The operating cost of rolling cold-rolled coil from hot-rolled coil is around $30-50 per metric ton depending on how efficient the steel mill is. Internal (or external) logistics cost to shift the coil between the HRC mill and a CRC mill could be as much as $40/mt but a single-site mill won’t have that cost.
India produced 8.4 million metric tons of steel in January, registering a growth of 12% against the same period last year, according to data by the World Steel Association. India became one of the top major steel producers in the world, beating China whose production grew by 7.4%.
The WSA report only props up what the government here has been saying for some time now, that India is making efforts to ramp up domestic steel and to ensure more consumers opt for it rather than other materials such as plastic.
India needs more scrap if it’s to meet its production goals. Source: Alumisource.
At a “Make In Steel” conference in the nation’s capital, New Delhi, Minister of Steel Chaudhary Birender Singh said steel demand grew 3.3% from April to December 2016, and growth was expected to continue in the coming months due to long-term government policies and an increase in infrastructure spending. Clearly, all of this is not mere lip service.
The WSA predicted steel demand in India will grow at a rate of 5.7% in 2017.
To push demand, the government has used a combination of measures — incentives, imposition of various trade remedial measures such as minimum import prices, anti-dumping and safeguard measures and better quality control.
To increase consumption and production, it also unveiled a draft National Steel Policy 2017, to soon replace the National Steel Policy 2005. The policy aims to increase the domestic steel production capacity to 300 mmt from the current 85 mmt by 2030-31.
Now, as one more step in the process, it has decided to set up of two scrap-based steel plants, one in the west and the other in the north of the country, to boost production capacity. India has relatively few steel scrap-based electric arc furnaces (EAFs) of low capacity compared to similar-sized nations.
Over 40% of scrap available in the four states in northern India and around 67% of the scrap the western state of Gujarat was imported. Steel made out of scrap is expected to be of higher quality and could be used for expanding production of end-use products such as scientific instrument.
Much to the delight of not only its executives and employees but both the global steel sector and even stock markets, the Luxembourg-based steel giant ArcelorMittal has posted its first annual profit in more than five years, registering the biggest jump in earnings in the same period.
The revisions to the earlier regulation will allow miners to only export low-grade ore (defined as metal content of 1.7% or less) as long as they express a commitment to build their own smelters within five years and are able to supply domestic smelters with enough low-grade ore to meet at least 30% of the country’s input capacity.
This distinction between low-grade and high-grade ore (1.7% or more metal content) is important. Lower-grade ore increases the cost base for Chinese nickel pig-iron. In addition, NPI and ferronickel are more energy intensive than the higher grade refined nickel. Therefore, the greater use of lower grade nickel leads to more pollution, an issue that China is currently tackling.
According to a Reuter’s report citing Indonesia’s mining minister, of the 17 mmt of nickel ore produced by Indonesia each year 10 mmt is considered low grade while nickel smelting capacity stands at 16 mmt currently but could grow to 18 mmt this year.
On February second, the Philippines ordered the closure of 21 mines, and seven others could be suspended. The nickel mines recently ordered to shut down account for about 50% of the country’s annual output. Prices rose sharply on the news as the mining shutdowns in the Philippines seem likely to be a to greater driver of price movements than the easing of Indonesia’s export ban.
What This Means For Metal Buyers
If we narrow our view to the supply/demand fundamentals of the nickel industry, the picture looks bullish, but rather complex. However, we need to widen our view to the whole industrial metals spectrum, and that picture looks quite bullish. Industrial metals continue to rise on robust demand and shrinking supply. The bullish sentiment across the metal complex, combined with more nickel mine closures should support prices in the mid-term.
That might be true of the once-high-flying RE market, but to say that about renewables would be a mistake. Sure, many of the magnets and batteries derived from rare earth elements end up in wind power installations and hybrid/electric cars so there’s a direct relation from end use, but the real difference maker in the renewables market is solar.
An estimated 2% of all new jobs created in 2016 in the U.S. came from the solar industry, according to theDepartment of Energy. 10% Of those jobs came from non-warm weather climes such as Colorado, too, so regional limitation is essentially over. The solar industry employs more than three times the amount of people as the coal industry, despite the political power of the latter. Solar installations are expected to rise by 29% this year from last. While wind and other renewable technologies have a long road to adoption, the solar industry is largely “there” when it comes to supplying energy directly to homes and businesses with solar silicon photovoltaic panels affixed to them and even directly to modern energy grids.
Aside from those statistics, too, there are market forces at play that make solar adoption a strong investment opportunity. China’s National Energy Administration has revealed its solar power production more than doubled in 2016, hitting 77.42 gigawatts, making China the world’s largest producer of solar energy. Read more
Our Raw Steels MMI rose 8% in January. Flat products achieved or came close to multiyear highs across the sub-index. In this post we will lay out some of the factors driving this price rally. A rally that we predicted three months ago.
Rising International Steel Spreads
In late January, President Donald Trump took executive action and approved to move forward the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines.This will significantly increase U.S. steel demand from the energy sector.
The new president also issued another executive order that required them, and all pipeline projects, to use only American-made steel. There is no language in Trump’s memo that indicates any waivers for American-made steel would exist for trade-agreement countries. If this policy is adopted, for at least the next four years even by only the executive branch, it is, by far, the most stringent definition of “American-made” we have seen in federal steel procurement.
With the expected increase in U.S. demand for steel and new “Buy American Steel” policies, the spread between U.S. and international prices could widen this year. Spreads bottomed at the end of November and it looks like there have room to rise again. Read more
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in December as investment in private projects rose marginally and public outlays tumbled, which could have an impact on the economic growth estimate for the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that construction spending slipped 0.2% to $1.18 trillion. Construction spending in November increased by an unrevised 0.9%.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending gaining 0.2% in December.
Construction spending still increased 4.5% in 2016, but the rate of increase was less than half of its 10.6% surge in 2015. The government reported last week that GDP increased at a 1.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after accelerating at a 3.5% pace in the July-September period. Read more
Commerce found that dumping occurred by mandatory respondents Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Taigang Daming Metal Product Co., Ltd. Commerce also determined that the mandatory respondents are not eligible for a separate rate and, therefore, part of the China-wide entity.
Commerce calculated a final dumping margin of 63.86% for the non-China-wide respondents eligible for a separate rate. Commerce assigned a dumping margin of 76.64% based on adverse facts available for all other producers/exporters in China that are part of the China-wide entity due to their failure to respond to Commerce’s requests for information. Read more
Based on preliminary Census Bureau data, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported that the U.S. imported a total of 2,686,000 net tons of steel in December 2016, including 2,146,000 net tons nt of finished steel (down 4.3% and up 0.6%, respectively, vs. November final data).
For the full year of 2016, total and finished steel imports are 33,009,000 and 26,327,000 nt, down 14.9% and 16.4%, respectively, compared to full year 2015. Finished steel import market share was an estimated 26% in December and is estimated at 26% for full year 2016.
Key finished steel products with significant import increases in December compared to November include oil country goods (up 55%), line pipe (up 38%), sheets and strip all other metallic-coated products (up 27%), tin plate (up 24%), sheets and strip hot-dipped galvanized (up 14%) and hot-rolled bars (up 11%). Tin plate (up 15%) had a significant increase in 2016 vs. the prior year.
Trump Signs Order Mandating Regulations Be Cut
President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday morning requiring that for every new federal regulation implemented, two must be rescinded.
“This will be the biggest such act that our country has ever seen,” Trump declared moments before signing it in the Oval Office. “There will be regulation, there will be control, but it will be a normalized control where you can open your business and expand your business very easily. And that’s what our country has been all about.”
Japan, the world’s second-largest producer of steel, has threatened to take India to the World Trade Organization over import restrictions asserted by India. If incoming reports are true, Japan may soon be joined by Taiwan and even Russia.
Despite the excellent trade relations the two nations enjoy, Japan is unhappy with India’s decisions to place a minimum import price and other assorted duties to protect its domestic steel industry. Japan claims this has halved its steel exports to India in the last year.
Working quietly on the sidelines, Indian government officials having been trying to iron out differences with their Japanese counterparts and settle the dispute in consultation but, so far, the sides have not had much luck. According to a news report, India’s Director-General of Safeguards and the Ministry of Steel were assessing points raised by Japan against the calculation of safeguard duties so that they could counter Japan and defend the duties before the WTO. India, obviously, does not want Japan — for that matter any other nation — to escalate this matter into a full-fledged dispute at the WTO.
But why is Japan reacting now, especially since some of the restrictions have been in place in India for almost two years? Analysts say that with U.S. President Donald Trump raising the cry of “America, First,” Japan is now concerned that it could lose a large chunk of its steel export market, and thus, is making an open stand for what it considers free and fair international trade. India is just the proxy country used to fight a larger war against MIPs and other border taxes.
A Japanese industry ministry official, explaining a Dec. 20 request for WTO dispute consultations with India over steel safeguard duties and the MIP for iron and steel products, said it needed to stop unfair trade actions from “spreading.”
India imposed duties of up to 20% on some hot-rolled flat steel products in September 2015, and set a floor price in February 2016 for steel product imports. India’s anti-dumping duty amounts to $474-557 a metric ton on hot-rolled flat products of alloy and non-alloy steel imported from China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia in August. These nations account for almost 90% of India’s steel imports.