• metal duct image

    GET TWO ON US!

    Receive 2 monthly metal buying outlooks at no cost to you. Understand the market in which you’re buying. Formulate your 2016 strategy.

    Sign Up Now >
  • slider-annualoutlook-blue2016

    New Outlook Report

    Grab our NEW 2016 annual metals outlook report, updated for Q2 – budget, forecast, strategize.

    Free Download >

Nickel prices are, finally, on the move.

Owners of shares in nickel mines shouldn’t start popping the champagne corks just yet, it’s going to be a slow burn rise but the landscape appears to be shifting and it is because of, as usual, China. First and foremost, there is a trend among stainless producers this year, particularly in China, to produce more 300 series nickel-bearing grades than last year.

Real Demand is Up

Just as mills and consumers shifted wholesale from 300 to 400 series grades when nickel prices went through the roof in 2010-11, a prolonged period of falling prices has encouraged consumers and designers to switch back to higher-quality grades.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Macquarie Bank is quoted by Reuters saying global nickel demand will grow by 4.4% this year, largely on the back of a predicted 4% rise in Chinese 300 series stainless production. Likewise, the INSG estimates the global market will fall into a small 600-ton deficit in Q1 of this year, although it must be said the market remains well supplied by huge global stocks. (more…)

This week, we asked if cheap Chinese steel imports are really that bad for the U.S.? After all, if Beijing and China’s regional governments are subsidizing steel production exported to the U.S. to the tune of 522% for cold-rolled and 451% for corrosion-resistant, aren’t U.S. manufacturers gaining a huge cost advantage on the finished products they ship back to the People’s Republic? Or even sell domestically?

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

U.S. Producers certainly don’t see it that way. Neither do steel producers in most of the developed world, save China. 12 Steel associations from the Americas and Europe released another strongly worded letter to governments around the world, lamenting Chinese overproduction. Just look at those tariffs! The steel associations really mean business this time!

Nice job on the ditch, USA! I’m China, I’m here to fill it back in. Source: Adobe Stock/Kara.

China, of course, doesn’t see it this way at all and has previously said, through its Ministry of Commerce, that its steel industry is merely “export competitive.” It’s certainly a novel defense, but it would also be the equivalent of Tom Brady saying his footballs are only “deflation competitive” without dealing with why they are so. Or Russia saying Crimea is “annexation competitive” without saying why it should stop being a part of Ukraine and start becoming a part of the federation.

What is Protectionism?

Still, U.S. regulators like the Commerce Department and the International Trade Administration may want to tone down their heavy anti-dumping and countervailing duties decisions as 522% and 451% is an awful lot of anti-dumping and countervailing duties and the extreme outlier positions that Commerce has staked out could garner sympathy for China in front of a future World Trade Organization court. (more…)