Tag: Indonesia export ban

Is Nickel Setting Up For a New Rally?

Most base metals fell this month, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Nickel prices traded almost flat. Why does this matter? This means that despite downward pressure in the metal complex this month, investors are not giving much ground on nickel.

MetalMiner Price Benchmarking: Current and Historical Prices for the Metals You Buy

This price action seems very constructive and chances are that nickel is setting up for a new rally after this consolidation. On top of that, nickel’s fundamentals also favor a move higher:

[caption id="attachment_81570" align="aligncenter" width="400"]Nickel prices holding well, setting up for an upside move. Source: MetalMiner analysis of fast markets.com data Nickel prices are holding well, setting up for an upside move. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets.com data.[/caption]

First, Indonesia recently announced that the country will “almost definitely” keep in place a ban on nickel ore and bauxite exports. Just a few days ago, nickel investors were concerned that Indonesia was considering lifting the ban. Now that those fears have waned, investors might be more inclined to chase prices higher.

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Second, The Philippines announced that it will prolong the ban on new mines, reviewing all environmental permits previously granted to nickel producers. The announcement dashes industry hopes that some restrictions may be lifted following the audit that finished in August. The news come after a quarter of the country’s miners have been closed with another 20 of them under the risk of suspension.

What This Means For Nickel Buyers

Nickel prices might be setting up for a move higher. At least both the price action and fundamentals seem to agree with that. Buyers should have a good plan in order to protect margins in case of a price increase.

Tin Price Forecast, August 2015: One Month Removed from a Performance for the Ages

[caption id="attachment_72399" align="alignleft" width="300"]Tin cans Want a medium- and short-term buying strategy for tin? Check out our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report![/caption]

Back in June, we reported that tin had been in a free fall for most of the past year. In 2014, the metal declined 15% and as of June 2015, prices were down 24% year-over-year. Simply put, it did not look good for tin producers heading into July.

But then July happened. Tin outperformed all metals last month, and even nearly breached our short-term resistance level of $16,500/mt. with one day even trading as high as $16,600/mt.

Want to know what August has in store for tin?

Get your 30-day forecasts for aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, zinc, tin and steel (HRC, CRC, HDG, plate) from our new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report

Indonesia Export Quantities: the Story for Tin in August

The world’s top exporter of tin, Indonesia, ramped up its export activity in July, but local smelters are preparing for a sharp tail-off in August amid reports that a new export rule is about to go in effect.

“Many of the smelters don’t have the new license yet,” Jabin Sufianto, president of the Indonesian Association of Tin Exporters (AETI) told Reuters. “There have been delays in the new regulation from the government.”

These new export rules and licensing requirements are expected to underpin prices of the metal.

“If you can’t export the tin ingot, your cash flow will be affected,” Sufianto added. “So I believe the production will be lower, and as an impact, the price will increase. But I don’t think it’s going to be a huge problem because the government will help us getting our licenses.”

The reason for these new regulations stem from the Indonesian government expressing concern over illegal activity related to tin mining and smuggling and the subsequent negative effect on the environment it can have.

The London Metal Exchange responded in June, with tin prices up nearly 10 percent. However, according to Reuters, stagnant demand from the electronics sector and neighboring country Myanmar picking up the slack, should offset any significant price gain for tin.

So What Should My Industrial Buying Strategy Be?

This tin price forecast was excerpted from our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

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Should Nickel, Stainless Buying Companies Panic Over Indonesia Exports Ban?

Should Nickel, Stainless Buying Companies Panic Over Indonesia Exports Ban?

MetalMiner Editor Lisa Reisman recently took a higher reading of the “Risk-O-Meter” for the likelihood of the Indonesian raw material export ban. Here, MetalMiner’s lead forecasting analyst Raul de Frutos examines […]

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