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This morning in metals news, China again emphasized its desire for a removal of tariffs toward the goal of an initial trade deal with the U.S., U.S. Steel has laid off more workers and a Taiwanese firm is planning to invest $100 million in a new Turkish steel factory.

Keep up to date on everything going on in the world of trade and tariffs via MetalMiner’s Trade Resource Center.

Tariff Talks Continue

As U.S.-China trade talks continue, with the parties aiming to reach a “phase one” deal, China’s Commerce Ministry renewed a call for the removal of tariffs.

“The trade war was begun with adding tariffs, and should be ended by canceling these additional tariffs. This is an important condition for both sides to reach an agreement,” said Gao Feng, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce, according to a CNBC report.

More U.S. Steel Layoffs

In addition to layoffs at its Minnesota taconite plants and at its Granite City, Illinois plant, the steelmaker has also laid off workers at its Gary Works and Midwest Plant in Portage, Indiana, the Times of Northwest Indiana reported.

The steelmaker reported a net loss of $84 million in the third quarter, compared with net earnings of $291 million in Q3 2018.

Taiwan to Continue Investment in Turkey

According to a report in the Daily Sabah, the president of the Taiwan External Trade Development Council said the company will invest $100 million toward a new steel factory in northwestern Turkey.

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Walter Yeh, president of the council, added Taiwan hopes to increase its trade volume with Turkey up to $2 billion, according to the report.

The normally pragmatic Netherlands has been strangely agitated recently, as both the construction and agricultural industry have protested on the streets of the capital, the Hague, against the government’s measures for combating nitrogen and PFAS-based pollution.

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In itself this would barely be newsworthy for MetalMiner if it weren’t for the impact it is having on an already subdued metals industry.

Even before the widespread disruption to the Dutch construction industry, demand for steel and aluminum was suffering from depressed German industrial consumption, largely due to a downturn in the automotive market.

But in the Netherlands, the government is struggling to resolve an issue with nitrogen emissions permitting, which Reuters reports are four times the E.U. average per capita in the small and densely populated Netherlands.

Although 61% of emissions are coming from agriculture, a sizable portion also comes from the construction industry – a big consumer of aluminum and steel products.

The impact is particularly damaging, as the country has been enjoying a boom in infrastructure and housing investment of late.

As a result of a fiasco over how permits are assessed, a review is underway and, in the meantime, new permits have been withheld, leading to delays and project uncertainty.

Aluminum extruders estimate the European market is down at least 20% from last year as a result. With steel prices also waning, participants across the supply chain are reducing inventories, adding further to the fall in demand being experienced by producers.

Lead times have come in and order books are weak, as many in the steel and aluminum supply chains find themselves overstocked relative to ongoing demand. The double whammy of weak automotive demand now being exacerbated by a fall in construction activity has caught many by surprise.

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The government in the Netherlands will no doubt resolve its permitting issues. However, a return to last year’s robust level of activity is unlikely to bounce back quickly and producers remain pessimistic about demand next year.

In the meantime, prices are likely to remain under pressure and lead times will remain short into 2020.

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This morning in metals news, U.S. steel import permit applications surged in October, U.S. Steel has laid off workers at its Granite City operation and Port Hedland iron ore shipments to China dropped in October.

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Steel Import Permit Applications Surge

U.S. steel import permit applications for October jumped 34.6% compared with the September final import total, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported this week.

Import permit applications for October totaled 2.56 million tons, according to AISI.

Meanwhile, steel import market share in October checked in at 17%.

U.S. Steel Lays Off Workers at Granite City

On the heels of news of layoffs at U.S. Steel’s taconite operations in Minnesota, the steelmaker has reportedly also laid off an unspecified number of nonunion workers at its Granite City, Illinois operation, the Belleville News-Democrat reported.

The Granite City operation famously received a boost after the Trump administration’s imposition of Section 232 tariffs on imported steel. Previously idled, in March and June of 2018, U.S. Steel announced it would restart two blast furnaces at the plant, welcoming back approximately 800 workers in the process.

Port Hedland Iron Ore Exports to China Drop in October

Exports of iron ore to China from Australia’s Port Hedland fell in October, Reuters reported.

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On a month-over-month basis, iron ore exports to China from the major port dropped 0.7% in October.

The Renewables Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell one point for a November MMI reading of 97.

Slowing Cobalt Mine Output

According to research group Antaike, global cobalt output growth is expected to slow in 2020, Reuters reported.

The report cites Antaike nickel analyst Joy Kong, who said cobalt production is expected to rise by 5,000 tons in 2020.

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The cobalt price has suffered over the last 18 months. On the LME, cobalt has plunged from around $95,000 per ton as of March 2018 to as low as $25,000 per ton earlier this year.

Cobalt is coveted for, among other applications, its use in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, which will be expected to drive demand for several metals as EV demand rises.

However, plunging prices have proved to be a challenge for miners, even mining giant Glencore.

Earlier this year, Glencore announced it would idle production at its Mutanda copper and cobalt mine — the world’s largest cobalt mine — in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the end of the year.

MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns earlier this year weighed in on the miner’s decision.

“Glencore has a record of taking the hard decisions early and shuttering mines that are loss-making,” he wrote.

“The miner closed zinc mines in 2015 in response to low global prices; its actions are credited with helping the zinc market recover as a result.

“Cobalt demand has traditionally been driven by its use as an alloying element, but it is increasingly being seen as part of the lithium battery demand story because of its role in production of advanced batteries. The electric vehicle (EV) market, though, has failed to match up to its hype this decade. Although both lithium and cobalt prices have risen as a result of battery makers securing their supply chain, the reality is supply is perfectly adequate.”

In fact, LME cobalt has had some upward momentum in recent months, reaching $35,000 per ton this week.

Furthermore, Burns added the fundamentals for the much-coveted cobalt remain strong.

“In the longer term, though the fundamentals remain solid, EV sales will rise over the next decade as prices become more affordable, ranges extend and charging infrastructure improves,” Burns explained. “Glencore is putting Mutanda on care and maintenance for the next two years, after which it will review its options.

“Taking some 20% of global supply out of the market will put a floor under prices and shorten the timeframe over which prices will recover.”

Trafigura’s Bet on Cobalt

Sticking with the cobalt theme, Burns delved into trader Trafigura’s bet on cobalt amid its price resurgence in recent months.

“According to the Financial Times, Trafigura is betting that the Mutoshi mine, which is owned by DRC-based company Chemaf, can become a competitive producer, just as demand starts to rise on the back of a global rise in EV sales,” Burns wrote.

“Trafigura is looking to contribute financing in return for marketing rights on the cobalt. Mutoshi hopes to produce 16,000 tons of cobalt annually by the end of next year, should financing be put in place.”

GOES

The GOES Monthly Metals Index (MMI), which tracks grain-oriented electrical steel, dropped five points for a November reading of 181.

The GOES price fell to 2.6% month over month to $2,499/mt as of Nov. 1.

AK Steel, the only U.S. producer of electrical steel, recently reported its third-quarter financial results. In the third quarter, the company’s stainless/electrical segment saw shipments of 187,900 tons, down from 206,600 tons in Q3 2018.

Meanwhile, for the nine months ending Sept. 30, AK Steel’s stainless/electrical segment saw shipments of 592,900 tons, down from 628,800 tons during the same timeframe in 2018.

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Actual Metal Prices and Trends

The U.S. steel plate price fell 7.1% month over month to $684/st as of Nov. 1.

Chinese steel plate fell marginally to $572.71/mt. Korean steel plate jumped 1.3% to $555.83/mt. Japanese steel plate fell 0.2% to $796.27/mt.

The Chinese silicon price increased 1.6% to $1,463.76/mt.

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The Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) showed mixed price movements in October, with declines outweighing increases for a one-point index drop to 66.

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U.S. steel prices continued to weaken during October, possibly reaching a new bottom.

Prices appeared to bottom out back in July (with the exception of plate), especially with price gains seen during August and early September.

Then, weakness set in again throughout September.

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

Plate prices dropped by another 14% since late August’s high price of $799/st down to $684/st, with prices near those for CRC. While plate prices are closer in line with historical pricing norms, plate prices tend to fall below CRC prices, despite being equal at this time.

HRC prices also looked particularly weak recently, dropping 18% to $483/st from the late August  price of $590/st.

While CRC and HDG also dropped below July values to reach new 2019 lows, recent declines were milder (but still significant). CRC and HDG prices dropped 10% and 11%, respectively, over the past couple of months, since reaching higher prices in early September/late August.

U.S. capacity utilization continues to hold above the critical 80% mark, at 80.3%, based on year-to-date production through Nov. 2. Production of 81.6 million tons during that period is up 2.5% year over year, according to statistics from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Chinese Prices Fail to Gain Momentum

Chinese steel prices looked flat overall but were down slightly of late.

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

While prices failed to gain any upward momentum, price declines during the past month or two were mild.

Comparing average August prices to early November prices, cumulative declines ranged between 3.3%-5.4% over the period, with HDG and HRC dropping most (at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively). CRC dropped 4.6% and plate by 3.3%.

U.S.-China CRC Spread Narrows Again, Nears Long-Term Low

With U.S. prices dropping more steeply than Chinese prices during the past few months, the spread between prices on key commodity forms narrowed once more.

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

Looking at the above chart showing the spread, valued in U.S. dollars per standard ton, we can see the spread dropped to an absolute value of $29/st — its lowest since December 2017’s value of $22/st.

The red line represents average costs associated with imports, indicating at this time U.S. prices should discourage imports by virtue of being relatively affordable.

The purple line represents the theoretical impact of tariff costs (to be adjusted based on actual tariff rates), which render an additional price buffer for domestic producers (in terms of increasing the price that can be charged before imports look more attractive).

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

In contrast to HRC, the CRC spread continues to exceed levels expected to discourage imports (pre-tariffs), with the spread remaining above $90/st — our theoretical average per standard ton cost associated with importing.

However, prices dropped below the purple line, indicating the tariff creates an import buffer for CRC at a tariff rate of 25% (based on current price differentials).

U.S. Commodity Steel Imports Decline

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, imports of hot roll sheets totaled 151,330 metric tons in September, compared to 157,636 tons in August. September imports of HRC decreased by 15.5%, from 179,105 metric tons in September 2018.

Imports of cold roll sheets totaled 124,286 metric tons in September, compared to 126,704 in August. Compared to September 2018, imports of CRC dropped by around 19.2%, down from 153,728 metric tons the year prior.

On a monthly basis, increased imports came primarily from Mexico, Canada and Turkey. Imports from Korea, Japan and Spain decreased last month.

In terms of year-to-date figures through August, steel imports totaled 18.8 million metric tons compared with 21.7 million metric tons during the first eight months of 2018.

HRC imports decreased the most, while black plate, line pipe and tin-free steel imports increased the most.

On a year-to-date basis through August, imports from Canada declined, while increases occurred from Brazil, Spain and Ukraine.

Chinese Steel Production Increases

Based on data from the World Steel Association (WSA), global production increases slowed in September.

Production from January through September of this year reached 1,391.2 million tons, up by 3.9% compared to the same period of last year. However, last month, the year-to-date increase measured 4.6% for the January-August period.

Year-to-date increases in Asia totaled 6.3% over the period, while E.U. production contracted by 2.8%. North American production of 90.6 million tons translated into a small increase of 0.3%.

September crude steel production declined in most major producer countries compared with September 2018, with the exception of China, India and Italy.

Crude production in China decreased to 82.8 million tons in September, compared with August production levels of 87.251 million tons, but increased by 2.2% compared with September 2018. India’s production increased by 1.6% to 9 million tons in September compared with last year, while Italy produced 2.2 million tons, a 1.1% increase compared with September 2018.

Japan’s September production dropped by 4.5% compared with September 2018, falling to 8 million tons. South Korea saw a drop of 2.7% during the same monthly comparison period, to 5.7 million tons. A decline of 4% hit German production, with 3.4 million tons produced, while France’s production dropped by 10.2% to 1.2 million tons.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Global production levels remain higher, primarily driven by high Chinese production, while demand still looks weaker.

If manufacturing gains continue in China, we could see some pricing momentum return. Some signs point in that direction; as of yet, demand has not yet pushed prices higher.

Buying organizations interested in tracking industrial metals prices with ease will want to request a demo of the all-new MetalMiner Insights platform.

Buying organizations seeking more insight into longer-term steel price trends may want to read MetalMiner’s Annual Metal Buying Outlook.

Free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook

Actual Raw Steel Prices and Trends

Steel prices showed mixed movements in October.

Korean scrap prices registered another large drop this month — following last month’s 16.9% decrease — falling another 30.2% to $81/mt. However, Korean pig iron prices increased by 2.8% to $368/mt.

U.S. shredded scrap prices also decreased again this month, falling 11.4% to $225/st.

The U.S. Midwest HRC futures spot price dropped 5.2% to $495/st, while the Midwest HRC futures three-month price increased by 3.6% to $549/st.

LME billet three-month prices dropped 2.3% to $239/st.

Once again this month, Chinese prices in the index showed mixed, generally mild movements.

China billet prices increased by 1.6%, to $496/mt, while HRC prices decreased by 1.2% to $499/mt. Coking coal prices dropped by 5.4% to $248/mt, the largest Chinese price decline this month, while iron ore prices increased by 1.6% to around $63 per dry metric ton.

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This morning in metals news, the U.S.’s steel capacity utilization rate is 80.3% for the year through Nov. 9, up to 40 layoffs are coming at U.S. Steel’s Minnesota taconite operations and a South African steel plant operated by ArcelorMittal is being shut down.

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Capacity Utilization Reaches 80.3%

The U.S. steel industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 80.5% for the week ending Nov. 9, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Capacity utilization for the year to date was 80.3%.

The sector produced 1.86 million tons of steel for the week ending Nov. 9, down 2.2% on a year-over-year basis and down 1.4% from the previous week.

Up to 40 Layoffs Coming at U.S. Steel’s Minnesota Plants

Challenging market conditions are prompting U.S. Steel to lay off up to 40 nonunion workers at two Minnesota taconite plants, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported.

According to the report, the Minntac and Keetac mines employ a total of approximately 2,200 workers.

ArcelorMittal to Shutter Saldanha Plant

Steelmaker ArcelorMittal will close its Saldanha steel plant in South Africa, India Today reported.

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“This difficult decision was taken in the context of constructive ongoing engagements with key stakeholders, including government and organised labour, to find alternative solutions to the dire situation in the South African steel industry,” the company was quoted as saying.

The Stainless Steel Monthly Metals Index (MMI) dropped again this month, by one point to 87.

The drop follows last month’s three-point decline to 88 on the heels of August’s five-year high of 91.

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LME nickel prices continued to move sideways overall, while slowly dropping from price surges that hit the metal recently due to future supply concerns.

Since hitting a peak closing price of $18,100 in early September, prices dropped by around 10% during the past two months.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and FastMarkets

Based on a longer-term look at price data, prices exceed an eight-year average price of $13,572/mt (corresponding to the graph’s timeline) which is represented by the blue line:

Source: MetalMiner analysis of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and FastMarkets

Trading volumes tapered off during recent weeks, indicating sideways movement could continue.

Prices still remain high compared to the longer-term average; therefore, prices could also continue to drift lower, although some analysts expect prices to remain high.

In fact, over the long term, prices keep rising, with price bottoms progressively rising since 2016.

SHFE Nickel Prices Drop Slightly from September High Prices

Like LME prices, SHFE nickel prices remained higher but drifted back down from recent high prices.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets

Since hitting a peak high of CNY 146,850/mt in early September, SHFE nickel prices dropped back by around 11% over the course of roughly two months.

The SHFE nickel price dropped to CNY 130,320/mt in early November.

Global Supply Chains React to High Nickel Prices

China’s Jinchuan Group recently commented that its mine in Qinghai would help supply the company this year. Therefore, the export ban on Indonesian mined nickel will not impact the company’s operations significantly, according to Reuters.

The company’s joint venture laterite project in Indonesia ramped up this year, with the first ferronickel output in sight. However, an official launch date for the project, which is expected to have an annual capacity of 10,000 tons, has not yet been announced.

Mining output from the Philippines looks set to pick up, helped by higher prices. Higher prices make compliance more affordable as the country seeks to transition away from open pit mining. The government continues to regulate the industry stringently, constraining expectations of large output gains.

Forecasts call for modest growth in output, by around 2.5% per year annually through 2028, as reported by Reuters.

Tsingshan Holding Group Co., a top Chinese stainless steel producer, faced scrutiny recently for making large purchases of nickel from LME warehouses.

Chinese stainless competitors accused the company of manipulating the market, while the company could have made the advanced purchases to shore up future stocks ahead of the 2020 Indonesian export ban.

At any rate, large rounds of nickel purchases by the company appeared to impact prices; the situation is under examination by the LME.

China’s Stainless Sector Expected to See the Biggest Impact of 2020 Nickel Shortage

Given that most nickel ends up in stainless steel production, and since the majority of stainless steel gets produced in China, stainless steel production will be a key area impacted by a nickel shortage. The uptick in production in the Philippines is not expected to fully compensate for a drop in Indonesian supply.

According to data from the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), stainless crude output increased in H1 2019 by 1.9% compared to H1 2018. That increase came entirely from China, with an 8.5% production expansion to 14.4 million tons for the first half of the year.

China’s gains offset output declines reported in all other global regions, which fell in the range of 3.4% to 6.4%.

Domestic Stainless Steel Market

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

Stainless 304 and 316 NAS surcharges stayed higher recently after rising during the past few months due to nickel price increases.

However, 316 surcharges dropped back slightly to $1.06/pound in November (compared to $1.08/pound during October). Surcharges for 304 held at $0.74/pound.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Nickel prices remained higher this month; therefore, industrial buying organizations need to stay alert for the right opportunity to purchase.

Buying organizations interested in tracking industrial metals prices with greater ease will want to request a demo of the all-new MetalMiner Insights platform.

Buying organizations seeking more insight into longer-term industrial metals price trends may want to read MetalMiner’s Annual Metal Buying Outlook.

Download your free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook now.

Keep up to date on everything going on in the world of trade and tariffs via MetalMiner’s Trade Resource Center.

Actual Stainless Steel Prices and Trends

The LME primary three-month nickel price dropped only mildly this month — following last month’s 6.8% correction — by 2.4% to $16,800/mt.

India’s primary nickel price dropped by 4.5% to $16.90/kilogram.

China’s primary nickel price increased by 1% to $19,356/mt. Other Chinese prices in the index generally increased in the range of 1.6% to 2.8%, with the exception of FeMo lumps, which dropped by 12.9% this month to $16,201/mt, and FeCr lumps, which increased 6.6% to $1,649/mt.

Indexed Korean prices increased 2.8% with stainless steel coil 430 CR 2B and 304 CR 2B at $1,539/mt and $2,480/mt, respectively.

The U.S. 316 and 304 Allegheny Ludlum stainless surcharges fell slightly — by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively — to $1.10/pound and $0.77/pound.

This morning in metals news, a Chinese firm is poised to take over the insolvent British Steel, Chinese iron ore futures were down Monday and speakers at a recent convention in Budapest weighed in on the stainless steel market.

Jingye to Buy British Steel

After talks with Turkey’s Ataer Holding fell apart, Chinese firm Jingye Steel has reportedly signed a deal to rescue British Steel, the BBC reported.

British Steel was put into forced liquidation in May, setting off a bidding process for the ailing steelmaker.

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According to the BBC, Jingye plans to £1.2 billion in British Steel.

The deal is pending and still requires regulatory approval, according to a statement by the Official Receiver.

“Completion of the contract is conditional on a number of matters, including gaining the necessary regulatory approvals,” the Official Receiver said. “The parties are working together to conclude a sale as soon as reasonably practicable.

“The business will continue to trade as normal during the period between exchange and completion. Support from employees, suppliers and customers since the liquidation has been a critical factor in achieving this outcome.”

Chinese Iron Ore Futures Slide

According to Reuters, Chinese iron ore futures fell by as much as 3.1% on Monday.

The most-traded iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 2.1% to 594 yuan ($84.93) per ton.

Rising Nickel, Falling Stainless Steel

At the recent BIR World Recycling Convention Round-Table Sessions held in Budapest, speakers delved into the seemingly curious current relationship between nickel prices and stainless steel values.

According to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at INTL FCStone, stainless steel production is forecast to rise 2% this year, with demand projected to rise 16% over the next five years, Recycling Today reported.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

Another guest speaker at the event, Olivier Masson, said the stainless steel market is going through a “relatively soft patch,” partially impacted by a shift in trading patterns as a result of the U.S.’s Section 232 tariffs and China’s exports of hot-rolled material, according to the Recycling Today report.

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Editor’s Note: This article has been corrected to reflect the most recent AISI capacity utilization rates and the price delta between the ROW and the US.

Judging by the plunging share price of steel producers and the collapse in steel prices from $1,006 per ton just over two years ago to $557 now, it would seem that Steelmageddon — the term famously coined by Bank of America Merrill Lynch — is upon us.

Or is it?

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A recent Fortune article puts steel producers at fault for rushing to restart idled capacity and even investing in new facilities following President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 25% import duty in 2018.

The measure did meet its objective of lifting capacity utilization from 73% to 80%, as domestic steel mills became more competitive behind the tariff barrier. Though utilization rates dipped in late August through mid-October, they have since come back above 80%.

If that were the end of the story, it is possible steel producers would still be able to play the market by maximizing sales with their 25% buffer against imported steel.

As exemptions have been granted to major trading partners such as Canada and Mexico, that has minimized the benefits of the tariffs for domestic producers. Initially, U.S. producers were at best only 1-2% below the price of imported steel, taking the majority of the 25% as increased profit.

But today, the price delta between the ROW and the U.S. is virtually nonexistent.

Some would argue a global trade war waged by the president, specifically but not exclusively with China, has also contributed to a slowing of steel demand. The counter-argument suggests that while we have seen a drop from 2018, the reality is that we might be at the end of a long-running expansionary business cycle that would have seen slower demand anyway.

The article argues the rise in domestic steel prices has made some U.S. manufacturers less competitive for both domestic sales and their exports. But our own data suggests that 12 out of 18 manufacturing sectors in 2018 had record profits, despite tariffs.

Now, steel plants are being idled again as oversupply is depressing prices below the level seen even before the imposition of the 25% import tariff.

CNN reported U.S. Steel recently announced it would temporarily shut down a blast furnace at its venerable Gary, Indiana facility, another at a facility near Detroit and idle a third plant in Europe due to weak demand and oversupply.

Steel producers’ earnings have headed south in lockstep with falling demand.

Fortune states the combined earnings of U.S. Steel, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics and Nucor tumbled more than 50% in the first two quarters of this year. Capacity utilization dipped back below the 80% target primarily in September and October but has since recovered to 81.6% according to the latest AISI data for the week ending Nov. 2 and year-to-date capacity utilization reached 80.3% compared with 77.5% from a year ago.

The basis of the Section 232 justification was that the U.S. needed to maintain a level of investment and capability in the steel industry as a matter of national security, that certain steels were critical for military and strategic requirements.

Although the defense secretary at the time, James Mattis, said the military needed just 3% of U.S. production of steel and aluminum and that imports didn’t hinder its ability to protect the nation, there are some countries – the U.K. is an example — where the domestic steel industry has been allowed to wither so significantly that it now relies on imports of critical defense materials, like steel, for the hulls of its nuclear submarines.

A better counter would be to question whether tariffs were and remain the best way to protect investment and capability in those strategic areas of production.

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Either way, a global slowdown, coupled with a rush to return capacity to production, has created an oversupplied market in which steelmakers have suffered.

Nor will demand return anytime soon if the World Steel Association is correct.

The association forecast U.S. steel demand will slow to 1% in 2019 (from 2.1% growth last year). In 2020, growth is expected to crawl to just 0.4%, quite possibly prompting the closure of yet more mills and a return to pre-tariff levels of profitability and capacity utilization.

That’s not what the market or the industry wanted. However, to answer the headline, until we see a crash in the steel capacity utilization rate, it’s hard to argue Steelmageddon has arrived.

Scanrail/Adobe Stock

Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week that was and some of the metals coverage here on MetalMiner, including coverage of: Freeport-McMoRan’s use of artificial intelligence (AI), U.S. steel production, aluminum prices, U.S. automotive sales, construction spending and India’s decision to back away from the proposed RCEP trade pact.

Keep up to date on everything going on in the world of trade and tariffs via MetalMiner’s Trade Resource Center.

• MetalMiner released its Monthly Metal Outlook for November.
• MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns on miner Freeport-McMoRan’s leveraging of AI at an Arizona copper mine.
• For the week ending Nov. 2, the U.S. steel sector posted a capacity utilization rate of 81.6%.
• The London Metal Exchange is enacting changes geared toward warehousing rules and reporting, which the exchange hopes will “offer the optimum combination of enhancements to encourage more stocks in to LME warehouses, provide greater transparency as to global levels of inventory, and bring market-wide positive effects.”
• U.S. automotive sales were forecast to fall by less than 1% in October.
• MetalMiner’s Belinda Fuller delved into aluminum market trends from the last month.
• Why have aluminum prices moved upward despite slumping demand? Investors may be struggling to read the fundamentals, Burns explained.
• U.S. construction spending fell 2% year over year in September, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• India has decided to back away from the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), much to the relief of the country’s steel producers.
• Lynas Corp, the largest rare earths firm outside of China, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia’s MARA Corporation to, it says, attract downstream industries and customers to Malaysia.

Free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook