Old Chinese proverb: when a giant in a race with another falters, the other, without a doubt, wins.
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Actually, I made that up. Ignore it. Still, when China’s economy started showing signs of a meltdown, some in India “predicted,” in a knee jerk reaction, that it was a “welcome development” for neighbor India.
No need to reiterate here how the two nations, with the largest populations and the largest economic growth rates, were in competition with each other in almost every sector.
A few days later, after the fog cleared, warning bells were rung by analysts and ratings agencies that if China was to lose the race, it would be tough for India, too. Even a tiny spill, such as the one China’s stock market felt last week, was bad enough. There would really be no winners in the race.
China’s economic troubles could have a significant impact on India, particularly in sectors like IT and steel, according to India’s trade and industry body, The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham).
The adverse economic developments may have a directionally negative impact on the Indian metals industry as well as on sectors with an export focus, claimed another agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in a statement.
News reports, quoting metal analysts, claimed that while it was true that a drop in commodity prices linked to China’s slow demand was a positive for India, it was not really “good news” for a host of metal and iron ore producers such as Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, and upstream oil producers.
The fall in ore, steel and copper prices hit Indian manufacturers as hard as any other company in the world, so what’s there to cheer about?
A paper prepared by Assocham said that in today’s global economy, where India’s economy — like any other — is plugged into the rest of the world’s, the China downturn was bound to impact India. China, incidentally, was the number one merchandise trader in the world with over $4.16 trillion worth of trade, followed by the US with $3.9 trillion, as claimed by Assocham.
But the more pertinent point made by Assocham was that the kind of cost competitiveness which the Chinese companies provided to manufacturing semi-process industries — such as electronics, electrical and telecom equipment — would disappear from the global supply chain. This is without even mentioning the inability of India to fill any of those spaces vacated by the Chinese companies.
Another news report quoted Hitesh M. Avachat, Deputy Manager at CARE Ratings, as saying that China accounted for more than 30% of the overall consumption of metals globally. For Indian metal producers, the price collapse meant their landed price in India would go down further, thereby pressuring companies to reduce prices. Because of the likely Chinese dump of its surplus goods, India’s export demand may also fall, he added.
Jayant Acharya, Director, Commercial and Marketing, JSW Steel Ltd., quoted in the same report, said if prices kept falling, margins would get impacted.
The Indian arm of global credit rating agency Fitch said with soft demand in China, base metals prices had gone down in the range of 2-21% in the first six months of 2015. On a year-to-date basis, Chinese domestic hot-rolled coiled steel prices had declined by 21%, London Metal Exchange nickel prices by about 12%, LME copper metal prices by 9% and China alumina prices by about 10%. In the last month, alone, iron ore prices dropped by 20%, Shanghai steel prices by 16.4%, and zinc prices by 7%.
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The author, Sohrab Darabshaw, contributes an Indian perspective on industrial metals markets to MetalMiner.