundamental factors driving prices and a detailed forecast that can be used when sourcing metals for 2021 — including expected average prices, support and resistance levels.