The bears are back in the metal markets, and one of their prime motivators is this year’s dismal prospects for China. A note in the FT’s Unhedged today explored the country’s “impossible trilemma” of achieving 5.5% GDP growth, reaching a stable debt-to-GDP ratio, and meeting zero-COVID initiatives. When you combine this with the reality that […]
Stuart Burns
First new US integrated aluminium rolling mill in 40 years
Novelis recently announced construction of a state-of-the-art, $2.5 billion recycling and aluminum rolling facility in Baldwin County, Alabama. In addition, a statement in Made in Alabama suggested that the 3,000-acre South Alabama Mega facility will create approximately 1,000 jobs. According to the Novelis, the site will be the first fully-integrated aluminum mill built in the […]
Tin Price Forecast Signals Continued Short Supply
Despite a strong rebound in output, the tin market is still dangerously short on supply. How will this affect the tin price forecast? Experts are rushing to weigh in. According to Reuters, the International Tin Association (ITA) reported that global refined tin production increased by 11% to 378,400 metric tons last year. But while output […]
The Metals Forecast: Are The Bears Back in Town?
Following a strongly inflationary metal environment in Q1, Q2 2022 is looking like a whole different ballgame. Indeed, it’s no secret that the global economy is currently facing a number of major challenges. Alone, none of these would be enough to derail us from last year’s strong rebound. When added together, however, they’re helping to […]
Analyzing Recession Fears for 2022
Recession fears have so far been focused largely on the US. However, a recent note from Capital Economics to their clients predicts that we’re much more likely to see a recession in Europe. Are US Recession Fears Really Valid? Most US economists’ recession fears resulted from last month’s brief inversion in the spread between two-year […]
The Aluminum Price Forecast: China is Coming
Don’t worry – this isn’t another “reds-under-the-bed” story. Rather, it’s a look into how Chinese aluminum semis are quickly becoming the market’s main price setting (at least in Europe). With Russia more or less out of the picture and domestic mills booked up for months, China is the only swing producer with capacity to spare. […]
Titanium Market Facing Major Supply Constraints
Like other industry insiders, the team here at MetalMiner has paid very close attention to the way international sanctions on Russia are affecting metals markets. When the invasion of Ukraine started, aluminum, zinc, and even steel had been strongly supported. Since early March, those prices have fallen back (as have Russian troops). Despite this, we […]
Is Energy-Intensive Metals Production in Europe Coming to an End?
The extremely high natural gas prices this past winter have left many Europeans reeling. At the time, the increased costs were blamed on a shortage of Russian supplies. Today, many are wondering if the restrictions on gas exports by Russia were intentional. A reminder to Europeans of their vulnerability prior to the invasion of Ukraine, […]
Recession Fears: Could the Fed Risk Too Much Too Fast?
Of late, all talk related to the US economy seems focused on inflation. And while the Fed has continually issued statements regarding interest rates, the organization seems split on how to proceed. Moreover, concerns are rising that too much intervention too soon could actually push the economy into a recession next year. In the meantime, […]
Let’s Not Forget China
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shock waves throughout global metals markets. However, it’s important to remember that the most consistent longer-term driver of metal prices is Chinese demand. That’s why it’s surprising to see how little attention has been paid to the world’s largest consumer and producer of metals in recent months. It’s understandable […]
