A headline and opening paragraphs in an FT article this week suggest copper is set to re-test 2011 highs above $10,000 per ton as stocks flow out of LME warehouses. Following the outflow of 120,000 tons of metal since October, this week has seen requests for a further 67,000 tons to be withdrawn, which if [...]
A recent Reuters article reinforces the popular image of the London Metal Exchange (LME) as an old boys club. In spite of the LME’s pivotal role in setting metal prices around the world, the 130-year-old exchange is still privately owned, mostly by the large banks and brokerage houses that use it. At first blush, the [...]
Continued from Part One. So what happens with volatile currency risk? Like commodities, currencies can move in similar ways: they can rise, fall and remain flat. In addition, a scenario we haven’t addressed previously with commodities involves establishing strategies in markets whereby prices, at least in the short term, appear to randomly rise and fall. [...]
LME aluminum inventories have been skyrocketing in recent days, leading some to speculate that falling demand is creating a massive surplus. They may be right; even Andy Home, Reuters columnist and usually a good interpreter of the workings of the LME and related physical trading, wrote an article this week seeking to explore the possible [...]
MetalMiner welcomes guest commentator John E. Gross, president of Rhode Island-based J.E. Gross & Co., Inc, a metals management and consultancy firm. Gross also publishes The Copper Journal, once a print-based industry newsletter and now an online site featuring data-driven charting and analysis. The global copper market is no stranger to excessive bouts of volatility, [...]
Continued from Part One. On the face of it, we would expect the price of zinc to have only one place to go, but intriguingly, HSBC is predicting a higher price next year and rising prices through the middle of the decade. This is because at current prices, many suppliers are sitting at the marginal [...]
As with all base metals, zinc demand took a severe knock post-2008. Up until then, demand had exceeded supply, and as inventory levels plummeted the metal price rocketed, as the graph below from HSBC illustrates. Source: HSBC However, the peak was hit in 2007 and in a classic reverse of plummeting prices feeding through into [...]
We compared the relative positions of Alcoa and Rio Alcan in an earlier post, along with their respective readings of the future. Where Alcoa saw opportunities, Rio Alcan clearly saw if not problems, then at least lackluster growth. Much will depend, of course, on global aluminum production and price levels. Growth forecasts are bullish, particularly [...]
