Copper MMI: Copper Prices Stable, but Volatility Looms

The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) moved sideways, rising by a modest 1.45% from May to June. Though copper prices today appear mostly stable, significant opportunity for volatility remains.

Copper Prices Open June With Uncertainty

Comex copper prices appeared surprisingly stable in the first weeks of June as they took a pause from the heightened volatility that had plagued the market since the start of the year. While it remained sideways, the trend showed modest optimism. As of June 9, prices sat roughly 10 cents higher than where they started the month. 

U.S. trade policy largely ruled copper market sentiment during the first half of 2025. For instance, the possibility of U.S. copper tariffs fueled a strong rally during Q1. However, this had at least partially collapsed by April. That drop followed the announcement of reciprocal tariffs that risked a much gloomier demand outlook for the industrial metals sector.

Even if the pause in reciprocal tariffs proves only temporary, it still allowed copper prices to claw back some of their gains before stabilizing in May. Copper prices today, like other indices, seem to be awaiting more clarity.

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U.S. Trade Policy to Decide Copper Price Trend

While there are plenty of other factors that shape the global copper market, few seem to be getting much attention since the start of the year. All eyes remain fixed on the U.S. trade negotiations currently underway, all of which could have big implications for U.S. demand depending on how they shake out. 

Get Ahead of the Trump Tariffs and Metal Price Increases with MetalMiner’s Free Guide

Discussions with China resumed on June 10, offering some optimism to markets. China faces the most significant tariff rates, even though most remain on pause for now. This makes the ongoing negotiations among the most consequential to the fate of the global economy in the coming year. Beyond China, there is a long list of other countries in talks with the U.S. as well. 

Investment fund positioning has largely echoed cautious optimism. According to data from the LME, funds remain net long, suggesting the overall expectation that copper prices will appreciate in the months ahead. However, the bias sits at a noticeably lower level than where it stood at its peak earlier this year or in the year past.

As large position holders, these funds hold significant sway over market direction. This makes their overall sentiment critical to determining copper prices today, tomorrow, and in the future.

U.S. Copper Tariffs Remain in Limbo

As markets follow trade negotiations, potential U.S. copper tariffs still loom on the horizon. The White House has offered little clarity as to where it stands with the possible duties since announcing an investigation into copper imports in February. The impact of the announcement has been playing out across global exchanges, with Comex copper prices today securing and maintaining a historically wide premium over their LME counterparts.

After years of parity, Comex prices have averaged nearly 9% higher since the start of 2025. At its highest in early April, Comex prices held a more than 20% premium over LME prices. As Comex prices trended sideways over the last months, the recent gains in LME prices helped narrow that spread to an extent. However, as of early June, it appears that investors are still pricing in a roughly 7% likelihood that copper tariffs will hit the U.S.

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Shifting Trade Flows and U.S. Demand

Beyond pricing dynamics, possible copper tariffs have had a notable influence over exchange inventories, helping shift trade flows to the United States. Comex copper inventories now tower over both SHFE and LME inventories, which is historically atypical considering the relative immaturity of the Comex copper contract. 

U.S. demand remains strong amid the proliferation of data centers and the growing need for electrification. That said, the sharp uptick in Comex stocks also poses a threat to Comex copper prices should the U.S. decide not to impose copper tariffs. Elevated stocks will offer no support to prices, especially if ongoing trade negotiations sour demand expectations over the coming months in addition to forgoing copper tariffs.

However, much like the currently sideways copper price trend, much remains undecided. This means volatility likely awaits the copper market in the second half of the year, a perhaps unwelcome disruption to the brief moment of calm markets have enjoyed over the last month.

Copper Prices Today: Noteworthy Price Moves

Read what’s next for copper prices in this month’s Monthly Metals Outlook. The report provides both short-term and long-term forecasts plus buying strategies, giving you the edge to navigate market volatility and maximize cost savings. See a free sample report and opt into a subscription.

• Chinese copper wire scrap prices reversed to the upside, experiencing a 5.56% increase to $10,163 per metric ton as of June 1.
• Chinese copper scrap prices rose by 4.42% to $10,814 per metric ton.
• LME primary three-month copper prices witnessed a 2.51% increase to $9,605 per metric ton.
• Meanwhile, U.S. copper producer prices for grade 102 slid 2.91% to $6.00 per pound.