Global Precious Metals MMI: monthly index rises on strong palladium prices

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 6.8% for this month’s reading. This represents the second month in a row of precious metals inswz increases. Last month the index increased by 4.1%.

Palladium, and to a lesser extent, platinum drove the index higher. Most of the other precious metals held flat or fell.
The palladium price rise this month may have more to do with the anticipated Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although MetalMiner has covered this geopolitical event through the lens of other metals, particularly steel and aluminum, Russia supplies 35% of the world’s palladium. Palladium, as opposed to platinum, has made its way into more newer cars. It has become the “precious metal of choice” for catalytic converters.
The increase in January’s Global Precious Metal MMI comes down to strong palladium demand from the automotive industry. Constrained supply also plays a role.
The Global Precious Metals MMI along with all inflation/deflation indexes from MetalMiner are available as a free monthly report.
Automakers will dictate where palladium and platinum go from here
Although some automotive shortages have eased, automakers give a cloudy view on production forecasts beyond the current quarter. Toyota and Honda, in particular appear cautious while Ford and GM appear more confident about production numbers.
The truck blockade of the Windsor Bridge, a key trade route between Canada and the US, dissipated Saturday only to continue as of press time. Nonetheless the blockade did impact inbound raw material supply to the automotive industry.
Gold – the real story
Now that the US military believes Putin has confirmed his intentions to invade Ukraine, gold looks particularly poised to rise based on technical analysis.  Silver too could follow in gold’s footsteps, should war ensue.

 Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading View data
 Fed tapering
With tapering already in effect and more to come, gold watchers have likely anticipated falling prices. Moreover, rising interest rates have also historically put a damper on gold prices. But today’s markets look a bit different. Many metal prices have moved without explanation.
MetalMiner uses artificial intelligence and technical analysis to identify buying strategies for a full range of precious metals.
Key indicators
MetalMiner’s own technical analysis/forecasting team has their eyes on the Russian/Ukranian situation, the VIX and key economic indicators such as housing starts, which have started to slow. These indicators and how traders respond to these will dictate where gold goes next.
Actual prices and trends
China palladium increased the most jumping early 23% to $83.33/gram from $67.83/gram. US palladium increased similarly, up 20.22% from $1845/ounce to $2218/ounce.
Silver fell .15% from $23.30/ounce to $23.26/ounce. Gold, meanwhile moved similarly at .15% from $1829.80/ounce to $1832.60/ounce.
 

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