gold price

The Global Precious Metals MMI dropped by nearly 3% this month. Palladium dropped the most, though silver also looked comparatively weak.

Precious Metals

Gold Prices Trends: Bullish or Bearish?

Gold has started to trade within a range formed by swing lows and highs. A break above either range will clear up the overall direction. Without a “big picture” view, the overall direction remains unclear.

Precious metals

According to a recent article, at least three gold analysts have a more bearish opinion of gold for the longer term. The analysts include James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC Securities and Suki Cooper, Executive Director of Precious Metals Research Standard Chartered. There’s also Rhona O’Connell, head of Europe and Asian market analysis at StoneX Financial Ltd. Even with an uncertain technical analysis, the group has pointed to a few factors most likely to stop gold’s bull run. The first being a strong dollar. The second is the Fed’s recent belt-tightening.

That said, gold tends to stay strong in both deflationary and stagflationary markets. Rising interest rates signify deflationary actions designed to put the brakes on price increases. However, many remain concerned that the US economy could tip to stagflation. This is a condition typified by slowed economic growth, rising prices, and higher unemployment. Were this to happen, precious metals prices will fluctuate greatly.

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Gold

Silver, by way of comparison, shares the same outlook as gold. However, the price of silver looks weaker with each prior high it takes out. As sell orders are filled, buyer strength gets depleted. Still, silver has room to rise in the short term before it reaches the major supply zone seen on HTFs. HTFs, in this case, stand for “high time frame.” You can see a clear example by looking at the chart on a daily, weekly, and monthly scale.

Meanwhile, platinum and palladium prices are making their own moves.

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Palladium

Precious Metals Prices: Platinum and Palladium

In the case of platinum, prices have begun to shift upwards on shorter time frames. It’s as if they’re targeting newly-introduced supply zones. The introduction of supply basically resulted in newly-formed bearish “order blocks.” Designed to create an inefficiency in price or, this can contribute to stronger moves. Prices begin to correct on a small scale as each weak high gets taken out in anticipation of a “mini-rally” into bearish ranges. That said, from a technical perspective, platinum has a similar outlook to gold and silver.

Platinum

Palladium prices appear weaker overall. Certainly weaker than platinum. The metal’s failure to form any swing highs has caused bias to the downside. Weak lows need sweeping for the trend to resume. In the meantime, short-term rallies will serve as entries for short-sellers as prices continue to form lower highs. Industrial buyers will of course implement a different strategy.

Actual Metal Prices:

  • US palladium prices dropped from $$2254/oz to  $1950/oz.
  • Japanese silver prices dropped from $7.26/ten grams to $6.74/ten grams

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The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell by 0.9% for this month’s index reading, largely due to falling silver prices.

Precious metals prices

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Rising interest rates tend to dampen investor sentiment toward precious metals. Gold and silver typically act as a store of value, particularly during periods of high inflation. Therefore, the Fed’s half-point interest rate increase can largely be blamed for recent price weakness. In essence, the market has priced in the policies deployed by the Fed.

During times of uncertainty, gold and silver are considered safe-haven assets. In this case, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, and the VIX (volatility index) are providing tailwinds for precious metals. Silver, on the other hand, has not seen the same highs. This is precisely why many experts are claiming that it’s time has come.

Silver prices

Source: MetalMiner Insights

However, from a technical analysis perspective, prices have begun to break down. Indeed, the macro trend has already turned to the downside, while price action shows signs of a market structure shifting downward on daily/weekly time frames. Moreover, support levels and price floors have yet to be established. As you can see, this has left silver to plummet through prior lows and take out any retail support.

Silver price chart

Gold Prices Look Similar to Silver

The precious metals MMI also shows that gold prices have continued their downward trend as well. This is mostly due to a recent shift in market structure beginning in late April. As prior lows continue to show weakness, price action suggests gold will look for stronger support levels. We suggest these will range between $1780-$1820/troy ounce, as indicated in the graph.

Gold Price Chart

Platinum Also Saw Price Declines

Platinum prices declined by over 5% percent month over month. Of course, platinum’s number one end-use application remains auto exhaust systems. And while global automakers show some month-over-month growth, production remains well below pre-pandemic production levels.

