Metal Price Volatility Isn’t the Risk, Being Unprepared Is
For steel, aluminum and copper buyers, the biggest risk in 2026 is not metal price volatility itself. It’s the metal price forecasting methods behind it.
The bigger risk is being unprepared for how volatility affects budgets, supplier pricing, sourcing decisions, forecasting confidence and profit margins.
Procurement teams cannot control tariffs, geopolitical instability, supplier behavior or energy markets.
What they can control is how well they understand their exposure, how prepared they are for multiple outcomes, and how effectively procurement and finance work together when conditions change.
Join the Discussion
MetalMiner and AEGIS Hedging will explore these challenges during their “Metal Price Volatility Isn’t the Risk, Being Unprepared Is” discussion, taking place on June 24, 2026, at 11:00 AM EST.
Procurement and finance leaders will gain practical insights into metal sourcing exposure analysis, metal forecasting confidence, volatility preparedness and risk management in uncertain markets.
Why Are Metal Procurement Teams Struggling With Volatility in 2026?
Most procurement teams are managing more uncertainty than they expected when they built their budgets and sourcing plans.
The challenge is not simply higher prices or lower prices. It is price uncertainty. The challenge is making confident decisions when multiple variables are changing simultaneously.
Procurement leaders are currently navigating:
- Tariff uncertainty
- Supplier pricing volatility
- Geopolitical instability
- Material availability
- Energy-market uncertainty
- Budget pressure
- Margin pressure
- Forecasting challenges
These factors influence steel, aluminum, and copper sourcing decisions every day.
Questions procurement leaders are asking:
- Should we buy now or wait?
- Should we increase inventory?
- Should we hedge?
- Are supplier increases justified?
- Are our forecasts still valid?
- How much of our spend is exposed?
What Is the Biggest Risk Facing Industrial Metal Buyers?
The biggest risk is not rising steel prices, increasing aluminum premiums, or copper market volatility.
The biggest risk is not having price certainty and then subsequently missing budgets and margins. Another significant risk facing organizations involves not having all metal spend under management. In other words, there are some metal purchases not part of a formal sourcing strategy or program causing sudden and unpredictable spot purchases.
Many procurement teams spend significant time discussing market direction but less time evaluating how market changes impact their specific business.
Exposure includes:
- Raw material-specific risks
- Supplier-specific risks
- Budget sensitivity
- Margin sensitivity
- Inventory exposures
- Contract exposures
Questions to ask:
- What percentage of our spend is metal-related?
- Which metals and raw materials create the highest risk?
- Which suppliers create the most risk?
- How much of our spend is part of a formal contract?
- How do I avoid buying at the top of the market?
Organizations that can answer those questions typically make better decisions when market conditions become uncertain.
How Do Tariffs, Supplier Pricing and Geopolitical Events Affect Procurement Decisions?
Tariffs, supplier price changes, and geopolitical instability create uncertainty by altering sourcing costs and purchasing decisions.
The challenge is not necessarily the event itself.
The challenge is understanding how exposed your organization is to it.
Procurement teams often need to make decisions before outcomes become fully clear. That means organizations must evaluate risk while operating with incomplete information.
Understanding exposure is often more valuable than trying to predict every policy change, price shift, or metal market development.
Organizations rarely gain an advantage by perfectly forecasting every market event. They gain an advantage by understanding how those events affect budgets, margins and sourcing strategies before they occur.
Why Is Forecasting So Difficult in 2026?
Forecasting has become more difficult because procurement organizations are managing uncertainty from multiple directions at once.
Forecasts must now account for:
- Policy changes
- Geopolitical events
- Energy-market uncertainty
- War related supply disruptions
- Business-specific exposure
Many organizations ask:
“Where will steel, aluminum or copper prices go next?”
However, a more useful question is:
“What happens to our business if prices move differently than our forecast indicates?”
Here are some better forecasting areas to focus on:
- Multiple outcomes
- Exposure analysis
- Financial implications
- Response plans
- Unexpected risk scenarios
The goal of forecasting is not perfect prediction.
The goal is improving decision quality.
What Does Preparedness Actually Look Like?
Preparedness is not prediction.
Preparedness is understanding your organization’s financial exposure before volatility impacts budgets and margins.
Prepared organizations typically understand:
- Their largest areas of metal exposure
- Their most significant supplier risks
- Their budget assumptions
- Their margin sensitivity
- Their response options under different scenarios
Questions procurement and financial leaders should be able to answer:
- What are we exposed to?
- How exposed are we?
- What would happen if conditions worsen?
- What actions would we take?
Preparedness begins with visibility.
Organizations cannot manage risks they cannot clearly identify.
The companies that navigate uncertainty most effectively tend to focus less on predicting every market move and more on understanding how different outcomes could affect their business.
Continuing the Discussion
These are the exact questions MetalMiner and AEGIS Hedging will explore during “Metal Price Volatility Isn’t the Risk, Being Unprepared Is”, taking place on June 24, 2026, at 11:00 AM EST.
Click here to claim your seat.
The discussion will focus on helping procurement and finance leaders better understand exposure, improve forecasting confidence, and make more informed decisions when market conditions become uncertain.
Why Duncan Spillman’s Perspective Matters
Before joining MetalMiner, Duncan Spillman served as Raw Material Purchasing Manager at Honda North America, where he managed sourcing for steel, aluminum, resins and chemicals.
He has personally faced many of the same challenges procurement leaders are dealing with today:
- Budget pressure
- Raw-material volatility
His perspective comes from having sat in the same seat as many sourcing professionals and having managed the real-world consequences of market volatility on budgets, suppliers, and purchasing decisions.
Why Matt Marshall’s Perspective Matters
As President of AEGIS CTA, Matt Marshall has spent more than two decades helping organizations understand commodity market risk, evaluate financial exposure and navigate uncertainty.
His experience spans:
- Commodity-market research
- Trading
- Risk management
- Strategic consulting
Throughout his career, Matt has held leadership roles at organizations including Platts Bentek, Cargill and AEGIS, helping companies better understand exposure, evaluate risk and improve decision-making when markets become unstable.
Why This Combination Matters
Procurement leaders need to answer:
“How do we make better purchasing decisions?”
Finance leaders need to answer:
“How do we better understand and manage risk?”
Together, Duncan and Matt bring perspectives that address both sides of that challenge.
Duncan brings firsthand procurement experience managing metal sourcing, supplier strategy, and budget pressure.
Matt brings decades of expertise in commodity markets, financial exposure analysis, and risk-management strategy.
For organizations navigating today’s uncertainty, understanding both perspectives is often the difference between reacting to volatility and preparing for it.
Final Takeaway
- Steel prices will move
- Aluminum prices will move
- Copper prices will move
- Markets will remain uncertain
However, the organizations that navigate uncertainty most effectively are rarely the ones that predict every market move correctly. They are the ones that understand their exposure, evaluate risk before it becomes a problem, and make decisions with greater visibility and confidence.
Join MetalMiner and AEGIS Hedging for their discussion, “Metal Price Volatility Isn’t the Risk, Being Unprepared Is.”