Author Archives: Sohrab Darabshaw

India’s steel story continues to shine. The country’s consumption of finished steel goods is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2017 compared with 2016.

According to the World Steel Association (WSA), India’s steel product demand could reach 88.6 million tons in 2017, up from 83.5 million tons in 2016. WSA was also quite positive on India’s steel demand in 2018, projecting a growth of 7.1% to 94.9 million tons.

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Steel consumption in India’s neighboring country China, however, would remain flat in 2017. The WSA estimated a 2% slump in demand for 2018.

The Indian Steel Association, too, has said publicly that the country was well on its way to becoming the second largest consumer of steel, beating the United States to the second spot.

The WSA said in its report that the U.S. was expected to continue to lead the growth in the developed work in 2017-18, based on strong fundamentals, newly announced measures related to fiscal stimuli, and rising infrastructure spending. It has estimated that steel demand in the U.S. will grow by 3% in 2017 to 94.3 million tons and then by 2.9% in 2018 to 97.1 million tons.

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In India, in a further fillip to steel production, the government was contemplating making the use of Indian steel compulsory in all government or public sector funded projects. This would raise the per-capita consumption from 61 kilograms (134.5 pounds) to 160 kilograms (353 pounds) and increase production from 120 million ton to 300 million ton by 2030. The indication of this was recently given by Union Minister for Steel Chaudhary Birender Singh.

After reviewing the performance of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL), the minister told reporters that “stringent measures” like imposing anti-dumping duty and minimum import price (MIP) had led to imports falling by 39% and exports increasing by 57%.

He added that the India’s national policy on steel would be unveiled soon, after receiving approval of the Union Cabinet.

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The move to make use of “Make in India” steel mandatory by government bodies comes in the wake of the central government’s commitment to support the domestic steel sector, which has been incurring losses during the last couple of years due to excess production and dumping of steel products from China into India.

Incidentally, India was aiming for a steel production capacity of 300 million tons by 2030, while the current capacity is 120 million tons and production was 90 million tons.

India’s renewable energy sector just got bigger thanks to an investment from U.K.-owned CDC Group  of up to $100 million to support renewable energy projects.

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The announcement was made by the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industry Strategy Greg Clark at the inaugural India-U.K. Energy for Growth Dialogue in New Delhi on April 6. He also met with India’s Minister for Power, New & Renewable Energy, Coal and Mines, Piyush Goyal, to talk about large-scale, private sector investments between the two countries in the area of energy.

The two ministers agreed that on the power and renewables front, the focus will be on the introduction of performance-improving smart technologies, energy efficiency and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy.

For some time now, CDC Group Plc, the U.K. government’s development finance institution, has made its known that it seeks to set up its own renewable energy platform focused on the eastern part of India, and even neighboring countries such as Bangladesh.

The finance institution is contemplating leveraging its experience in running Globeleq Africa, a company in which it acquired a majority stake in 2015, for green energy investments in Asia. Globeleq has a 1,200-megawatt gren power generation capacity spread across Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania.

As reported by MetalMiner, India aims to generate over half of its electricity through renewable and nuclear energy by 2027. The world’s largest democracy published a draft 10-year national electricity plan in December, which said it aimed to generate 275 gigawatts of renewable energy, and about 85 gw of other non-fossil fuel power such as nuclear energy, by the next decade. This would make up 57% of the country’s total electricity capacity by 2027, more than meeting its commitment to the Paris Agreement of generating 40% of its power through non-fossil fuel means by 2030.

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India has been taking massive forward strides in the renewable energy sector. Already, as per one estimate, it is set to overtake Japan as the world’s third-largest solar power market in 2017.  Taiwanese research firm EnergyTrend predicted that the global solar photovoltaic demand was expected to remain stable at 74 gw in 2017, with the Indian market experiencing sustained growth. The country was expected to add 14% to the global solar photovoltaic demand, the equivalent of the addition of 90 gw over the next five years.

As requested by Japan, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has set up a dispute settlement panel to decide the row over India’s imposition of a safeguard duty on imports of iron and steel products.

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MetalMiner has reported on this case in the past. Japan’s request was made after New Delhi imposed safeguard duties on several iron and steel products, which India claimed violated global trade rules.

India’s finance ministry imposed definitive safeguard duties on imports of hot-rolled flat products of non-alloy steel in coils to counter a surge in imports from several countries, including Japan. India’s stand has been that such cheap imports “caused injury to domestic steel industries.”

As both the nations failed to arrive at a solution, Japan petitioned the WTO for the formation of a dispute resolution panel.

Soon after the WTO announcement, though, India objected to Japan’s WTO request for a “prompt’’ resolution of its dispute against India’s duties on steel imports.

India’s contention is that there’s “no rationale” for treating the dispute any more urgently than other WTO disputes it’s involved in and the same standard should be applied to all disputes.

