aluminum price

The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held relatively flat this month, with a one-point increase to 83, as the majority of prices in the index showed mild increases.

LME aluminum prices generally moved sideways during November and were unable to generate strong upward price momentum due to slower recent economic growth rates and uncertainty over demand in early 2020.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of London Metal Exchange (LME) and FastMarkets

While prices have not gained as much value recently — even compared to early November highs — prices have not dropped as low either.

During the past month, prices dropped back below the $1,800/mt level after trading above that level during the first week or so of November, but still found support firmly above the $1,700/mt level.

Overall macroeconomic conditions continued to restrain price increases.

SHFE aluminum prices continue sideways

SHFE aluminum prices continued to move firmly sideways during the past month.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets

Since March, prices traded in a firm band between CNY 13,500/mt and CNY 14,500/mt.

The sideways trend looks set to continue. However, prices recently hit some progressive lows, (although the drops look mild):

Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets

Aluminum production in China will most likely continue to grow much faster than demand, according to a webinar by analysts at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).

In 2020, China’s output of primary aluminum looks set to increase by 2.5% to 36.44 million metric tons (after contracting by 1.51% this year).

This year, capacity totaled around 40.69 million tons, with actual production of around 35.1 million tons on an annualized basis.

Aluminum consumption in China will increase by 0.3% next year to 36.19 million metric tons, after declining by 1.48% this year.

Increased use of aluminum in autos will not be enough to absorb China’s rising production

According to a report prepared for the International Aluminum Institute on long-term automotive use in China earlier this year, aluminum demand for use specifically within the sector in China will increase from an estimated 3.8 million tons in 2018 to 10.7 million tons by 2030, based on a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%.

Let’s put that in perspective.

This past October, Chinese production totaled just around 3.0 million tons.

High production levels likely to constrain price increases into early 2020

Surplus production could continue to weigh on prices next year, resulting in a price drop below $1,700/mt, particularly early in the year.

Once prices drop further, the rate of smelter closures will likely increase, thus relieving downward price pressure.

However, at this time prices continue to trade near break-even levels, likely delaying announcements of production closures into Q1 2020.

What this means for industrial buyers

Aluminum price momentum remained stalled overall this month, with most index prices holding sideways or making only mild gains.

A return of price momentum cannot be ruled out for Q1 2020, especially if both the automotive and manufacturing sectors see a strong global recovery.

Buying organizations interested in tracking industrial metals prices with ease, including embedded forecasting, will want to request a demo of the MetalMiner Insights platform.

Buying organizations seeking more insight into longer-term aluminum price trends may want to read MetalMiner’s Annual Metal Buying Outlook.

Free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook

Actual metal prices and trends

This month, China aluminum scrap prices increased once again, rising by 2.4% to $1,849/mt. Chinese aluminum primary cash prices also increased again, by 1% to $1,994/mt. Chinese aluminum billet and bar prices saw increases of around 0.4%, to $2,049/mt and $2,144/mt, respectively.

Korean prices dropped back this month by around 3%. Korean commercial 1050 sheet came in at $2.95/kilogram. The 5052 coil premium over 1050 was $3.12/kilogram and the 3003 coil premium over 1050 was $2.92/kilogram.

The LME primary three-month price increased by 0.8% to $1,761/mt.

European commercial 1050 sheet and 5083 plate both increased mildly again this month, by 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively, to $2,482/mt and $2,862/mt.

India’s primary cash price increased by 0.5% to $1.87 per kilogram. 

Global aluminum production in October totaled 5.39 million tons, according to a recent report by the International Aluminum Institute.

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Global production through the first 10 months of the year reached 53.04 million tons, down 0.9% from the 53.51 million tons produced during the first 10 months of 2018.

Of that total, China produced 3.01 million tons, which marked a decline from the 3.13 million tons produced in October 2018. However, China’s October production jumped compared with September’s 2.92 million tons.

Elsewhere, production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries totaled 494,000 tons in October, up from the 478,000 tons in September and the 450,000 tons produced in October 2018.

North American production totaled 316,000 tons, up 1.9% from the 310,000 produced in September but down from 323,000 tons in October 2018.

Western European production totaled 286,000 tons in October, up from 276,000 tons the previous month and down from 321,000 tons in October 2018.

Production in east and central Europe totaled 356,000 tons in October, up form 344,000 tons in September and 343,000 tons in October 2018.

MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns weighed in on aluminum demand and prices last month.

“China’s gross domestic product growth slowed again to 6.0% year over year in the third quarter, its weakest pace in almost three decades, Aluminium Insider reports,” Burns wrote. “Citing a Reuters poll, the report notes industrial activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, quoting a Reuters poll, suggesting hardly any relief from slowing global demand and the trade war.

“The latest economic data from the E.U. and the U.S. also indicate slowing growth, with Germany flirting with a recession in the manufacturing sector. Although the aluminum market was estimated to be in deficit last year and this, a Reuters poll suggests it is likely to flip into a surplus of 304,000 metric tons next year — almost a 1 million ton turnaround from the 658,500-ton estimate for this year.”

Despite slowing growth and lagging demand around the world, aluminum prices had previously shown signs of upward momentum, surging past the $1,800/mt threshold in the first half of November.

However, since hitting $1,820/mt as of Nov. 8, the LME three-month aluminum price has lost some steam. The LME three-month aluminum price dropped to $1,738/mt in the run-up to Thanksgiving, according to MetalMiner IndX data.

Alumina production

Meanwhile, the International Aluminum Institute also released alumina production figures Nov. 26.

China’s estimated production of alumina — a key aluminum making material — totaled 6.08 million tons in October, up from 5.88 million tons in September but down from the 6.16 million tons produced in October 2018.

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Global alumina production totaled 110.3 million tons through the first 10 months of 2019, up 1.9% from 108.2 million tons produced during the equivalent period in 2018.

The normally pragmatic Netherlands has been strangely agitated recently, as both the construction and agricultural industry have protested on the streets of the capital, the Hague, against the government’s measures for combating nitrogen and PFAS-based pollution.

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In itself this would barely be newsworthy for MetalMiner if it weren’t for the impact it is having on an already subdued metals industry.

Even before the widespread disruption to the Dutch construction industry, demand for steel and aluminum was suffering from depressed German industrial consumption, largely due to a downturn in the automotive market.

But in the Netherlands, the government is struggling to resolve an issue with nitrogen emissions permitting, which Reuters reports are four times the E.U. average per capita in the small and densely populated Netherlands.

Although 61% of emissions are coming from agriculture, a sizable portion also comes from the construction industry – a big consumer of aluminum and steel products.

The impact is particularly damaging, as the country has been enjoying a boom in infrastructure and housing investment of late.

As a result of a fiasco over how permits are assessed, a review is underway and, in the meantime, new permits have been withheld, leading to delays and project uncertainty.

Aluminum extruders estimate the European market is down at least 20% from last year as a result. With steel prices also waning, participants across the supply chain are reducing inventories, adding further to the fall in demand being experienced by producers.

Lead times have come in and order books are weak, as many in the steel and aluminum supply chains find themselves overstocked relative to ongoing demand. The double whammy of weak automotive demand now being exacerbated by a fall in construction activity has caught many by surprise.

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The government in the Netherlands will no doubt resolve its permitting issues. However, a return to last year’s robust level of activity is unlikely to bounce back quickly and producers remain pessimistic about demand next year.

In the meantime, prices are likely to remain under pressure and lead times will remain short into 2020.

The aluminum price is a contrary thing, isn’t it?

For months, aluminum prices have been falling on the basis that demand is waning due to slowing global growth (particularly in top consumer China).

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China’s gross domestic product growth slowed again to 6.0% year over year in the third quarter, its weakest pace in almost three decades, Aluminium Insider reports. Citing a Reuters poll, the report notes industrial activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, quoting a Reuters poll, suggesting hardly any relief from slowing global demand and the trade war.

The latest economic data from the E.U. and the U.S. also indicate slowing growth, with Germany flirting with a recession in the manufacturing sector. Although the aluminum market was estimated to be in deficit last year and this, a Reuters poll suggests it is likely to flip into a surplus of 304,000 metric tons next year — almost a 1 million ton turnaround from the 658,500-ton estimate for this year.

The article went on to say the consensus among major producers is that global aluminum demand growth will be flat (around zero) this year. Norsk Hydro predicts demand outside China will fall by 1-2%, meaning global demand is likely to fall by 0.5%. Alcoa took a similarly pessimistic view.

So why has the aluminum price currently taken a run-up to nearly $1,800 per metric ton on the back of, Reuters reports, supply fears?

It would seem investors are somewhat jittery and struggling to read the fundamentals.

Talk of Rio Tinto having to reduce output (or worse, shut its New Zealand smelter due to high power costs) and China’s second-place Chalco closing 200,000 tons of capacity in Shandong for the same reason seem to have stoked fears a number of smelter cutbacks could lead to a shortage.

Investors also view falling LME and SHFE inventories as a sign of a tightening market.

Aluminum stocks in SHFE warehouses dropped to their lowest level since March 2017 at 278,736 tons, while LME aluminum inventories dipped to their lowest since Sept. 30 at 956,200 tons, according to Reuters.

On the flip side, top consumer China is importing more and more remelt alloy ingots as part of its raw material product mix, which is finding its way through to increased exports of low-priced semi-finished products. China exported 4.37 million tons of mostly semi-aluminum products in the first nine months of the year – 2.8% more than in the previous year.

Primary production may be marginally down, but China is still supplying the world with semis, depressing activity at domestic extrusions and rolling mills in Japan, Europe and, by extension, the U.S.

Although the U.S. doesn’t import Chinese extrusions or billet, material supplied from elsewhere that has been displaced by Chinese metal does find its way in. Extruders are suffering, as illustrated by the low billet premiums prevailing in the U.S. right now.

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While some polls have suggested aluminum prices could be back over $1,800 per ton next year if current conditions prevail, that looks unlikely.

More than just sentiment is being depressed by the trade war. With little chance of a resolution this side of the presidential election, manufacturing is unlikely to recover strongly enough to materially impact the supply-demand balance anytime soon.

photonewman/Adobe Stock

The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) remained flat this month at 82, with the majority of prices in the index increasing mildly, offset by a few declining values.

The current index value remains near a three-year low.

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LME aluminum prices generally moved sideways in October but demonstrated strength late in the month, just as prices look set to drop through yet another support level of $1,700/mt. Prices hit as low as $1,713/mt during the month.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of London Metal Exchange (LME) and FastMarkets

That movement appears halted for now, due to supply disruptions and future supply concerns.

SHFE Aluminum Prices Failed to Gain Steam

SHFE aluminum prices still appear constrained by a sideways pattern capped at around CNY 14,500/mt price band, with upward momentum looking weaker as the year has progressed.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets

Given recent positive PMI readings and improvements in China’s large-cap FXI, for instance, we should see aluminum prices react — unless excess supply exists in the market, stopping increased price momentum and/or demand remains weak in aluminum-intensive areas.

According to Q3 reporting for the Aluminum Corp of China Ltd, or Chalco, as reported by Reuters, aluminum sales dropped by 13.8% for the quarter, compared to Q3 2018, with sales totaling 940,000 tons. Production dropped 10.4% during the same period (July-September) to 950,000 tons.

The company reported significant raw material, energy and operating cost increases of late, ranging from 17% to 21%, during the quarter.

Chalco reported an average sales price of CNY 13,924/mt for Q3 2019, down by 4.2% compared to Q3 2018, with profits down by 47.7% for the first nine months of 2019.

Recently, prices dropped below CNY 14,000/mt — typically a critical break-even point for producers in China — to CNY 13,800/mt.

Supply Concerns Support LME Aluminum Prices

During the most recent round of corporate financial reporting, a couple of high-profile producers noted higher energy costs hurt profitability and indicated the need to upgrade production methods to more energy-efficient processes. The aforementioned is especially true given the energy-intensive nature of aluminum production, which will necessitate major investment costs.

Rio Tinto commented that closure of its aluminum smelter in New Zealand could be possible due to high energy costs hurting profitability.

Additionally, the price increase could have occurred as a result of speculative activity in that it coincided with a recent uptick in press reports covering aluminum as the green solution in the beverage can industry.

Coca-Cola’s Dasani brand of water will move to aluminum cans from plastic, joining PepsiCo’s move for its Aquafina brand. Ball, the jar company, recently created an aluminum cup to compete with plastic (now in test markets). The company began construction of its first dedicated aluminum cup manufacturing facility, with production expected to ramp up in Q4 2020.

Additionally, total LME warehouse stocks trended down to historical lows earlier this year and remained there, at around 1 million tons. SHFE stocks declined more dramatically this year, now down to under 300,000 tons from around 700,000 tons at the start of the year.

New LME Warehouse Rules Target Improved Data Tracking

The LME announced Nov. 1 it will proceed with a proposed package of measures aimed at the optimization of its warehouse network.

The new rules will require network warehouses to report stocks, even when stored outside of an LME location when that metal will be brought in at a later date.

Also, queue-based rent capping will increase to 80 days — from 50 days at present — over the course of nine months.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Aluminum prices found some momentum late in October, but what comes next remains unclear.

Buying organizations interested in tracking industrial metals prices with embedded forecasting should request a demo of the MetalMiner Insights platform.

Buying organizations seeking more insight into longer-term aluminum price trends may want to read MetalMiner’s Annual Metal Buying Outlook.

Free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook

Actual Metal Prices and Trends

This month, China aluminum scrap prices increased by 2.4% to $1,805/mt, while Chinese aluminum primary cash prices increased by 1% to $1,975/mt.

Meanwhile, Chinese aluminum billet and bar prices declined by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, to $2,041/mt and $2,136/mt.

Korean prices showed strength across the board this month.

Korean commercial 1050 sheet increased by 2.4% to $3.04/kilogram, 5052 coil premium over 1050 increased by 2.2% to 3.21/kilogram, and 3003 coil premium over 1050 increased by 2% to $3.08/kilogram.

The LME primary three-month price increased by 1.6% over the course of the month to $1,747/mt after a couple of months of decline.

European commercial 1050 sheet and 5083 plate both increased again this month, rising by 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively to $2,475/mt and $2,837/mt.

India’s primary cash price dropped by 5.1% to $1.86/kg.

Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery. Source: Norsk Hydro

Norwegian aluminum, alumina and bauxite producer Norsk Hydro scored a key victory in September when Brazil’s federal court lifted the final embargo on the firm’s Alunorte alumina refinery, allowing it to ramp back up to 100% capacity.

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The refinery had been subject to embargoes, particularly with respect to its DRS2 bauxite residue deposit area, after flooding in the region in early 2018. Alunorte declared force majeure in March 2019 after the Brazilian authorities ordered a 50% production cut.

With the embargoes in the rear-view mirror, the firm is now looking to ramp up production. The Alunorte refinery, boasting a capacity of 6.3 million metric tons per year, reached 83% capacity capacity utilization during the third quarter.

Hydro reported third-quarter underlying EBIT of NOK 1,366 million (U.S. $148.5 million), marking a 49% year-over-year decline, citing “a decrease in realized aluminium and alumina prices.”

However, the declines were partially offset by lower raw material costs and higher production in Brazil, the company said. Compared with the second quarter, underlying EBIT increased 56%.

“It is encouraging to see costs coming down in our upstream business, combined with forceful restructuring and optimization measures downstream. Amid challenging markets, it is more important than ever to focus our efforts on what we control ourselves. I am therefore pleased to report progress on our new and ambitious improvement programs, which is an important enabler for our profitability and sustainability agenda,” President and CEO Hilde Merete Aasheim said in a release.

By segment, underlying EBIT for Hydro’s bauxite and alumina segment fell 30% on a year-over-year basis, but increased 16% compared with the second quarter of 2019.

Underlying EBIT in extruded solutions increased 12% on a year-over-year basis, but declined 28% compared with Q2 2019. The extruded solution segment was hit hardest by a cyber attack that struck Hydro’s operations in March.

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“The cyberattack on Hydro on March 19, affected the entire global organization, with Extruded Solutions having suffered the most significant operational challenges and financial losses,” the company said. “The financial impact of the cyberattack is estimated to around NOK 550-650 million in the first half year with limited financial effects for the third quarter.”

According to the International Aluminum Institute, global aluminum production totaled 5.16 million tons in September, down from 5.33 million tons in August and 5.30 million tons in September 2018.

Despite the decline in production, prices have not received a boost — in fact, the LME aluminum price per pound is hovering at around $0.78 per pound.

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Top producer China saw its production levels dip again last month.

Chinese aluminum production totaled an estimated 2.88 million tons, down from 2.97 million tons in August and 3.01 million tons in September 2018.

North American aluminum production reached 310,000 tons, down from 321,000 tons in August and flat compared with September 2018 production.

Asian production ex-China reached 363,000 tons, down from 374,000 tons in August and 364,000 tons in September 2018.

GCC production totaled 456,000 tons, down from 469,000 tons in August but up from the 437,000 tons produced in September 2018.

Production in eastern and central Europe totaled 344,000, down from 356,000 tons, but up from the 332,000 tons produced in September 2018.

Western European production totaled 276,000 tons, down from 286,000 tons in August and the 312,000 tons produced in September 2018.

In terms of prices, LME three-month aluminum is down 2.86% over the last month, down to $1,731/mt.

“LME aluminum prices weakened in September, despite looking stronger early on in the month,” MetalMiner’s Belinda Fuller explained earlier this month. “Less robust manufacturing and economic indicators hurt some industrial metal prices this month, including aluminum. The stronger U.S. dollar also resulted in weaker prices.

“LME prices look close to possibly dropping below yet another critical price level, $1,700/mt, after clearly breaking the $1,800/mt support level since last month.”

Chinese aluminum prices have also been on the decline of late. SHFE primary cash aluminum recently fell to 13,960 CNY per ton, down from 14,280 CNY per ton a month ago, according to MetalMiner IndX data.

LME prices have picked up slightly in recent days, but not substantially. With Chinese production now posting monthly declines for two straight months, it remains to be seen if that supply-side activity will have a supportive impact on prices.

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So far, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Of course, the demand picture must also be figured into any industrial metal’s forecast. The IMF recently downgraded its 2019 global growth forecast to 3%, its lowest level since the financial crisis — an ill omen for demand of a wide range of goods, including industrial metals.

Automotive demand for aluminum — among other metals — is a large source of the metal’s overall demand. As the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released this month notes, a slowdown in No. 1 automotive market China has weighed on aluminum prices.

Referring to the period between February and August of this year, the IMF noted, “The price of aluminum fell by 6.6 percent because of overcapacity in China and weakening demand from the vehicle market there.”

The October 2019 Monthly Metals Index (MMI) report is in the books.

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This month, just one of the Monthly Metals Indexes (MMIs) increased, while six declined and three held flat.

Some highlights from this month’s MMIs:

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The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) dropped by one point again this month, this month down to an MMI reading of 82.

However, rather than universal price weakness like last month, price declines in China pulled the index down (along with a milder drop in LME prices).

All other prices in the index increased, although some of the gains were relatively small (i.e., under 1%).

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LME aluminum prices weakened in September, despite looking stronger early on in the month. Less robust manufacturing and economic indicators hurt some industrial metal prices this month, including aluminum. The stronger U.S. dollar also resulted in weaker prices.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of London Metal Exchange (LME) and FastMarkets

LME prices look close to possibly dropping below yet another critical price level, $1,700/mt, after clearly breaking the $1,800/mt support level since last month.

SHFE Aluminum Prices Lost Ground in September

Over the course of 2019, SHFE aluminum prices continued to show sluggish upward momentum, constrained by the CNY 14,500/mt price level.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets

However, during the past one month, SHFE prices dropped:

Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets

The price drop looks somewhat mild, as it looks to be within the range of normal price fluctuations for the metal over the past year.

Around mid-month, news of slowing economic growth in China led to a stalling of price momentum for some key industrial metals, including aluminum.

However, not all the recent news from China indicated manufacturing is slowing.

The Caixin Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) clearly jumped into the expansionary zone, as reported in this month’s MetalMiner Monthly Outlook.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) competing PMI also edged up to 49.8 (compared with August’s reading of 49.5). In particular, the production subindex jumped to 52.3, while the new orders index increased to 50.5 — both marking expansionary readings.

Recently, the Chinese government implemented fiscal measures expected to help maintain higher growth rates through improved banking sector liquidity. Expected beneficiaries of the measures include the construction industry and small businesses.

Demand in the automotive sector remains weak, adding to aluminum price weakness (as pointed out by MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns in a recent article). The government implemented measures to help improve traditional car sales; so far, the data do not show an uptick in sales as a result of these measures, which rely on implementation at the local government level.

Strong U.S. Dollar Suppresses LME Prices

One effect of slowed growth in other major countries pertains to the continued upward trend in the dollar’s value, which grew stronger vis-a-vis other major currencies.

This compounds with China’s decision to devalue the yuan in early August, which translates into yet lower prices.

Key raw material input costs have also dropped.

Therefore, producers — particularly producers in China — have a greater buffer against lower prices, allowing them to lower prices while maintaining margins. As such, those producers can then continue to produce, even at lower prices.

Additionally, when Chinese domestic prices stay the same or decline in dollar-denominated prices, increased sales volume may be the result. Chinese producers can therefore benefit without effectively offering any actual price discount. In the worst-case scenario — the case of rising prices — the alteration in the exchange rate slows the rate of increases in dollar-denominated prices.

Vietnam Announces Tariffs on Aluminum Imports from 16 Chinese Companies

Based on the findings of an investigation launched in January, Vietnam announced it would impose anti-dumping duties on some aluminum products from 16 Chinese companies.

The tax will range from 2.49% to 35.58% for five years, starting from Sept. 28, 2019.

U.S. Aluminum Premiums

The U.S. Midwest Premium increased marginally, placing it firmly at $0.18/pound, indicating supply tightness continues in spite of weaker demand.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Aluminum price momentum stalled in September.

Recent Chinese currency devaluation and a stronger dollar means lower prices — for now.

Industrial buying organizations need to keep an eye on the bigger picture; should demand firm up in the fall, price momentum may still turn around.

Buying organizations interested in tracking industrial metals prices with embedded forecasting should request a demo of MetalMiner Insights platform.

Buying organizations seeking more insight into longer-term aluminum price trends should read MetalMiner’s Annual Metal Buying Outlook.

Free Partial Sample Report: 2020 MetalMiner Annual Metals Outlook

Actual Metal Prices and Trends

Chinese prices in the index moved lower overall this month.

Chinese aluminum primary cash and scrap prices decreased by 2.9% and 2.8% respectively, to $1,955/mt and $1,762/mt.

Chinese aluminum billet and bar prices posted 0.2% declines, falling to $2,056/mt and $2,150/mt, respectively.

The LME primary three-month price dropped by 1.5% this month to $1,720/mt, adding to the 3.4% drop the month prior.

European commercial 1050 sheet and 5083 plate both increased by 2.6% to $2,456/mt and $2,799/mt, respectively.

India’s primary cash price increased 1% to $1.96 per kilogram.

Korean commercial 1050 sheet, 5052 coil premium over 1050, and 3003 coil premium over 1050 all increased by less than 1% – reversing last month’s mild decrease of less than 1% — down to $2.97, $3.14 and $3.02 per kilogram, respectively.

Steven Husk/Adobe Stock

The Automotive Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held flat this month for an MMI reading of 85.

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U.S. Auto Sales

The Big 3, which now all report sales on a quarterly basis, released sales figures for the third quarter.

General Motors reported third-quarter deliveries of 738,638 vehicles, marking a 6.3% year-over-year increase.

Negotiations between GM and the United Automobile Workers (UAW) union entered their third week this week, UAW rejected the latest GM offer on Sept. 30, according to a UAW statement.

“This proposal that the Company provided to us on day 15 of the strike did not satisfy your contract demands or needs,” UAW Vice President Terry Dittes said in a release. “There were many areas that came up short like health care, wages, temporary employees, skilled trades and job security to name a few.  Additionally, concessionary proposals still remain in the company’s proposals as of late last night.”

Earlier this month, MetalMiner Executive Editor Lisa Reisman weighed in on a lingering strike’s potential impact on steel prices.

“Given that the U.S. market consumes about 110 million tons annually, and GM’s share represents about 8% of domestic steel production, it would take a 39-day strike to lower demand by 1 million tons, or 1%,” she wrote.

As of Thursday, Oct. 3, the strike has reached its 18th day.

Ford reported third-quarter vehicle sales of 580,251, down 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. However, Ford truck sales increased 8% year over year.

Fiat Chrysler’s third-quarter sales were flat compared with Q3 2018.

Honda sales were down 14.1% in September compared with September 2018 sales.

Toyota reported sales fell 16.5% in September on a volume basis and by 9.2% on a daily selling rate basis. Nissan’s September sales fell 17.6% on a year over year basis.

According to a jointly released forecast by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive, accounting for fewer selling days, September vehicle sales were down 7.8% compared with September 2018.

Ford, Mahindra Team Up

Ford recently announced a joint venture partnership with India’s Mahindra, which will aim to “develop, market and distribute Ford brand vehicles in India and Ford brand and Mahindra brand vehicles in high-growth emerging markets around the world.”

Ford will own a 49% controlling stake in the joint venture, with Mahindra owning a 51% stake.

“Ford and Mahindra have a long history of working together, and we are proud to partner with them to grow the Ford brand in India,” Ford’s Executive Chairman Bill Ford said in a release. “We remain deeply committed to our employees, dealers and suppliers, and this new era of collaboration will allow us to deliver more vehicles to consumers in this important market.”

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Actual Metal Prices and Trends

The U.S. HDG price fell 3.8% month over month to $804/st as of Oct. 1.

LME three-month copper was essentially flat, moving to $5,640/mt. U.S. shredded scrap steel fell 13.6% to $254/st.

The Korean aluminum 5052 coil premium rose 0.6% to $3.14 per kilogram.