Stuart Burns

Cracks beginning to show in OPEC position on production cuts

In a relatively rare example of disagreement — or, at least, such public disagreement — usually close allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have failed to reach agreement last week on an extension to the oil output cuts scheduled to expire in April 2022. Saudi Arabia and the other 23 members of […]

Post-Brexit Britain aims to fulfill its commitments to free trade

In one of its first tests as a free trading global economy after Brexit, Britain achieved a middling mark this past week. Trade minister Liz Truss accepted its independent, newly established Trade Remedies Authority recommendation to scrap some quotas on imports that had been carried over from the European Union in 2019 prior to Brexit. […]

Don’t trust stock levels to reflect metal demand

Analysis, specifically what’s termed fundamental analysis of metal supply and demand, and its impact in driving metal prices, is often a blunt tool. That is particularly true since the financial crisis. Then, traders and hedge funds discovered the wheeze of buying spot and selling far forward (typically from 18-month to a few years) when the […]

Zinc losing support with further declines expected

The zinc price has defied expectations that oversupply would put so much downward pressure on prices that last month’s $3,100/ton high would be the peak for years to come. Although the zinc price has drifted off those highs, it is currently just under $2,900 per metric ton for cash and three-month on the LME, zinc […]

The steel market in both the United States and Europe continues to experience supply constraints

The steel market is running two diverging narratives. In the U.S., the market remains extremely tight. Mill lead times are out to the end of this year. Furthermore, prices are set to stay high into 2022. The situation is not dissimilar in Europe. In Europe, the steel market is seeing a similar post-pandemic bounceback, supply […]

The aluminum shortfall could potentially turn into a surplus later this year.

However you slice and dice the statistics — and there are numerous ways stats can be sliced and diced — the global aluminum market is tight. Whether we look at primary ingot, extrusion billet or rolling slab intermediates, or semi-finished sheets/plates, tubes and extrusions mill lead times are long and conversion premiums are high. Meanwhile, […]

China suggests it could release state reserves of base metals

It would seem Beijing only has to speak and the market reacts — this time, it’s about base metals. Worried by what it sees as excessive inflation in commodity prices, which it fears will lead through into factory gate increases, China warned speculators last month over “excessive speculation.” The warning from China’s National Food and […]

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