Numerous factors weigh heavily on the base metals and commodity complex: the Chinese copper scrap ban, the Section 232 proclamation on aluminum and steel combined with country-specific exemptions set to expire on May 1, the Section 301 investigation, and multiple strikes at copper and nickel mines to boot. After the turmoil of the first few […]
Tag: aluminum price
As E.U. Strikes Back at Steel Tariffs, Here’s Why Section 232 National Security Argument Matters
As my colleague Sydney Lazarus reported yesterday, even though the European Union has a temporary exemption from the U.S.’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, it is demanding compensation at the World Trade Organization as shown in a filing by that trade body two days ago, according to Reuters. The EU is arguing that […]
Aluminum Recovers With More Than 13% Price Jump in a Week
At the end of week before last, aluminum prices seemed to struggle; some thought the metal might have shifted to bearish country. However, after that LME aluminum prices jumped by more than 13% in a week. LME aluminum prices retraced to August resistance levels ($1,972/mt), and then increased sharply again. Need buying strategies for steel? […]
ITC Continues Investigations of Common Alloy Aluminum Sheet from China
Last week, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to continue the AD and CVD investigations into common alloy aluminum sheet from China — a decision met with favor by some and concern by others within domestic industry. Buying Aluminum in 2018? Download MetalMiner’s free annual price outlook Unlike most such cases, the Department of Commerce […]
Aluminum MMI: Prices Rise and Trading Volumes Have Strong Showing
After last month’s drop, the Aluminum MMI (Monthly Metals Index) index increased by three points. The current Aluminum MMI index reads 98 points, 3.2% higher than the December reading. 
Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up
In December, MetalMiner anticipated a rise in aluminum prices … and that is exactly what happened.
Aluminum prices increased by 10.6% in December, reaching a more than two-year high.
[caption id="attachment_89629" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Trading volumes appear strong and accompany the current uptrend. Moreover, aluminum’s latest peak has climbed over previous ones, signaling strength in its latest market rally. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger CRB index driven by higher oil prices, may continue to support aluminum prices.
Moreover, the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation should see a report released mid-January, which will also impact prices. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a new self-initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation on imports of Chinese common aluminum alloy sheet at the end of November. The U.S. has launched several anti-dumping campaigns for aluminum products this past year.
Crude Oil
As oil prices serve as a critical part of the CRB index, together with other base metals, buying organizations need to monitor oil price trends.
Moreover, there are some base metals, such as aluminum, that are strongly influenced by oil prices.
[caption id="attachment_89630" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Crude Oil prices. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading Economics[/caption]
Oil prices have increased again this month. Current oil prices remain above our bullish level signal, meaning that we could expect some more upward movement for oil.
Similarly, increasing oil prices will continue to provide support to base metals prices.
Aluminum Scrap
Chinese aluminum scrap prices increased sharply this month and appear in a long-term uptrend since 2016.
The latest rally in both LME and SHFE aluminum prices also results in a jump in aluminum scrap prices. Chinese scrap prices increased by 4.9% this month.
[caption id="attachment_89631" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Aluminum prices jumped sharply again this month. After sharp price increases, base metal prices sometimes pull back to digest the previous gains. Aluminum prices may lack some price momentum this month, although that continues signaling bullishness for the light metal.
Therefore, adapting the “right” buying strategy becomes crucial to reduce risks by knowing when to buy.
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Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends
