This morning in metals news, oil and gold prices opened slightly lower despite the missile attacks on Syria that took place early Saturday morning local time. NAFTA renegotiation talks speed up in face of Mexico’s upcoming presidential election. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Oil, Gold Traded Lower Following […]
Category: Metal Prices
Aluminum Recovers With More Than 13% Price Jump in a Week
At the end of week before last, aluminum prices seemed to struggle; some thought the metal might have shifted to bearish country. However, after that LME aluminum prices jumped by more than 13% in a week. LME aluminum prices retraced to August resistance levels ($1,972/mt), and then increased sharply again. Need buying strategies for steel? […]
Week in Review: MMI Week, Rusal Takes a Hit and Taking on Overcapacity
Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week that was and some of the headlines here on MetalMiner: Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook In case you missed it, check out our Monthly Metal Index (MMI) reports for: Copper Global Precious Aluminum Raw […]
The April MMI Report: LME Metals Fall While U.S. Steel Gets a Boost
Our latest round of Monthly Metal Index (MMI) reports is in, snapshotting what was a particularly busy month in the world of metals. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Last month, the Trump administration enacted Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which had been a topic of […]
GOES MMI: No Exemption Requests on Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel
Last month MetalMiner made the following statement: “The impact on Grain Oriented Electrical steel buying organizations, MetalMiner believes, will not exactly mirror the broader impact of the tariffs on commonly purchased steel forms, alloys and grades.”
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We don’t always get it right but indeed, GOES M3 prices fell last month in comparison to across-the-board price increases for all or nearly all other carbon flat rolled product categories.
Meanwhile, although MetalMiner knows of one buying organization pursuing an exclusion request via the recently published exclusion process, no company has yet to file one (at least as of April 11). That will change as GOES imports continue to arrive.
This month import levels jumped, as did Japanese imports, in particular.
[caption id="attachment_91308" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of ITC trade data[/caption]
Of note, Chinese imports remain negligible (240 tons) and no imports came from South Korea.
What About the Section 301 Investigation?
A quick search revealed that the 301 investigation also includes grain-oriented electrical steel with HTS Codes: 72261110, 72261190, 72261910 and 72261990 — basically “alloy silicon electrical steel (grain-oriented) of various widths.”
However, the 301 investigation does not include either transformer parts (8504.90.9546) or wound cores (8504.90.9542), both of which could come into the U.S. under current prevailing market treatment.
MetalMiner will update readers when/if President Trump publishes a proclamation on the 301 investigation.
MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2018 buying strategies for carbon steel
Exact GOES Coil Price This Month
This Morning in Metals: Thyssenkrupp, Tata Delay Signing Joint Venture Pending Labor Talks
This morning in metals news, big firms Thyssenkrupp and Tata Steel are delaying the signing of a previously agreed to joint venture for their European operations, Chinese steel is retracing and LME zinc has hit a four-month low. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Thyssenkrupp, Tata Delay Inking Deal […]
This Morning in Metals: Rusal Metal Pulled from LME, CME
This morning in metals news, Russian aluminum giant Rusal saw its shares pulled from global indexes and its metal disallowed from the London Metal Exchange and CME Group, one analyst says Russian aluminum will find its way to market in some way and the Chinese iron ore price dropped Wednesday. Need buying strategies for steel? […]
Stainless Steel MMI: LME Nickel Prices Fall But Stainless Steel Surcharges Rise
The Stainless Steel MMI (Monthly Metals Index) inched one point higher in April. The current reading is 76 points.
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The index’s increase was driven by the rise in stainless steel surcharges, despite slightly falling LME nickel prices this month. Other related metals in the stainless steel basket increased.
LME Nickel
In April, nickel price momentum appears to have recovered from its previous pace.
LME nickel prices dropped in March, along with other base metals. However, the drop appears less sharp than for aluminum or copper.
[caption id="attachment_91260" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
LME nickel prices remain high and far away from 2017 lows back in May or June, when MetalMiner recommended buying organizations buy some volume forward. Prices back at that time were around $8,800/mt versus the current $13,200/mt price level.
Domestic Stainless Steel Market
Following the recovery in stainless steel momentum, domestic stainless steel surcharges increased this month.
The 316/316L-coil NAS surcharge reached $0.96/pound. Therefore, buying organizations may want to look at surcharges to identify opportunities to reduce price risk either via forward buys or hedging.
[caption id="attachment_91261" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
The pace of stainless steel surcharge increases appears to have slowed this month. However, surcharges have increased from 2017. The 316/316L-coil NAS surcharge is closer to $0.96/pound.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Stainless steel momentum appears stronger this month, with steel prices skyrocketing.
As both steel and nickel remain in a bull market, buying organizations may want to follow the market closely for opportunities to buy on the dips.
To understand how to adapt buying strategies to your specific needs on a monthly basis, take a free trial of our Monthly Outlook now.
MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2018 buying strategies for carbon steel
Actual Stainless Steel Prices and Trends
This Morning in Metals: China Files Complaint at WTO Over U.S. Tariffs
This morning in metals news, China filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, the president of the China Baowu Steel Group says the tariffs would have a limited impact on Chinese exports and LME aluminum prices jumped more than 7% after the U.S. sanctions on Russian […]
Aluminum MMI: LME Aluminum Continues Downtrend
The April Aluminum MMI (Monthly Metals Index) fell three points. A weaker LME aluminum price led to the price retracement. The current Aluminum MMI index stands at 94 points, 3% lower than in March.
LME aluminum price momentum slowed again this month. LME aluminum prices remain in a current two-month downtrend.
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[caption id="attachment_91252" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Though some may want to declare a bearish market for aluminum, prices are still over the $1,975 level, when MetalMiner recommended buying organizations buy forward. Prices may retrace back toward that level. However, if prices fall below the blue-dotted line, aluminum prices could shift toward bearish territory.
SHFE Aluminum
SHFE aluminum spot prices also fell this month. The degree of the decline appears less sharp than for LME prices. However, SHFE aluminum spot prices started to fall in October 2017.
[caption id="attachment_91253" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum stocks fell in March for the first time in more than nine months. Decreasing stocks sometimes point to falling inventories of aluminum in China, the world’s biggest aluminum producer and consumer. SHFE stocks dropped by 154 tons in March, according to exchange data released at the beginning of April. However, SHFE aluminum stocks still stand at 970,233 tons.
MW Aluminum Premiums
Meanwhile, U.S. Midwest aluminum premiums fell for the first time since November 2017. The $0.01/pound drop at the beginning of April comes after a sharp uptrend in the premium. Despite the lower premium this month, the pace of the increases may continue for some time.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
LME aluminum price retracement may give buying organizations a good opportunity to buy, as prices may increase again.
However, as prices are currently trading lower, buying organizations may want to wait until the market shows a clearer direction. Therefore, adapting the “right” buying strategy becomes crucial to reducing risks.
Given the ongoing uncertainty around aluminum and aluminum products, buying organizations may want to take a free trial now to our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook.
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Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends