Author Archives: The MetalMiner Team

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel futures market finally demonstrated increased liquidity during 2018, about five years following its introduction in February 2014.

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Both volume of trading and open interest numbers showed improvement during 2018, as evidenced by increasing trade volumes throughout the year. Additionally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) introduced a new Hot Roil Coil contract.

As a result, there’s been quite a bit of excitement and coverage lately of the HRC futures market — is it warranted?

Looking at Chart 1, since January 2018 or so, the CME HRC finally experienced an uptick in regular daily trading volumes, as demonstrated by the bars along the bottom of this daily settlement price chart.

Chart 1: Trade volumes are increasing, finally hitting a regular stride during 2018.
Source: Quandl.com

The next chart also shows a positive sign for CME HRC futures. Open interest shown by the red line in the chart continues to trend upward, charted along with the daily settle price.

Chart 2: Open interest in CME HRC futures continues to increase.
Source: Quandl.com

Have HRC Prices Moved Similarly to Other Steel Price Indexes?

Taking a full look back at prices of CME HRC against our own MetalMiner IndX(™) price tracking since the inception of the trading product, we see only small amounts of variability between historical MetalMiner IndX(™) HRC prices and CME HRC prices.

Chart 3: The MetalMiner IndX(™) U.S. HRC price versus the CME HRC close of day price, February 2014 to February 2019.
Source: MetalMiner IndX(™) and Fastmarkets

Taking a closer look, the next chart focuses on the year 2014 from the CME HRC’s inception date.

As shown in the first couple of charts, the U.S. HRC price was fairly stable around 2014. Comparatively speaking, the CME HRC price was less stable (although it may have offered a speculative opportunity, as it tended to fall faster than actual prices).

Chart 4: The MetalMiner IndX(™) U.S. HRC price versus the CME HRC close of day price, 2014.
Source: MetalMiner IndX(™) and Fastmarkets

Generally speaking, volatility increased in 2015, as the price dropped into December 2015. Thereafter, the price became more prone to fluctuations, but still traded mostly sideways in a band around the earlier price highs from 2013 and never returned to quite as low a price as it hit in 2015.

In early 2018, the price of HRC increased. Actual prices tracked by MetalMiner’s IndX(™)  seemed less volatile than CME HRC prices. However, prices trended very similarly.

Chart 5: MetalMiner’s U.S. HRC price versus the CME HRC close of day price, 2018.
Source: MetalMiner IndX(™) and Fastmarkets

What Does This Mean for Industrial Buyers?

The CME HRC futures liquidity amped up during 2018, the product’s fifth year on the market.

Volume and open interest increased. CME steel prices tended to follow a fairly stable trajectory, similar to what the major indexes report (e.g. CRU, TSI, Platts, etc).

Furthermore, large organizations with significant planning needs that buy in sizable volumes may benefit from the arbitrage play these contracts allow, as well as the overall benefits of using hedging instruments to lock in margins.

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Thought you had the China supply risks covered? More than one supplier, multiple logistics options, natural disaster contingency planning… yep? Try this: employee arrest and detention.

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Here’s What Happened

As we reported soon after it happened last week, the Bureau of Consular Affairs under the U.S. Department of State has issued a warning of an increased risk of arbitrary arrest and detention when U.S. citizens, particularly those of dual nationality, come to leave China. According to the notice, Chinese authorities have asserted broad authority to prohibit U.S. citizens from leaving China by using ‘exit bans.’ The post states China uses exit bans coercively:

  1. “To compel U.S. citizens to participate in Chinese government investigations,
  2. To lure individuals back to China from abroad, and
  3. To aid Chinese authorities in resolving civil disputes in favor of Chinese parties.”

According to the notice, U.S. citizens may be detained without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime. U.S. citizens may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention for reasons related to “state security.”

Why It Happened

Sounds serious, doesn’t it? But to be fair, the current notice is largely a repeat of one issued the same time last year and China retains a Level 2 caution, according to U.S. authorities — meaning two out of four travelers should “exercise increased caution” when in the country. This is a warning that has at times applied to parts of Europe due to a perceived risk from terrorism.

According to Conde Nast Traveler, the advisory follows high-profile cases in December in which two Canadian businessmen, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, were detained for unspecified reasons, citing a Reuters report. Both Kovrig and Spavor remain in detention in China and are awaiting trial, with the U.S. and Canada calling for their release. In total, some 13 Canadians have been detained of late in moves said to be linked to the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.

Some put the restatement of the travel advisory down to increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China following President Trump’s trade war, but while such issues don’t help, the reality is China has always imposed strict censorship laws and still rigidly controls free speech. It uses such laws in situations that Western societies find arbitrary and unrelated, but the Chinese no doubt brought in the laws with the express intention of giving them a catch-all legal framework to bring leverage if they felt an individual, company or even country was not acting in China’s best interests.

What It Means for Metal Buyers

Buying organizations should, from time to time, be reminded that China is not a benign democracy, but an autocratic single-party state controlled by an increasingly powerful centrist elite.

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The West’s view that China would become progressively more liberal and democratic over time has proved to be fundamentally flawed — and with that realization, our perception of risk for employees and contractors we send or employ there should change too.

The December Monthly Metals Index (MMI) report is in the books.

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While a few sub-indexes saw some gains from November to December — Copper, Global Precious Metals and Automotive MMIs, among them — the real story seemed to be the decline in Raw Steels and Stainless MMIs as we head into the new year.

Several highlights from this month’s report:

  • U.S.-China trade relations still have outsize influence on what’s happening in metals and commodities markets. The U.S. has agreed to hold off on a scheduled tariff hike — from 10% to 25% as of Jan. 1 on $200 billion worth of tariffs imposed in September — as the two parties have launched a 90-day negotiating period.
  • One of the biggest losers was the Raw Steels MMI, dropping 4.6% for the month. The recent slowdown in domestic steel price momentum led to the decline. Domestic steel prices recently decreased sharply on the back of slower demand and softer Chinese prices.
  • LME nickel prices traded lower in November, continuing the six-month downtrend that started back in June 2018, and driving the Stainless MMI down for the month of December.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

Read about all of the above and much more by downloading the December 2018 MMI Report below:

President Donald J. Trump has completed his first 100 days in office and thus far has signed into law 28 pieces of legislation.

While Trump has made traction in some respects, the fate of the nation’s steel industry was still up in the air — that is, until Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum in late April calling on Department of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to prioritize an investigation into the effects of steel imports on U.S. national security.

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Here are three things you should know about this directive and what it could mean for the nation’s steel industry.

The Trade Expansion Act of 1962

The investigation is being conducted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. According to the Department of Commerce, Ross is tasked with determining the following:

  • “Whether steel imports cause American workers to lose jobs needed to meet security requirements of the domestic steel industry;
  • Any negative effects of steel imports on government revenue; and
  • Any harm steel imports cause to the economic welfare of the U.S.”

The Current Situation

Despite an existing steel industry, steel imports saw a 19.6% year-over-year increase in February, and, currently, imported steel accounts for 26% of the U.S. market share, according to the Department of Commerce.

Further, the U.S. steel industry is only operating at 71% capacity, and jobs in the industry has continued to take a steady hit. Read more

The 100-day mark for President Donald Trump’s administration has come and passed. When it comes to the effects of his policies on various markets, only one thing is certain: uncertainty.

That uncertainty also applies to non-ferrous metal markets, which saw a boom in optimism after Trump’s election last year. For example, copper rose to a 15-month high on Nov. 9, 2016. However, that optimism has dwindled through the first few months of his administration, due to lingering uncertainty over the administration’s ability to actuate campaign promises.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

While market fluctuations are a confluence of many forces, beyond what the president does or does not do, the president does have substantial influence, both in word and deed. Thus far, Trump has been more influential in the former, campaigning on a renewed focus on mining (particularly with respect to coal) and significant investment in American infrastructure.

“We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals,” Trump had said during his victory speech in November. “We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.” Read more