Tariff Ticking Time Bomb: Trump Gives UK Until July 9th to Avoid Steel Shock
Trump tariffs are back once again putting U.S trade partners in a tough spot. President Donald Trump recently exempted the United Kingdom from his doubling of import tariffs on steel and aluminum into the United States, but only temporarily. While import tariffs from UK steelmakers remain at 25% for now, failure to reach an agreement between the two states on other trade issues by July 9 could see them rise to 50%. This would put the UK in line with the rest of the world.
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Trump Tariffs Clash with the EPD
Trump signed an executive order to double the tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 3. This move came after he announced plans to raise the duties on May 30 while giving a speech at US Steel’s Mon Valley-Irwin works in Pennsylvania. But like many of the Trump tariffs, this one came with amendments.
A presidential proclamation on June 3 noted that the UK would receive “different treatment” on imports of the metal due to the U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD, which would temporarily leave the rates at 25%.
“On or after July 9, 2025, the Secretary may adjust the applicable rates of duty and construct import quotas for steel and aluminum consistent with the terms of the EPD, or he may increase the applicable rates of duty to 50 percent if he determines that the United Kingdom has not complied with relevant aspects of the EPD,” the memo noted.
The two states signed the EPD on May 8, effectively axing any duties on UK products entering the United States.
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Eurofer Looks to the EC for Guidance
Sources have noted that offer prices are already falling due to the increase, and that producers are now competing on prices. Offer prices by mills in the Benelux region were €620 ($705) per metric tonne EXW on May 23 for June rolling and July delivery. That price represents an 8.26% average decline from the €660-670 ($750-760) reported in late April.
In response, European Steel Association Director General Axel Eggert called for action by the European Commission over the new tariffs.
“In light of the continuous worsening of the EU steel market outlook, we call on the European Commission to consider emergency trade actions to ensure the stability of the EU steel market, should EU-US negotiations fail and further uncertainty and economic disruptions materialize,” Eurofer quoted Eggert as saying in a June 5 release.
Meanwhile, apparent steel consumption in Europe is expected to decline in 2025 for the fourth consecutive year. The latest figures have consumption dropping by an additional 0.9%. Eggert stated that this goes against earlier forecasts of 2.2% growth.
“Recovery is not expected before 2026, and only if positive developments emerge in the global geoeconomic outlook,” he noted.
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