Will EU Steel Hikes Spill Over into U.S. Prices?
According to MetalMiner’s sources, ArcelorMittal sought another increase in its hot rolled coil coffers on August 5. This is in addition to the increase the steel industry leader sought in the previous week. Reports indicate that the Luxembourg-headquartered company is now seeking up to €610 ($705) per metric ton EXW for Q4 delivery, up almost 3.4% from the €590 ($685) it was seeking in the previous week.
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Traders Doubt Buyers Will Accept Hikes
One industry trader did not believe that buyers would so readily accept the hikes, especially considering that offers in the week of July 21 were €530-540 ($615-625), themselves off by €10 per metric ton from late June. Meanwhile, downstream cold rolled coil currently carries an average premium of €100 ($115) per metric ton. “Right now, not yet,” the source noted.
Many agree that the restart of building activity towards the summer’s end, as well as the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which comes into effect from January 1, 2026, are likely to see buyers accepting the increase.
“EU mills are for sure pushing prices upwards due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM,” the trader said, referring to ongoing confusion regarding the rules of the new mechanism. “It will be important to get some clarity on that soon, to ensure imports can continue arriving in 2026.”
Offers and deals on imports have been heard at €490 ($565) per metric ton CFR European ports. But once again, it is the lack of clarity over CBAM rules that has made them less attractive. This comes as end users fear having to pay back charges in 2027 on steel acquired in the previous year.
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EU Steel Industry Makes Recommendations Pre-CBAM
Based on an initiative from France, the European Steel Association (Eurofer) is also calling for the European Commission to strengthen safeguard measures before January 2026. For starters, the steel industry group recommends cutting 40-50% of import quotas from all third countries.
The proposal, which Eurofer submitted on July 29, notes that “The ambition, stated in the Steel and Metals Action Plan, of a highly effective level of protection must be translated into a reinforced ambition compared to current safeguard measures.”
It went on to add that “It must create the conditions for the European steel industry to get back to sustainable utilization rates, close to the target rate of 85% identified by the Commission in its action plan.”
Back in March, the EC also introduced a several-point document titled “A European Steel and Metals Action Plan,” which stipulated the replacement of current steel safeguards by July 1, 2026, with the goal of protecting against global overcapacities in the sector.
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