Britain has been in paroxysms of concern over the fate of its car industry.

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In January, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), announced it will lay off 4,500 employees as part of a plan to save £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) in the face of a collapse in the sale of diesel cars (some 90% of JLR’s cars were diesel last year).

Nissan, the largest of the Japanese car builders in the U.K., announced it would not be building its new X Trail model in the U.K., contrary to earlier promises made to secure millions in public support. Honda announced it was planning to cut 800 jobs at its Swindon plant this year.

Then, according to the Economist last week, Ford unveiled the European end of a global effort to cut costs by $14 billion a year, which may see 24,000 of its 200,000 workers laid off.

Such is the political fever in the U.K. at present, and the fault is being laid firmly at the door of Britain’s departure from the European Union (that is, Brexit).

In reality, while the uncertainty created by the U.K. government’s bungled exit negotiations have not helped, all these decisions reflect a wider downturn in the global automotive market.

Back to the Economist piece, citing automakers blaming falling sales and the need to merge operations or share platforms – such as Volkswagen and Ford’s recent tie-up for vans and pick-ups – to counter the threat from automotive electrification.

Yet many of the factors cited, while certainly constituting threats in the medium term – the move to car sharing or ride-hailing services could certainly decimate sales of personally owned cars in the medium term — are still in their infancy in terms of overall numbers and haven’t begun to impact total car demand yet.

Nor has the electric vehicle (EV), said by some to be the death knell of traditional manufacturers of internal combustion powered vehicles, as the likes of Google, Tesla and even rising Chinese EV manufacturers take over.

Source: The Economist

The drop in sales both in Europe, the U.S. and, most importantly, China is real enough — but the reason is much simpler than a change in consumers’ buying preferences.

GDP is slowing, most markedly where the fastest decline in sales has been: China. Consumers are worried by trade wars, slowing growth, fears over the stock market and even talk of recessions.

Rising sales come on the back of confidence and rising living standards; when consumers fear for their economic future, they stop or postpone buying.

That is what is happening in China and we are seeing beginning to happen in Europe, South America and probably later this year in the U.S.

According to The Economist, China, the world’s largest car market, shrank for the first time in over 20 years in 2018. Sales fell by 2.8% to 28.1 million vehicles and slid by 13% in December alone, giving a taste of what may be in store this year.

The U.S. market could be due for a severe shakeup if President Donald Trump’s threat to slap import tariffs on foreign cars comes into effect.

UBS Bank reckons that the worst case — tariffs of 25% — would see the American market shrink by 12% next year.

Further out, there are certainly challenges.

The consulting firm Bain & Company, is quoted by the paper as saying that America’s driving-age population is not growing (a trend mirrored in the rest of the world, the paper says). The firm reckons that the American market, currently at 17 million cars a year, could shrink to 10 million by 2025.

But for now, automakers are struggling to cope with a market that was growing strongly but has now taken a turn for the worse. China was for many Western brands their most profitable market. Not only have overall passenger car sales fallen, but Western automakers have been most heavily hit as the Chinese have reacted to the trade standoff by shunning foreign makes.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

Car sales are not going to rise until confidence and growth picks up — when that may be remains to be seen, but for this year more of the same seems the most likely.

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This morning in metals, we’re getting up to speed on where the tin market could be in a decade, what U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are continuing to discuss, and where the EU car market seems to be heading (hint: it’s not good news).

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Tin Metal Use Expected to Boom Due to Batteries

The International Tin Association (ITA) recently said that tin could experience “a surge of new demand from lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage of up to 60,000 tonnes a year by 2030,” according to Reuters.

According to that report, the ITA did not forecast any numbers of overall tin consumption in 2030, but “it has seen rising interest in the metal for energy materials and technologies.” Last fall, the group went on record forecasting a global tin market surplus of 500 metric tons in 2018 mainly due to weaker demand in China, according to Reuters.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Mention Big Semiconductor Moves

Among the things trade negotiators for both countries discussed at the table recently, according to the WSJ (paywall), were a proposal to increase U.S. semiconductor sales to China to a total over six years of $200 billion (although “that increase would be generated in part by moving assembly operations of U.S. semiconductors from third countries like Mexico and Malaysia to China, allowing those products to be counted as U.S. exports rather than those of other countries”…so much for reshoring).

The Chinese also offered “to eliminate a national vehicle-procurement policy that has given consumers subsidies to buy domestically made new-energy, small-engine and other types of cars,” according to the WSJ.

E.U. Car Market Looking Dim

Speaking of vehicles, while carmakers like Ford are worried about what a hard Brexit may mean for their plants, they may have bigger, more systemic issues when it comes to the E.U. and U.K. car markets.

“European car sales declined for a fifth straight month in January,” and “passenger car registrations dropped 4.6 percent compared with last year to 1.23 million vehicles in the European Union and European Free Trade Association, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association,” as reported by Bloomberg.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

Of course, all eyes on on China and its auto market to see if glimmers of hope are on the horizon.

[Editor’s Note: This is the second part of our three-part series on how tariff impacts — positive or negative — are perceived, the history of Section 232, and China’s role in the global steel marketplace (and how that has affected the U.S.). In case you missed it, Part 1 can be read here.]

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The Bush tariffs of 2002 came as a result of a Section 201, as opposed to a Section 232 investigation. The Trade Act of 1974 covers Section 201 investigations, whereas Section 232 derives its authority as part of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, based on national security grounds.

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MetalMiner conducted an analysis of every single Section 232 case initiated since the passage of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The results suggest market observers need to dig into the details further to see why various presidents have taken action on imports of particular commodities, as well as what types of action they have taken.

Section 232 has been invoked 26 times.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of ITC data

Of the seven times in which a primary metal industry initiated a Section 232 investigation, in only one case — this most recent one — did the president determine action was necessary to adjust imports. However, in one of the cases, President Ronald Reagan agreed to update the National Defense Stockpile.

Of the seven times in which a derivative metal industry (nuts, bolts, bearings, parts) initiated a Section 232 investigation, in no cases did the president conclude action was necessary to adjust imports. However, in one case, for metal cutting and metal forming machine tools, Reagan deferred a decision on Section 232 and instead sought voluntary agreements with foreign suppliers; indeed, one went into effect for a period of five years and was extended for two additional years.

In all other cases, the only industry that received Section 232 relief has been petroleum or oil. Now that the U.S. has achieved energy independence, MetalMiner suspects the U.S. will not see a case made under Section 232 for this commodity (so long as the U.S. remains energy independent).

The U.S., however, is not steel independent, meaning the U.S. does require some level of imports to satisfy domestic demand.

Historical analysis suggests the U.S. has filed about the same number of anti-dumping cases today as it did in the late 1950s-1970s. The difference today, though, comes down to the imposition of duties; far more are implemented today than during that earlier time period.

Logically, as tariffs have steadily declined, imports have grown, while today the number of products targeted for anti-dumping measures has declined since the 1980s.

What Has Changed and Why Should Anyone Care?

In a word: China.

In 1960, China produced a total of 18.5 million tons of steel, whereas the U.S. produced about 6 million tons. Incidentally, the price of a ton of steel in 1962 was $144/ton — or $1,180/ton in today’s dollars!

It wasn’t until 1996 when China first produced 100 million metric tons of steel. And the real growth happened after China ascended to the WTO in 2001, growing steel production from 128.5 million metric tons in 2000 to nearly 495 million metric tons in 2007.

Source: MetalMiner analysis of World Steel Association data

Obviously, as China’s economy began to grow, steel demand also grew. Any market observer would also expect production to increase to support economic growth.

Perhaps the more interesting statistic to examine is production against demand. By looking at the production figures above, one might assume that demand also steadily increased since 2007.

But did it?

Source: MetalMiner analysis of World Steel Association data

In a word: no.

China’s demand peaked in 2013 at 772 million tons, declined and then reached 767 million tons in 2017, whereas China produced 779 million tons in 2013 (a little higher than demand). But in 2017 China produced 831.7 million tons for a surplus of 64.7 million tons.

2018 statistics show China produced more steel than any year in its history — 923 million metric tons, according to Reuters, against a demand projection that is at best flat to slightly up from 2017, based on a MetalMiner analysis. Assuming demand of 780 million tons, that would suggest a surplus of over 140 million metric tons.

U.S. demand and production, in contrast, appears paltry.

It should come as no surprise that the Trump administration has taken significant steps to shore up the domestic industry against Chinese imports.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

The only study that takes into consideration these factors, such as actual demand and actual supply, involved the original Department of Commerce studies on Section 232.

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This morning in metals news, ArcelorMittal  on steel demand in China (and elsewhere), copper lost ground after several upward sessions in a row and Mexico’s steel industry is not happy with the government’s decision to not renew steel safeguards protecting against steel from countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement.

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Chinese Steel Demand

ArcelorMittal expects the steel sector to come back down a bit after a run of strong prices, according to a Bloomberg report.

Unsurprisingly, much of that expected decline has to do with softening demand in China. Per the report, the firm expects steel demand growth to slow around the world,  and contract in China for the first time since 2015.

Copper Falls

After three straight upward sessions for London copper, the price fell back Thursday, Reuters reported.

LME copper fell 0.2% Thursday, according to the report. Meanwhile, Chinese markets remain closed over the Lunar New Year holiday break.

Mexico’s Steel Safeguards

According to an S&P Global Platts report, Mexican industry groups are not happy with the government’s decision to let a 15% steel safeguard lapse.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

The safeguard applied to imports from countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement, according to the report.

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This morning in metals news, copper rises for third straight session, President Donald Trump’s State of the Union addresses China, NAFTA and more, and Japan’s Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. reported its quarterly earnings.

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Copper Picks Up

According to Reuters, the copper price rose for the third straight session Wednesday.

With a March deadline approaching — after which Trump has pledged the U.S. will increase the tariff rate from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods coming into the U.S. — the report states another round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled next week in Beijing. As such, the copper price picked up, as it has when the news cycle shifts toward the easing of trade tensions between the two economic powerhouses.

Trump Talks China, NAFTA During State of the Union

After a delay due to the partial government shutdown, President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address before members of Congress Tuesday night.

As U.S.-China trade talks continue — with talks scheduled for next week in Beijing after a recent visit from Vice Premier Liu He to Washington, D.C. — Trump again cited U.S. trade gripes against China.

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This morning in metals news, U.S. steel mills’ capacity utilization rate inched up this past week, India’s steel sector looks to the government for protection from diverted steel, and the Office of the United States Representative (USTR) released its annual report on the WTO compliance of China and Russia.

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Steel Utilization Rate Hits 80.5%

Steel mills in the U.S. have operated at a capacity utilization rate of 80.5% through Feb. 2, according to this week’s report by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Adjusted year-to-date production reached 8.95 million tons. Meanwhile, for the same period in 2017, steel mills produced 8.12 million tons at a 73.8% capacity utilization rate.

India’s Steel Sector Leery of Diverted Steel

According to a Reuters report, the Indian steel sector is looking for assistance from the Indian government via import duties to ward off diverted steel supplies.

Recently, the E.U.’s member states voted to impose new steel safeguards that will remain in place as late as July 2021. The move came as European producers worried steel supplies that would have been destined for the U.S. would be diverted elsewhere following the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

As for India, according to the Reuters report, Indian steelmakers have complained to the government that China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are allegedly dumping cheap steel in India, eating into domestic producers’ market share.

USTR Release Report on China, WTO Compliance

Pursuant to the U.S.-China Relations Act of 2000 — by which the USTR must present an annual report to Congress on China’s compliance with WTO rules and regulations — the USTR released its 17th report vis-a-vis China.

“The United States’ approach to China is more aggressive than in the past,” the report’s executive summary states. “Out of necessity, the United States is now using all available tools – including domestic trade remedies, bilateral negotiations, WTO litigation and strategic engagement with like-minded trading partners – to respond to the unique and very serious challenges presented by China. But the goal for the United States remains the same. The United States seeks a trade relationship with China that is fair, reciprocal and balanced.”

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

The full report is available here.

China is one of the most-watched economies in the world because its health ties in heavily with overall global economic growth. Further, there is a strong correlation between the Chinese economy as an industrial metals demand generator and the primary metals market outlook.

MetalMiner has always followed some Chinese indicators in order to completely understand and correlate metals markets. Let’s take a look at some indicators buying organizations may want to consider.

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Chinese Annual GDP Growth is Flattening

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its 2019 annual average global growth projection down to 3.5% from 3.7% on the heels of China’s growth slowdown: why?

China’s contribution to total global growth is strong, accounting for an estimated one-third of total growth annually.

Figure 1. China’s flattening growth curve may mean a continued sideways trend in base metals. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index Is Trending Downward

The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, an index which measures manufacturing confidence, is presently trending negatively.

The most recent downward trend emerged with the United States tariff changes in early 2018; however, the Chinese Caixin PMI is still trending higher than it did in 2017.

Figure 2. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index, 2014 – 2018
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi

Figure 3. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Index – Previous 14 Months
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/manufacturing-pmi

While Chinese manufacturers’ confidence appears lower overall as measured by the PMI, the bigger picture of Chinese economic confidence is more nuanced.

The Manufacturing PMI showed weaker sentiment when compared to other major sectors of the Chinese economy, while the Industrial Production and Mining Indexes showed improved confidence over the prior reporting period. In terms of the automotive industry, car production figures dropped while total vehicle sales and car registrations went up in absolute numbers.

Honson To, chairman of KPMG in the Asia-Pacific region and China, also finds reason to remain optimistic over China’s growth prospects this year, namely in the areas of domestic infrastructure projects and high-tech manufacturing. He expects infrastructure investments to contribute to continued Chinese growth, especially in the areas of high-speed railways and roads. Additionally, he projects further growth in the advanced manufacturing sector during 2019.

Beyond the direct stimulus impact, these upgrades to infrastructure will benefit the country by strengthening regional transportation across the vast country. While China boasts the world’s largest population, in terms of density it is much further down the list; therefore, improved regional infrastructure should provide a domestic stimulus for the Chinese national economy.

On the other hand, there will likely be a lag by up to a year in terms of how these domestic infrastructure projects will impact growth numbers, given the nature of such projects, as pointed out by Alistair Ramsay, a research manager with Fastmarkets, during a Jan. 25 BrightTalk presentation on the steel sector in China entitled “Ferrous Metal, Full Steam Ahead?”

The Chinese Stock Market is Showing Weakness

Figure 4. The China Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index declined throughout 2018.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/stock-market

A look at the Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index shows a trend toward declining stock prices throughout 2018.

Additionally, a recent Goldman Sachs analysis of 20 well-traded stocks shows more weakness than expected coming from the domestic side of the Chinese economy, stating that the slowdown is visible in the data from the 20 stocks selected for the analysis.

Weakened performance in the consumer and producer markets has led to much speculation that the domestic slowdown has hit to a greater extent than expected.

Domestic pessimism over the Chinese economy’s health due to the U.S.’s aggressive tariff policies is viewed as the key issue, as tariffs are effectively curbing exports and slowing overall growth.

This, in turn, is impacting the U.S. through poorer market performance (take, for example, Apple’s recent off-target profit estimates resulting from weaker Chinese domestic demand for iPhones).

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows into China Remain Stable

As a factor potentially in support of China’s growth in the sectors identified by Honson, foreign direct investment (FDI) throughout the first half of 2018 (the latest dates for which figures are available) remained stable against a backdrop of falling FDI worldwide across both developed and developing countries.

According to the latest figures from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, “FDI went up 3 percent year-on-year to $135 billion in 2018, while that of the world’s total and developed countries slumped 41 percent and 69 percent, respectively, in the first half of 2018.”

The strength of FDI in China is only second to the United States, according to another recent analysis. It should be noted that these figures, like those of the Chinese government, do not reflect the latter months of 2018 and are based on a 10-year analysis.

Others are more critical of the FDI situation in China, pointing out that even Chinese investors may prefer to invest elsewhere given a restrictive domestic investment environment resulting from recent Chinese government policies.

According to Baker McKenzie, “Sweden, the UK, Germany and France were the top destinations for Chinese investment in the first half of 2018.” The move toward heavier Chinese investment in the E.U. was also spurred on by the trade situation with the U.S., according to the same report.

The Yuan Regained Weakness Against the Dollar in 2018

Figure 5. Long-term Comparison of the USDCNY – Index of the U.S. Dollar Against the Chinese Yuan
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/currency

Chinese policymakers are well-known for their currency price control.

Once the yuan was devalued in 1994, the currency stayed under very tight government control, with very little change against the dollar for many years.

Quantitative easing is a popular technique; the Chinese government is well-known for injecting liquidity in the banking system to control the value of the currency.

Figure 6. The Appreciation of the Yuan Against the Dollar As a Result of Trade Policies During 2018 Quickly Reversed

The long-term effect of China’s intensive depreciation policy is to make steel and aluminum products cheaper.

Even in the current trade environment with applicable tariffs, steel and aluminum are still cheaper when compared with buying them in the U.S. due to the currency exchange rate between the U.S. and China. This situation is more or less continuing in an unmitigated fashion, as the Chinese government continues to exert artificial controls on the exchange rate. 

So What Does That Mean for Metals?

If it’s not a stock market boom year, we might expect the metals market to continue to trend sideways, if not head upwards.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

However, if the dollar stays strong, that should offset some of the gain — metals may see lower prices and then still fall in line with the sideways trend. This question is still undecided and is wrapped into the story of trade between the U.S. and China.

Beyond the strong U.S. dollar, the global production outlook appears moderate.

To read more about China’s growth in historical context, see Stuart Burns’ recent article.

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This morning in metals news, buyers are turning to Australia after a dam breach at one of Vale’s Brazilian iron ore operations, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said the Trump administration should lift its Section 232 tariffs before the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is ratified and U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume this week.

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Iron Ore Supply

Following a dam breach at Brazilian miner Vale S.A.’s Corrego do Feijao mine — which left at least 60 dead and hundreds missing — buyers are looking elsewhere to meet some of the lost supply.

According to Reuters, buyers could look to Australia for their supply, which could knock Vale off from its position as the top seaborne iron ore supplier.

Grassley: Administration Must Lift Section 232 Tariffs Before Congress Ratifies USMCA

The Iowa senator, in a statement co-authored with Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, wrote in a statement Wednesday that the Trump administration should lift its steel and aluminum tariffs vis-a-vis Canada and Mexico before Congress ratifies the trilateral trade deal.

“Unfortunately, our producers are unlikely to realize the market access promises of USMCA while the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico remain. Because of these tariffs, Mexico and Canada have imposed retaliatory tariffs on American exports,” the statement said. “Mexico has hit our pork exports with a 20 percent tariff. According to Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes, this is costing our pork producers $12 per animal, meaning industrywide losses of $1.5 billion annually. Paired with Chinese retaliatory tariffs on pork, soybeans, corn and wheat, our farmers need relief fast.

“Before Congress considers legislation to implement USMCA, the Administration should lift tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from our top two trading partners and secure the elimination of retaliatory tariffs that stand to wipe out gains our farmers have made over the past two and a half decades. As one of Iowa’s U.S. senators and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which is tasked with leading the implementation of USMCA in the Senate, and as the secretary of agriculture for one of the largest pork, dairy, poultry, soybean, corn and cattle-exporting states in the nation, we’ll be working all hands on deck to get the job done. But we need the Administration to help us pave the way.”

U.S.-China Trade Talks Continue

The U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks this week with a visit to Washington, D.C. scheduled from China’s Vice Premier Liu He, Reuters reported.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

According to the report, President Donald Trump will meet with Liu on Thursday.

The New York Times reports this week that China’s economy continues to gently slow its pace of growth.

For the last three months of 2018, growth came in at 6.4% compared with a year earlier, the paper said, its slowest pace since a decade ago. For the full year, the Chinese economy grew at 6.6% — its weakest pace of growth since 1990, but still stellar compared to Europe or the U.S.

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Should we be surprised?

No, we shouldn’t be.

China is, after all, a maturing economy and has appeared to be on a managed deceleration for years. Not since the debt-fueled, post-financial-crisis boom in 2010, when it peaked at over 12%, has growth been in double digits.

But some are wondering whether we should we be questioning the numbers themselves.

Read more

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This morning in metals news, China’s daily crude steel output slipped in December, miner Rio Tinto reported its fourth-quarter production results and Luxembourg-based Tenaris purchased a large stake in the Saudi Steel Pipe Company.

Steel Output Slides

China’s daily steel output for December fell to its lowest level since March, according to Reuters.

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Daily output fell 5% from November to December, according to the report.

Rio Reports Q4 Results

Miner Rio Tinto reported Q4 2018 Pilbara iron ore shipments and production fell 3% and 1%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

However, copper production in Q4 jumped 20% year over year.

“We delivered a solid operational performance in the final quarter of 2018, in particular across our copper assets,” Rio Tinto CEO J-S Jacques said. “During the year, we further strengthened our asset portfolio, continuing to invest in high quality growth. 2018 saw the early completion of Amrun, the deployment of AutoHaul™, the Koodaideri and Robe River investments and the signing of the power agreement at Oyu Tolgoi. Meanwhile, we completed disposals of $8.6 billion, including the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and our remaining coal assets.”

Tenaris Buys Stake in Saudi Steel Pipe Company

Luxembourg-based firm Tenaris S.A. has purchased a 47.79% stake in the Saudi Steel Pipe Company.

MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2019 buying strategies for carbon steel

The stake was purchased at a cost of $141 million. The Saudi firm has an annual manufacturing capacity of 360,000 tons.