Stainless MMI: Stainless Prices Stable Despite Q1 Market Improvements

Declining nickel prices saw the Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) drop from April to May. Overall, the index fell 3.34%.

Suppliers Report Better Q1 Performance

Domestic stainless suppliers reported improved market conditions in the first quarter. Both mills and service centers saw shipments increase as the barrage of tariff announcements spooked at least a few buyers back into the market.

Among mills, Outokumpu reported an 11% seasonal rise in its global stainless steel deliveries during the first quarter after admittedly coming off of a “very low level” at the end of the year. In the Americas alone, deliveries increased by 13% from Q4 2024. Meanwhile, Acerinox, the parent company of North American Stainless, noted, “The order book in the United States is solid.” This supported a 29% quarterly increase (11% higher year over year) in its melt shop production.

Leading service centers Ryerson and Reliance also enjoyed a boost. Although the rise appeared somewhat modest year over year, both witnessed an increase in stainless shipments. Ryerson saw shipments return back to around where they stood the previous year, as volumes rose by over 17% from Q4. Meanwhile, Reliance witnessed a more measured 12% increase.

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Mills Unable to Raise Prices amid Asian Price Pressures

Despite the apparent boost in demand, tariffs had relatively little impact on U.S. stainless prices. Asia remains the source of most U.S. stainless steel imports, and as tariffs already applied to those countries, the steel tariffs that took effect in March only had a meaningful impact on metal supplied elsewhere. 

Leading suppliers, including Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia have yet to witness a meaningful dropoff in imports into the U.S. As Asia remains the global price floor, those markets have continued to play a significant role in placing practical limits on domestic prices. 

As a result of import pressures, mills have thus far proven unable to meaningfully shift prices. Base discounts remain high, showing little fluctuation over the past year, as do discounts from mills. Instead, stainless prices have hinged on changes in raw material prices reflected in the surcharge. MetalMiner reports stainless mill discounts and global stainless prices in the Monthly Metal Outlook Report and Should-Cost Models on Insights.

Service Centers Experience Weak Pricing

For service centers, average selling prices during the first quarter remained weak. For example, Ryerson saw prices fall 2.7% from Q4 2024, while Reliance witnessed an even more dramatic 5.3% drop during the same period. With mill discounts largely trending stable throughout the year, the long-term decline of the surcharge has weighed heavily on stainless prices.

Nickel remains the most strongly correlated component of the 304 surcharge. The significant overall decline of nickel prices since May 2024 saw the NAS 304 surcharge fall to its lowest level since January 2021. Combined with high discounts from mills, this has proven good news for stainless buyers.

NAS Adds Tariffs to Surcharge

With their seemingly little control over the market, mills are exerting their power elsewhere. For instance, North American Stainless (NAS) added a new tariff component to its surcharge in May. Though the addition was unable to sway the overall direction of the 304 surcharge, which trended down during the month, it nonetheless mitigated the decline. 

Like the others, the tariff charge may fluctuate month over month. Numerous countries are currently engaged in negotiations with the U.S. concerning trade policy. While it will prove inconsequential to the tariff, the UK successfully negotiated a trade deal with the U.S., which could foreshadow what’s to come for others. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China made at least temporary progress, considerably lowering tariffs for at least 90 days. 

Biggest Moves for Stainless Steel and Nickel Prices

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• Chinese ferrochrome prices experienced the largest increase of the overall index, with a 14.63% rise to $1,334 per metric ton as of May 1.
• The Allegheny Ludlum surcharge for 316/316L coil saw a modest 2.44% increase to $1.44 per pound.
• Meanwhile, Indianian primary cash nickel prices slid by 3.97% to $15.86 per kilogram.
• Chinese primary cash prices fell by 4.97% to $17,140 per metric ton.
• Chinese ferromolybdenum prices dropped 5.82% to $28,294 per metric ton.