Aluminum MMI: LME Prices Fall Toward Support Level

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Alexander Chudaev/Adobe Stock

The August Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell two points last month. The current Aluminum MMI index now stands at 93 points.

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LME aluminum prices fell in July. However, the rate of the declines has slowed. Price changes do not appear to be sharp and selling trading volume remains weak. The price decrease looks like a retracement after the peak in April due to Russian sanctions.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets

LME aluminum prices have fallen again toward the stiff support level that aluminum prices had during 2017 and 2018. LME aluminum prices fell towards that support level in December 2017, in April 2018 and back again in July 2018. However, aluminum prices rebounded each time (and again in July) from that level.

How aluminum prices react to this stiff support level will give some insight on upcoming aluminum price movements. Buying organizations will want to follow aluminum price movements closely to identify the perfect moment to buy forward and lock prices.

Chinese Aluminum

Chinese aluminum output increased by 1.6% in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The gradual ramp-up of new smelting capacity has increased production. The daily output figure increased to 94,000 tons in June versus the previous 90,000 in May, signaling an increase of 0.8% year on year.

Chinese increased exports received a boost from a favorable price arbitrage, with a weaker yuan. Exports reached 510,000 tons in June, the second-highest figure on record.

U.S. Domestic Aluminum

As a result of the ongoing uncertainty in the aluminum market, U.S. aluminum Midwest premiums have skyrocketed this year.

August’s premiums, however, have started to decrease, sitting at $0.19/pound. The current premium has slid to April 2018 levels, but still appear close to its four-year high at $0.20/pound.

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Despite the recent downtrend, the LME aluminum price trend suggests a continuation of the bull market that started last year.

Adapting the right buying strategy is crucial to reduce risks. Buying organizations that want to start doing so now may want to take a free trial now to our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook.

Want to see an Aluminum Price forecast? Take a free trial!

Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends

The metals in the Aluminum MMI basket generally fell this month.

LME aluminum prices decreased this month by 3.88%, with a closing price in July of $2,076/mt. Meanwhile, Korean Commercial 1050 sheet traded flat in August, with a reading of $3.57/kilogram.

Chinese aluminum primary cash prices increased by 0.361%, while China aluminum bar fell 5.33%. Chinese aluminum billet prices also decreased 5.33% this month, to $2,197/mt.

The Indian primary cash price fell by 3.27% to $2.07/kilogram.

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