As always, buyers should familiarize themselves with the five best metal sourcing practices

In Other News: The Dollar Gains Strength

The US dollar continued its recent ascent, moving from 98.63 to over 103. Typically, a strong dollar equates to lower commodity prices. Interestingly enough, the CRB index appears to have held onto its gains while shifting into a short-term sideways pattern. Although April’s CPI finally dropped (to 8.3%), the decline was merely a result of drops in energy prices. The remaining core index has yet to find a floor. Still, according to the WSJ, the core price index increased by .6% after March’s .3% gain.

 Actual Metals Prices And Trends

  • The biggest movers included Japanese silver, which fell 9.8% to $7.26 per ten grams. Meanwhile, US silver fell 8.47% to $22.74/oz, and Japanese platinum fell by 8.35% to $29.17/gram.
  • The only upward movement came from US palladium bars which increased by 2.32% to $2254/ounce. However, it’s worth noting that those prices have since slipped.

 

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 6.8% for this month’s reading. This represents the second month in a row of precious metals inswz increases. Last month the index increased by 4.1%.

Palladium, and to a lesser extent, platinum drove the index higher. Most of the other precious metals held flat or fell.

The palladium price rise this month may have more to do with the anticipated Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although MetalMiner has covered this geopolitical event through the lens of other metals, particularly steel and aluminum, Russia supplies 35% of the world’s palladium. Palladium, as opposed to platinum, has made its way into more newer cars. It has become the “precious metal of choice” for catalytic converters.

The increase in January’s Global Precious Metal MMI comes down to strong palladium demand from the automotive industry. Constrained supply also plays a role.

The Global Precious Metals MMI along with all inflation/deflation indexes from MetalMiner are available as a free monthly report.

Automakers will dictate where palladium and platinum go from here

Although some automotive shortages have eased, automakers give a cloudy view on production forecasts beyond the current quarter. Toyota and Honda, in particular appear cautious while Ford and GM appear more confident about production numbers.

The truck blockade of the Windsor Bridge, a key trade route between Canada and the US, dissipated Saturday only to continue as of press time. Nonetheless the blockade did impact inbound raw material supply to the automotive industry.

Gold – the real story

Now that the US military believes Putin has confirmed his intentions to invade Ukraine, gold looks particularly poised to rise based on technical analysis.  Silver too could follow in gold’s footsteps, should war ensue.

 Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading View data

 Fed tapering

With tapering already in effect and more to come, gold watchers have likely anticipated falling prices. Moreover, rising interest rates have also historically put a damper on gold prices. But today’s markets look a bit different. Many metal prices have moved without explanation.

MetalMiner uses artificial intelligence and technical analysis to identify buying strategies for a full range of precious metals.

Key indicators

MetalMiner’s own technical analysis/forecasting team has their eyes on the Russian/Ukranian situation, the VIX and key economic indicators such as housing starts, which have started to slow. These indicators and how traders respond to these will dictate where gold goes next.

Actual prices and trends

China palladium increased the most jumping early 23% to $83.33/gram from $67.83/gram. US palladium increased similarly, up 20.22% from $1845/ounce to $2218/ounce.

Silver fell .15% from $23.30/ounce to $23.26/ounce. Gold, meanwhile moved similarly at .15% from $1829.80/ounce to $1832.60/ounce.

 

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell 4.7% for this month’s MMI value, as gold prices slipped to close November.

December 2021 Global Precious MMI chart

MetalMiner has launched a full suite of precious metals as part of the MetalMiner Insights platform. 

Gold price ups and downs

gold price

Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

As MetalMiner Insights subscribers may have noted — the Insights platform now offers a suite of precious metals price points — the U.S. gold bullion price surged in the middle of the month before falling back.

After opening the month at $1,784 per ounce, the U.S. gold bullion price surged to $1,867 per ounce by mid-month. However, the price backtracked down to $1,785 per ounce as of the start of December.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, which historically correlates inversely with gold, picked up momentum in November. After falling to just over 93 to close October, the U.S. dollar rose as a high as 96.88 as of Thanksgiving. Since then, the dollar fell closer to 96 before trading sideways.

Inflation at nearly 40-year high

Earlier this month, the U.S. government reported the Consumer Price Index for the last 12 months increased by 6.8%. Inflation is at its highest level in nearly 40 years.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 12-month increase marked the largest jump since June 1982.

Gold prices also posted gains Friday on the heels of the latest inflation report.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the inflation report, higher energy prices continued to weigh on consumers.

Read more

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) lost ground this month, dropping by 12.9% as the gold price declined and the dollar strengthened last month.

October 2021 Global Precious MMI

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Gold slides, dollar gains

The U.S. gold bullion price fell in September, dropping from $1,814 per ounce as of Sept. 1 to $1,757 on Oct. 1, a 3.1% drop.

Meanwhile, gold historically correlates inversely with the U.S. dollar. Unsurprisingly, the U.S. dollar showed strength in September.

Last month, the Federal Reserve indicated it could soon finally begin tapering asset purchases, which is supportive for the dollar.

After closing Sept. 1 at 92.45, the U.S. dollar index closed Oct. 1 at 94.03.

Fed could begin tapering

As mentioned, the Federal Reserve last month indicated it could be set to begin tapering asset purchases.

Read more

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell by 4.2% for this month’s reading, as the gold price took losses early in the month before bouncing back.

September 2021 Global Precious MMI

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Gold price recovers

gold price

Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

The gold price bounced back after falling to around $1,730 per ounce in early August.

From there, the U.S. gold bullion price rose to $1,815 by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, which typically has an inverse correlation with gold, picked up in the first two-thirds of the month. The dollar index peaked at 93.57 on Aug. 19 before retracing, closing the month at 92.63.

In other relevant indicators, 30-year Treasury bond yield rates opened August at 1.86% and climbed to a high of 2.03% on Aug. 12 before retreating. The 30-year yield rate closed the month at 1.92%.

Thus far in September, the 30-year yield has continued to retreat, closing Tuesday, Sept. 14, at 1.85%.

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield opened August at 1.20% before closing the month at 1.30%.

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The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell by 0.7% for this month’s reading.

August 2021 Global Precious MMI chart

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Gold price slides

gold price

Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

After showing strength in April and May, the gold price has continued to slide in June and July.

The U.S. gold bullion price closed July at just over $1,800 per ounce after closing the previous month at around $1,844 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, which typically moves inversely to gold prices, has gained strength in recent months. After dipping below 89 in late May, the U.S. dollar has picked up steam, closing Wednesday at 93.

Read more

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 1.3% for this month’s reading, as the gold price rose to around $1,900 per ounce.

June 2021 Global Precious MMI

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Gold price picks up to close May

gold price

Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

The gold price made steady gains in May, rising to around $1,900 per ounce to close the month.

Since then, however, the price dropped to around $1,860 per ounce to start June. The gold price then bounced back to around $1,890 per ounce Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which generally moves inversely to the gold price, dropped in early May. After that, the dollar trended sideways, closing Tuesday at 90.08.

In other economic indicators, the U.S. 30-year treasury yield, which also generally moves inversely to the gold price, fell to 2.21% on Tuesday. The yield curve rate marked its lowest level since March 2.

The 10-year yield fell to 1.53%, its lowest since March 10.

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The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) jumped by 7.1% for this month’s index reading, as the gold price gained while the US dollar retraced.

May 2021 Global Precious MMI chart

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Gold price up to three-month high

After stumbling to around $1,735 per ounce in late February, the gold price has gradually picked up steam.

The gold price closed April around $1,790 per ounce. However, gold really picked up last week, closing Friday at around $1,831 per ounce.

The price marked its highest since February.

Instructive for commodities in general, the US dollar has lost strength in recent weeks. In general, the US dollar and gold trade inversely.

The US dollar index closed March at 93.30 before steadily declining in April down to 90.60. Despite a slight recovery in early May, the dollar has continued to slide. The dollar index closed Friday at 90.23.

Meanwhile, in other economic indicators, the 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.28% last week. Generally, the gold price correlates inversely with bond yields.

The 30-year yield reached a 2021 high of 2.45% in March.

The 10-year yield closed last week at 1.60% after hitting a 2021 high of 1.74% in March.

Furthermore, the US added 266,000 jobs in April, well below expectations. The underwhelming jobs report follows the addition of 916,000 jobs in March. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 6.1% from 6.0% in March.

Read more

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose by 3.7%, as the gold price trended sideways in March.

April 2021 Global Precious MMI chart

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Gold flat in March, picks up in April

gold price

Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

Late last year, MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns touched on the gold price’s prospects in 2021.

Gold surged above $2,030 per ounce last August amid ongoing economic uncertainty and well before the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.

Since then, however, the gold price has cooled significantly. From the aforementioned peak, gold has dipped approximately 15%.

The gold price trended sideways throughout March, settling in around $1,730 per ounce. Despite a dip in treasury yields — which gold typically moves inversely to — the price largely held in place, as the US dollar strengthened.

The US dollar index rose to 93.30 in late March before retreating in the first week of April (coinciding with a modest bounceback for gold and silver).

So far this month, however, gold has shown some upward momentum. The gold price picked up Thursday, approaching the $1,760 per ounce mark.

Like gold price, silver price bounces back in April

Meanwhile, the silver price narrative followed a similar theme to that of the gold price.

After reaching $28.10 per ounce in February, the silver spot price fell to just below $25.00 per ounce to start April. Over the last week, silver has clawed back some gains, reaching around $25.50 per ounce Thursday.

While silver is often most thought of for its use in jewelry and kitchen utensils, the precious metal does have high-tech industrial applications.

As MetalMiner’s Stuart Burns noted earlier this week, nations around the world will need to secure their supply chains for the next industrial revolution, whether it’s the broader push toward renewable energy or the automotive sector’s transition toward electrification.

Among other uses, silver is used in semiconductors. As we’ve discussed at great length in recent months, the semiconductor shortage continues to weigh on automotive manufacturers.

30-year treasury yield declines

Meanwhile, the 30-year treasury yield has slipped over the last few weeks. Generally, higher yields serve as an indicator of economic confidence (as opposed to the gold price).

The 30-year yield reached a high of 2.45% on March 19.

This week, the yield fell to 2.32% on Thursday, down from 2.35% the previous day.

The 10-year yield fell to 2.22% on Thursday, down from a March peak of 2.36%.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in March make reference to the March rise in yields.

“In the United States, the trend toward higher longer-term yields observed in recent months accelerated over the intermeeting period, and far-forward real rates based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose considerably,” the minutes indicated. “Market participants highlighted an improving economic outlook, bolstered by passage of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) and progress on vaccinations, as underlying the increase in yields.”

Sibanye-Stillwater announces strategic partnership with Johnson Matthey

Sibanye-Stillwater recently announced a strategic partnership with British sustainable technology company Johnson Matthey.

Through the partnership, the South African mining giant said it aims to “develop solutions to drive decarbonization.”

Furthermore, the parties will explore more efficient use of PGMs and other metals in battery technology.

“Johnson Matthey and Sibanye-Stillwater will collaborate on the sourcing and application of PGMs and metals used in battery technology to enable the development and commercialisation of low carbon technologies, with a focus on circularity and sustainability,” Sibanye-Stillwater said in its release. “In addition, the companies will examine potential opportunities to apply their collective experience to support the development of more sustainable supply chains for battery materials.”

Actual metals prices and trends

The US silver price dipped by 8.6% month over month to $24.41 per ounce as of April 1.

The US platinum bars price held flat, closing the month at $1,180 per ounce. Meanwhile, US palladium bars rose by 14.0% to $2,540 per ounce.

The Chinese gold price fell by 1.8% to $55.41 per gram. The US gold price fell by 1.6% to $1,709 per ounce.

The MetalMiner Best Practice Library offers a wealth of knowledge and tips to help buyers stay on top of metals markets and buying strategies.

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