In December, Japan dragged India to the WTO against measures taken on imports of iron and steel products. Incidentally, Japan is the second-largest steel producer in the world.

The dispute assumes some amount of significance as both India and Japan signed a comprehensive free trade agreement, meant to avoid this type of arbitration, in 2011.

This was Japan’s second attempt to ask the WTO to set up a panel after the first was blocked by India in March. India expressed disappointment over Japan’s insistence on the WTO panel despite its “sincere efforts” to resolve the matter in a bilateral manner.

It normally takes about 20 months to settle a dispute at the WTO, but according to WTO rules, in cases of urgency, the parties to the dispute, panels and the Appellate Body make every effort to accelerate the proceedings.

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The Japanese government reportedly estimated that the tariffs could cost Japanese steel companies about $220 million through March 2018.

The safeguard duties imposed by India also gave rise to complaints from other WTO members.

The seesaw battle between steelmakers in China and India took a new twist recently with a report in a Chinese newspaper calling the Indian government on its “protectionist” stance on steel.

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The state-run Global Times newspaper said in a report, referring to India’s decision to award its first bullet train project to Japan, that India needed to have a “sober” look vis-a-vis China when it came to solutions for India’s proposed railway network revamp or its entirely new high-speed rail project.

The high-speed “bullet train” project is likely to commence in 2018 on a 315-mile (508-kilometer) route between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. It’s slated to be completed by 2023.

India has been waging a war against cheap steel imports into the country for some time now, with Chinese steel companies high on their bad guy list. The government imposed taxes in various forms not to protect its own steel industry, but to equalize import prices to production costs. Over 80% of the funding for the project is coming from Japanese investments. Read more

Late last week, Indian media was rife with reports of Vedanta Resources PLC Chairman Anil Agarwal making a “surprise” bid for about 13% of mining giant Anglo American PLC for $2.4 billion, even as the British newspapers headlined the development as a “raid.” Anglo American owns De Beers, one of the world’s largest diamond exploration and mining companies.

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The move to acquire the shares was made through Agarwal’s personal investment firm Volcan Investments in London.

Here’s the lowdown on Anglo American: The U.K.-headquartered Group, with operations in South Africa, North and South America, Asia and Europe, has revenue of $23 billion, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) amount to $6.1 billion, and it has a market value of over $20 billion. In addition to diamonds, Anglo is a global player in platinum and base metals and minerals — it mines copper, nickel, niobium and phosphates. It also sells commodities such as iron ore and manganese, metallurgical coal and thermal coal.

When the 13% shares are acquired, Agarwal’s Volcan will be the second-biggest shareholder after the South African Government investment firm Public Investment Corp., which owns 14%. Volcan, said news reports. Volcan intends to finance the investment through mandatory exchangeable bonds. Led by JPMorgan Chase & Co., the bond sale will take place on or around April 11, the closing date.

Agarwal is the founder of Vedanta but he said he doesn’t intend to make a takeover offer for Anglo American, though a merger between the two failed last year. Incidentally, in 2010, Vedanta acquired Anglo American’s portfolio of zinc assets in Namibia, South Africa and Ireland.

Agarwal told the Sunday Times that he “liked” Anglo’s entire balanced portfolio, both in South Africa and elsewhere.

Some years ago, through his entities, Agarwal had also signed an agreement with the South African government for sharing mining technology.

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He said he would be “fully supportive of the board, management and strategy”.

Metal trader turned mining tycoon Agarwal started as a scrap dealer way back in 1975, and his has been a rags to riches story so far but we’ll have to wait and see if his interest in Anglo American is more than just that of a minority investor.

In the ongoing dispute between Japan and India over cheap steel imports, Japan has requested that the World Trade Organization set up a panel to resolve the dispute.

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Early indications are that the move will be opposed by India. Japan’s request comes after New Delhi imposed safeguard duties on several iron and steel products, which India claimed violated global trade rules.

India’s finance ministry imposed definitive safeguard duties on imports of hot-rolled flat products of non-alloy steel in coils to counter a surge in imports from several countries, including Japan. India’s stand has been that such cheap imports “caused injury to domestic steel industries.”

New Delhi would have taken recourse to the safeguard measures on grounds that the import surge in hot-rolled flat products is the result of unforeseen developments. India levied 20% safeguard duties ad valorem minus anti-dumping duties on Japanese imports of hot-rolled flat products between September 2015 and September 2016; 18% between September 2016 and March 2017; 15% between March 2017 and to expire by September 2017; and 10% for a future period in September 2017 and March 2018.

As reported by MetalMiner, despite the excellent trade relations between the two nations, Japan is unhappy with India’s decisions to place a minimum import price and other assorted duties to protect its domestic steel industry. Japan claims this has halved its steel exports to India in the last year.

Japan requested the panel came after India’s failure to provide “convincing reasons” for its safeguard and anti-dumping actions. It’s said the request will come up before the dispute settlement body (DSB) meeting today.

According to a report in the Financial Express, India opposes Japan’s move. Quoting experts, the report said since WTO cases can be settled with rulings that were “prospective,” any adverse judgment would not affect India significantly.

In a parallel development, there are reports coming in that India would use make it compulsory for Indian customers to use domestically produced steel, to stop inroads made by steel products from other countries including China.

India may soon mandate the use of local steel in government infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars, pitching it as a WTO-compliant protectionist measure.

Quoting news agency Reuters, the report said the Indian Government expects to move to boost sales of local companies such as JSW Steel and Tata Steel and eventually attract global steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal and POSCO to invest in the country.

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India is the world’s third-largest steel consumer, but its current level of capacity utilization by domestic steel producers is below 80%.

More and more Indian companies, including steelmakers such as Tata and Essar Steel, are entering the defense manufacturing sector. Essar Steel, for example, recently announced a game plan to develop steel grades for land and naval defense applications.

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Essar Steel made a low key entry into the sector about five years ago, but it’s now turned bullish on defense because of the increased marketability of its products. Essar’s products include an indigenous armor plate for ballistic protection. Some of its products are innovative while others are simple substitutes for imports for India’s native contractors looking to keep more of their supply chains close to home. The latter have been used in the construction of naval destroyers, offshore patrol vessels and floating docks. Other products are used in the construction of Coast Guard vessels, so also the repair of naval ships.

In land defense, Essar Steel’s products are used in battle tanks, the motor casings of missiles, combat vehicles, and artillery guns. Read more

On its journey of self-reliance, India still needs coal.

Highly dependent on imports for this crucial raw material needed for steel and power generation, India has decided to tackle its coking coal deficit by acquiring a foreign coking coal asset, and washing certain grades of coal to make it fuel-ready.

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Power Minister Piyush Goyal told news agency Press Trust of India that one of the ways the government was contemplating reducing its reliance on imports was to wash certain grades of coal to make available 20 million metric tons of coking coal in the next three to four years for the domestic steel industry.

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Chairman and Managing Director of Coal India Ltd. S. Bhattacharya has reiterated that coking coal requirements for the domestic steel industry are still not being met. State-run CIL, the country’s near-monopoly coal producer, is said to be looking at coking coal assets overseas as the country was faced with constraints of commercially viable domestic metallurgical coal reserves, the Minister told Parliament in a statement. CIL is looking to appoint a merchant banker to assist it in acquiring assets overseas. Read more

India produced 8.4 million metric tons of steel in January, registering a growth of 12% against the same period last year, according to data by the World Steel Association. India became one of the top major steel producers in the world, beating China whose production grew by 7.4%.

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The WSA report only props up what the government here has been saying for some time now, that India is making efforts to ramp up domestic steel and to ensure more consumers opt for it rather than other materials such as plastic.

India needs more scrap if it’s to meet its production goals. Source: Alumisource.

At a “Make In Steel” conference in the nation’s capital, New Delhi, Minister of Steel Chaudhary Birender Singh said steel demand grew 3.3% from April to December 2016, and growth was expected to continue in the coming months due to long-term government policies and an increase in infrastructure spending. Clearly, all of this is not mere lip service.

Steel Ministry officials and domestic steelmakers are optimistic that with more infrastructure projects coming up, demand will likely continue to increase.

The WSA predicted steel demand in India will grow at a rate of 5.7% in 2017.

To push demand, the government has used a combination of measures — incentives, imposition of various trade remedial measures such as minimum import prices, anti-dumping and safeguard measures and better quality control.

To increase consumption and production, it also unveiled a draft National Steel Policy 2017, to soon replace the National Steel Policy 2005. The policy aims to increase the domestic steel production capacity to 300 mmt from the current 85 mmt by 2030-31.

Now, as one more step in the process, it has decided to set up of two scrap-based steel plants, one in the west and the other in the north of the country, to boost production capacity. India has relatively few steel scrap-based electric arc furnaces (EAFs) of low capacity compared to similar-sized nations.

Over 40% of scrap available in the four states in northern India and around 67% of the scrap the western state of Gujarat was imported. Steel made out of scrap is expected to be of higher quality and could be used for expanding production of end-use products such as scientific instrument.

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Currently, India imports 6 mmt of scrap annually but will be able to produce 7.5 mmt of scrap by 2025 as supply from end-of-life cars and trucks, a major supply stream, is expected to grow.

Much to the delight of not only its executives and employees but both the global steel sector and even stock markets, the Luxembourg-based steel giant ArcelorMittal has posted its first annual profit in more than five years, registering the biggest jump in earnings in the same period.

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The world’s largest steelmaker by output swung from a $7.9 billion net loss in 2015 to a net profit of $1.8 billion last year. Read more