Stainless MMI: Stainless Prices Continue to Tick Upward as Q1 Progresses

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Source: Maksym Yemelyanov

The Stainless Steel Monthly Metals Index (MMI) increased again this month by 4.3% to 71, up again after last month’s 11.7% gain.

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Once again, nickel price increases provided an impetus for rising prices. This month, prices increased for all the metals in the stainless steel basket across the board, ranging from 0.2-10%. U.S. stainless steel surcharges increased slightly.

LME Nickel

LME nickel prices. Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets

LME nickel prices started to rise again following a brief downward trend in the first part of February; however, uptrend volumes are weaker than during recent price increases.

Despite weaker volume, prices finally surpassed the $13,300/mt price point, surging past $13,600 in a single day of trading and potentially signaling an underlying bullishness in the nickel market.

However, the price retraced once more toward the well-trodden $13,300/mt level in the days following the price surge.

Domestic Stainless Steel Market

This month the 304/304L-Coil and 316/316L-Coil NAS surcharges increased by 0.3% and 1.96%, respectively, reversing the previous downward trend dating back to July 2018.

Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

It remains to be seen whether this is a seasonal adjustment or a reversal in trend as we move into the last month of Q1, which is when prices tend to cyclically rise.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Stainless steel prices are rising — but is this a new change in direction or a temporary price increase based on the annual cyclical business cycle?

With some weakness reported in the global economy by the OECD last week, it will be interesting to see whether this is the start of a new trend in higher prices or just a flattening out from previous price declines.

Actual Stainless Steel Prices and Trends

All of the metals included in the Stainless MMI increased in price this month.

Chinese Ferro Alloys FeMo Lumps registered the greatest increase at 10.14%, while Chinese Ferro Alloy FeCr Lumps increased 0.2%.

Korean stainless steel coil (430 CR 2B) increased in price by 5.92%.

The three nickel prices included in the MetalMiner IndX(™) also increased across the board again this month, with increases ranging from 4.5–5.5% for LME, Chinese, and Indian prices. However, the increase this month dropped from high rates of change last month, which were in the 14.76-17.39% range.

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Chinese stainless steel 304 and 316 scrap prices registered increases of 0.2%.

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