Articles in Category: Green

India represents one of the biggest automobile markets in the world, with about 3 million petrol and diesel vehicles having been sold last fiscal year.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

That pie is just too lucrative for the world to ignore.

The Players

It’s not only “regulars” such as Honda, Suzuki and Hyundai are planning launches and tie-ups for the Indian market; domestic players like Mahindra and Tata Motors are also around. With the Indian government having announced earlier that the country would move to an all-electric fleet of passenger vehicles by 2030, the timeline is more or less clear.

The most unlikeliest of the pack is Chinese smartphone brand Xiaomi. Indian media reports Xiaomi has “adopted an expansion roadmap revolving largely around plans to sell electric vehicles (EVs) in the country.”

While there was no immediate confirmation from the company itself, The Economic Times report pointed to a recent regulatory filing made with the Registrar of Companies that talked of Xiaomi potentially selling “all types of vehicles for transport, conveyance and other transport equipment, whether based on electricity or any other motive or mechanical power, including the components, spare parts.”

Next on this list is Swedish company Volvo. It announced plans to only sell hybrid, electric and battery-powered cars in India after 2019. Volvo is aiming to sell over 1 million electric vehicles worldwide by 2025, with India being a major target market.

Read more

Electric Takes to the Skies

by on
Style:
Category:
Environment, Green

We are used to the idea of electric cars, electric bikes, electric buses and electric trains. Most are in their early stages, but are economically viable with varying degrees of subsidy and the technology is developing rapidly to improve efficiency and further bring down costs.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

But electric planes?

Well, there has been plenty of media attention on single-person transports, essentially beefed-up drones with four corner fans capable of carrying one, possibly even two, people. However, both technologically and economically, they are some way from being a viable product, without even beginning to consider the approval and regulatory process.

But two factors are driving the development of electric passenger aircraft that is encouraging the investment of considerable sums of money and fast-tracking potential roll-out of a viable product.

Read more

The Renewables MMI dropped 2.5% for the month of December, ending at a value of 78.

Here’s What Happened

  • Since our recalibration of this index back in May 2017 to better take into account cobalt price fluctuations, the Renewables MMI has been slowly but surely gaining ground the latter half of 2017, hitting a high of 84 in September.
  • Within this basket of metals and materials used in the renewable energy industry, the Big Heavy is the U.S. steel plate price. Yet from November to December, that price point only dropped a single dollar per short ton.
  • The China steel plate price, however, did move much more – increasing 4.3% on the month.

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • The biggest news for the renewables industry has been the controversial tax plan put forth by legislators and still awaiting final House/Senate reconciliation – mainly, the fact that the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) has been kept intact in the latest version of the Senate bill.
  • As Sydney Lazarus wrote in MetalMiner last week, currently, “many companies have large multinational corporations finance wind or solar energy projects, and in return, give the latter the renewable energy credit that the government provides.” But the BEAT tax, which is meant to discourage multinationals from moving profits abroad — and which the Senate bill kept intact — would make the crucial solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC) “unusable for multinational banks and other corporations who have low tax rates,” according to this article.
  • It’s unclear if this move was intentional or not, but regardless, it injects huge uncertainty into the renewable energy industry as the bill hurtles toward law. (Some, such as American Wind Energy Association’s Peter L. Kelley, say it “could put an end to more than half of the country’s wind projects,” as reported by Lazarus.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • Keep an eye out on steel plate’s raw material inputs — iron ore prices increased over the past month, as we reported in our December Monthly Buying Outlook, while coal prices decreased. Although steel plate prices appear a bit sluggish at the moment, China’s demand is something worthy of paying attention.

Key Movers and Shakers: Exact Prices

Sign up or log in below to get exact pricing!

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

An article in the Financial Times this week reporting on recent research done by the Trancik Lab at MIT and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology last year suggests that the future for low-emissions vehicles might simply be smaller vehicles.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Both pieces of solid research support the fact that larger, electric-powered vehicles have a higher life cycle carbon footprint than smaller combustion engine autos.

Let us first define what the research is saying about life cycle emissions. To capture an electric car’s full environmental impact, the research says regulators need to embrace life cycle analysis that considers car production, including the sourcing of rare earth metals that are part of the battery, plus the electricity that powers it and the recycling of its components. The most crucial elements appear to be the source of the electricity used to charge the batteries and the size (and therefore quantity of lithium and cobalt) of the batteries.

Early early vehicles (EVs) were small vehicles with limited batteries and limited ranges, but Tesla changed all that with the model S. With the marker they laid down to the market, vehicle sizes and the range they can offer on a single charge have risen. As a result, so has the size of the batteries, to the point where a model S can weigh up to 2,250 kilograms, but a significant part of that is the massive battery that powers its impressive range.

Source: Financial Times

According to data from the Trancik Lab quoted by the Financial Times, a Tesla Model S P100D saloon driven in the U.S. Midwest produces 226 grams of carbon dioxide (or equivalent) per kilometer over its life cycle. That numbers comes in less than an equivalent large luxury internal combustion engine (ICE) saloon, but much more than a smaller ICE vehicle that may produce less than 200g/km over its life cycle.

Note the reference to the location, as part of the calculation takes account of the electricity-generating capacity — in a solar- or wind-rich environment like Spain or Nevada, it will have a lower carbon footprint than in a coal-rich area, like Poland.

And therein lies part of the problem for legislators, keen to drive our migration to a “zero emission” transport future.

Of course, that is a fiction — all power, even renewables, has a carbon footprint. Power sources, however, vary considerably. To guide both automotive policy and power generation, legislators need to start looking at this more holistically than simply just, in the case of cars, what comes out the tailpipe.

Source: Financial Times

Size for size, EV has some 50% lower life cycle emission signature than an equivalent size ICE. The MIT research acknowledges that fact, but the drive for ever longer ranges (required in only a tiny fraction of real life journeys) will reduce the benefit a switch to EV could deliver. The irony is that by the time legislators get around to working out how to incentivize and/or penalize better car choices, the market will be evolving to negate the benefits. The rise of sharing services will mean journeys will be completed less in our own vehicles and more in hired services, so that we do not make purchase choices based on range and where transport providers could coordinate vehicles for longer distances. Battery technology will also improve in the next decade, increasing power density per kilogram of lithium and potentially reducing, or even removing, the need to cobalt altogether.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

While legislators fumble forward trying to accommodate the fact they are encouraging poor buying choices and the development of technologies in the wrong direction, be prepared for the fact that we see about turns in EV incentives from the current “all EVs are good” to “some EVs are good —  but some are going to be taxed.”

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

Much like governments encouraged millions to switch to diesels, only for them to heavily penalize diesel cars less than 10 years later, we could see an equally ham-fisted about change on EV tax legislation down the road.

The Renewables MMI dropped a few points this month, falling from 83 for a November reading of 80.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

The sub-index dropped for the second consecutive month after hitting a 2017 high of 84 for the September reading.

Within the basket of metals, Japanese steel plate, Korean steel plate, U.S. steel plate and U.S. grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) coil all posted price drops. Chinese steel plate, however, posted a slight price increase.

Cobalt in Cobalt

As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) increases, so, too, will demand for that rare but vital metal: cobalt.

Most of the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo — political instability there this year has led to production slowdowns and skyrocketing prices, leading some batterymakers to recalibrate their battery formulas to make their batteries less dependent on cobalt.

Speaking of cobalt, one aptly named town is experiencing a boom related to the metal.

Bloomberg earlier this week reported on the town of Cobalt in Canada’s Ontario province.

Ironically, the town was built on another metal — silver — but a recent “cobalt rush,” in line with growing global demand for cobalt, has breathed new life into the small town, Bloomberg reported.

While the DRC produces a majority of the world’s cobalt, Canada sits at third in cobalt production behind China, contributing about 6% of global supply. As the Bloomberg report indicates, political instability in the DRC could lead to growing demand from other sources, like Canada, where the business climate is more predictable.

“This area’s seen more airborne surveys in the last year than in the last hundred,” said Gino Chitaroni, a local prospector and geologist, to Bloomberg. “Two years ago, if you had a cobalt property you couldn’t give it away. All of a sudden, within six months, everything changed.”

Cobalt, Ontario, is just one example of a town experiencing such a boom. As EVs become more and more prevalent, there’s no doubt others will follow in its footsteps.

The Kobe Steel Saga

Kobe Steel, Japan’s third-largest steelmaker, has been in the news in recent weeks because of the firm’s quality data falsification scandal.

Of relevance here, as reported by Reuters, is the fact that steel plate is included in the scope of the problems for Kobe.

According to Reuters on Oct. 19, Kobe Steel Executive Vice President Naoto Umehara said the company had found a new case of falsification of data at a unit that cuts and processes steel plate.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

Actual Metal Prices and Trends

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

An interesting article in The Telegraph this week explores the challenge facing the U.K.’s industrial sector in terms of power costs and the government’s competing priority of decarburizing the U.K.’s economy.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

The U.K. is not alone in this.

Much of Europe and the U.S. face a similar challenge of rising energy costs and concerns that industry is disadvantaged relative to competitors due to high energy costs and that retail consumers are being forced to pick up much of the bill for the government’s green agenda.

According to the article, British industry already pays well above the average for Europe, and Europe itself is a high-power-cost region relative to many other parts of the world.

Source: Telegraph

Only Denmark has higher industrial power costs than the U.K. Denmark generates much of its electricity from wind turbines, for which the technology is only just becoming economically viable, without subsidy and without costing in the backup generating capacity the variability of wind demands.

Decarburization and social policies, which includes subsidies for renewables but also programs to improve energy efficiency, add 20% to U.K. bills at present. But — and it’s a big “but” — they are rising fast.

Levies for such programs are estimated by Andrew Buckley, a director at the Major Energy Users Council (MEUC), to reach 40% by 2020, according to The Telegraph. Some major users, such as the steel industry, have been made a special case and the government has reluctantly granted an 85% rebate of green taxes for steelmakers. However, that makes the problem worse for firms that do not qualify; every subsidy for one is pressure to increase costs on another.

Some firms are moving off grid, investing in their own turbines, solar parks or micro gas plants, sometimes backed up by battery storage if based on renewables.

Rather than ease the problem for those left on the grid, it makes the situation worse. Funding a network with fewer consumers spreads the fixed costs over those that are left.

Of course, the U.K. is not alone in this, but policymakers create different policies in different countries depending on their priorities. Consumers, even in common markets like the EU, can therefore find themselves paying substantially more than their neighbours.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

For the top ten highest energy users, the annual energy bills stands at around £120 million ($155 million). If they are paying 20% or more than their neighbor, that could equate to a £24 million disadvantage before they produce a single ton of product.

No wonder energy is becoming such a hot topic despite low oil and coal prices.

If there’s one success story being written in India, it’s that of renewable energy.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

By the government’s own reckoning, despite India’s energy needs likely to double over the next seven years (going by the current rate of economic growth), the nation is likely to meet two-fifths of its electricity needs with renewable sources by 2030.

Power and Renewable Energy Minister R K Singh told reporters recently that the efficiency of solar panels itself had already reached 30%, and prices were likely to reduce due to an increase in usage.

The government’s stipulated target is of 175 Gigawatt (GW) of renewable generation by 2022, which includes 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind generation, up from the current total renewable energy generation capacity of about 59 GW (with wind already now at about 33 GW).

What’s more, a report this month by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said India’s renewable energy capacity would more than double by 2022, which would be enough to overtake renewable expansion in the European Union for the first time.

India’s present-day renewable energy installed capacity is about 59 GW. “By 2022, India’s renewable capacity will more than double. This growth is enough to overtake renewable expansion in the European Union for the first time,” IEA said in its latest renewables market analysis and forecast.

The IEA added that the solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind together represented 90% of India’s capacity growth, as auctions yielded some of the world’s lowest prices for both technologies.

India needs an investment of around U.S. $100 billion to meet the target of 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022.

As of now, China was the undisputed leader of renewable electricity capacity expansion over the forecast period, with over 360 GW of capacity coming online. China, as per the IEA, had already exceeded its 2020 solar PV target three years ahead of time and is set to achieve its onshore wind target in 2019.

China, India and the U.S. will account for two-thirds of global renewable expansion by 2022, according to the IEA report. The total solar PV capacity by then would exceed the combined total power capacities of India and Japan today, it added.

The power consumption of electric vehicles — including cars, two- and three-wheelers, and buses — was expected to double over the next five years. Renewable electricity is estimated to represent almost 30% of their consumption by 2022, up from 26% today.

This year’s renewable forecast was 12% higher than last year, mostly because of solar PV traction in China and India.

Zerophoto/Adobe Stock

Like “electricity for all,” the Indian government’s latest ambitious plan is for a complete transformation of its auto segment and move towards all electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Toward this goal, the government has started making the right moves, but the question on every one’s mind is simple: Is the plan possible?

The political will is there, but to have all vehicles on the road running on battery by 2030 seems like a pretty impossible dream.

Nitin Gadkari, India’s road transport minister, made the government’s intentions clear, rather forcefully, when he said recently, “We should move towards alternative fuel … I am going to do this, whether you like it or not.” He was addressing delegates of India’s automobile lobby group, SIAM. Gadkari made it clear he would “bulldoze the plan through.”

It’s really all about numbers, say the experts. After all, how does a country of over 1 billion people, where over 20 million vehicles are sold annually, embark on such an ambitious drive?

Read more

Pavel Losevsky/Adobe Stock

Standing in for Fouad Egbaria, here is your morning in metals, folks.

Aluminum Highlights

Feeling behind on aluminum industry activity and economic drivers? Look no further than the Aluminum Association’s latest comprehensive rundown, including import trends and key raw material inputs such as energy.

According to their highlights, the majority of aluminum imports into the U.S. are in ingot form. “After three consecutive months of declining volumes, ingot imports increased 1.8 percent month-over-month in July,” the report states, citing U.S. Census Bureau figures. “Nevertheless, imports of ingot increased 19.0 percent year-over-year in July, and are up 22.7 percent year-to-date over the same period in 2016. While the growth has occurred across the spectrum of ingot importing countries, the largest year-to-date increases have originated from South Africa, India, and Australia.”

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

EPA Clean Power Plan: Trump Takes Over Obama’s ‘Fuzzy Math’

President Trump made quick moves to ax the Clean Power Plan, whose benefits the previous administration said would dwarf its costs (of which, MetalMiner speculated, there would be many).

Now, Trump and his EPA chief, Scott Pruitt, are trying to massage the numbers behind those costs and benefits — and it may be a tough proposition to get things right.

Electric Cars All the Rage?

Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer at BHP, was quoted by Reuters as saying on Tuesday that 2017 will be a “tipping point” for electric cars, adding that “the impact for raw materials producers would be felt first in the metals markets and only later in oil,” according to the news service.

“In September 2016 we published a blog and we set the question – could 2017 be the year of the electric vehicle revolution?” Balhuizen said in an interview, Reuters reported.

Free Download: The September 2017 MMI Report

MetalMiner’s correspondent in India, Sohrab Darabshaw, will have an upcoming piece later this week about how that very revolution is shaping up in the world’s second-most populous country – stay tuned!

The Renewables MMI rose seven points in August, reaching a reading of 84.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

The basket of metals in this sub-index posted a strong month. Steel plate from Japan, Korea and China rose in the month. U.S. steel plate, however, fell 4.6%.

Meanwhile, in the topsy-turvy world of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), the U.S. GOES price jumped 7.3%.

Of the nine metals in the sub-index, only one (U.S. steel plate) posted a drop in price as of Sept. 1. Chinese silicon, cobalt and neodymium all also posted price gains.

Charged Up for Cobalt

Last month, we wrote about cobalt, which is in high demand for its application in electric vehicle batteries. Cobalt is mined predominantly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has been shaken by violence and political instability this year.

The instability there has seen production in the DRC decrease this year, yielding significant price increases in the metal. As we wrote last month, the instability of cobalt (not to mention growing ethical concerns vis-a-vis child labor at mines) has some battery makers looking to adjust their metal formulas, in some cases suggesting the use of more nickel, instead.

According to a Reuters report, however, cobalt has been boosted by projections touting a rise in purchases of electric vehicles. According to the report, UBS forecasted electric vehicles will account for 3.1% of global car sales in 2021 and 13.7% in 2025, up from 1% this year.

In addition, cobalt listings have skyrocketed, the report says. As of the end of July, 100 companies that explore or mine for cobalt were listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange, up from fewer than 30 in 2015, according to SNL Financial.

In short, despite issues of supply volatility — and, thus, material cost — cobalt’s profile continues to rise in tandem with the rise of electric vehicles.

What About U.S. Steel Plate?

Like the rest of the U.S. steel industry, steel plate producers are anxiously awaiting the Trump administration’s determination in its Section 232 investigation of steel imports.

The investigation, announced in April, has a January deadline. The investigation picked up steam earlier on in the summer, but has seemingly been put on the backburner for the time being. As such, initial optimism from U.S. steel producers regarding potentially imminent trade action stemming from the investigation began to wane.

In a letter to the Trump administration last week, the American Line Pipe Producers Association (ALPPA) urged the president to take action, also mentioning steel plate in the process.

“The ALPPA strongly supports the imposition of tariffs to address this crisis,” wrote Timothy Brightbill, counsel to the ALPPA. “With tariffs in place, we could quickly return to full capacity, adding hundreds of direct jobs in addition to upstream and downstream jobs as well.

“However, in order for tariffs to be effective for our industry, steel pipe must be included in any tariff covering steel coil and plate, as failure to do so would be devastating for domestic large diameter line pipe producers and workers.”

Actual Metal Prices and Trends

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |