Articles in Category: Commodities

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Before we head into the weekend, let’s look back at some of the top stories on MetalMiner this week.

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Free Download: The August 2017 MMI Report

The U.S. Department of Commerce. qingwa/Adobe Stock

Another Tuesday, another countervailing duty (CVD) determination from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

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Two weeks after the department issued affirmative determinations in the cases of Chinese aluminum foil and silicon from Australia, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the department issued a ruling on biodiesel earlier this week.

The department announced its determination Aug. 22. The CVD investigation targeted biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia.

Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced Argentina and Indonesia received countervailable subsidies of 50.29 to 64.17 percent and 41.06 to 68.28 percent, respectively.

“The U.S. values its relationships with Argentina and Indonesia, but even friendly nations must play by the rules,” Ross said in a department release. “The subsidization of goods by foreign governments is something that the Trump administration takes very seriously, and we will continue to evaluate and verify the accuracy of this preliminary determination.”

Biodiesel fuel is typically made from a diverse range of sources, including recycled cooking oil, animal fats and and soybean oil.

As in other CVD rulings, the Department of Commerce will instruct U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to collect cash deposits from importers of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia based on the aforementioned preliminary rates.

The petitioner in the investigation was the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) Fair Trade Coalition, which represents the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries, including producers, feedstock suppliers and fuel distributors in the U.S.

The NBB applauded the Department of Commerce’s preliminary determination.

“The Commerce Department has recognized what this industry has known all along—that foreign biodiesel producers have benefited from massive subsidies that have severely injured U.S. biodiesel producers,” said Doug Whitehead, chief operating officer of the National Biodiesel Board, in a release. “We’re grateful that the Commerce Department has taken preliminary steps that will allow our industry to compete on a level playing field.”

As with the announcements Aug. 8, the Department of Commerce continues to tout the uptick in countervailing and antidumping investigations this year compared with last year. According to the Aug. 22 release, the department has launched 56 CVD and antidumping investigations between Jan. 20 and Aug. 22 — a 27% increase from the previous year.

According to the release, 2016 imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia were valued at an estimated $1.2 billion and $268 million, respectively.

Free Download: The August 2017 MMI Report

Barring delays, the Department of Commerce is scheduled to announce its final determination in the investigation Nov. 7.

Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week that was.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

  • In case you missed it, our August MMI Report is out. Metals like copper and aluminum hit record highs, and nine of our 10 sub-indexes posted upward movement as a result of a strong July. Will that momentum continue? Check back next month for the September MMI report.
  • Many have predicted a decline for iron ore prices, but as our Stuart Burns wrote on Monday, reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. A weak U.S. dollar, combined with strong equities and global GDP, have helped keep iron ore performing well, not to mention Chinese steel and the wider metals market. Read through for Burns’ assessment of the iron ore market.
  • In India, a boom of bauxite production is expected, wrote our Sohrab Darabshaw. In fact, it is expected to more than double by 2021. How is that possible? One reason, Darabshaw writes, is “increased domestic demand for aluminium, which will largely be sourced from the quintupling of land under mining lease in the Odisha province (which has the bulk of India’s bauxite reserves).”
  • One commodity almost everyone is interested in is oil. On Tuesday, Burns wrote about the future of oil prices. But, since this is MetalMiner, after all, those prices also have an effect on metal markets.
  • Everyone loves a good M&A story, and Burns had one earlier this week on the ongoing talks between Indian steel giant Tata Steel and Germany’s ThyssenKrupp. Plus, he touches on ArcelorMittal’s takeover of Italy’s Ilva. Burns writes: “For the first time in years, steelmakers at least seem to have a plan and are actively pursuing it. Whether that plan is to the eventual benefit or detriment of consumers remains to be seen — but a healthier domestic steel industry must certainly be advantageous to all.”
  • How about zinc? Burns wrote about the metal’s rise to $3,000, and the reasons behind zinc’s price hitting its highest point since 2007.
  •  Last week was a busy one for the U.S. Department of Commerce, which handed down preliminary determinations in countervailing duty investigations for both Chinese aluminum and silicon coming from a trio of countries.
  • Back in India, steel exports are on the rise as the Indian government’s protectionist measures seem to be paying off for its domestic industry.
  • Lastly, representatives of the U.S., Canada and Mexico began talks on Wednesday regarding renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the trade deal instituted in 1994. The U.S. is focused on, among other things, bringing down ballooning trade deficits with the two countries (particularly Mexico). The talks are scheduled to continue until Sunday, so check back for updates on the proceedings.

Free Download: The August 2017 MMI Report

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This morning in metals news, China pressured iron ore traders not to buy from North Korea even before the newest round of U.N. sanctions were imposed, a Chilean copper company is preparing to invest in Mongolia and China produced a record amount of steel in July.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

China Puts Pressure on N. Korean Iron Ore Business

As the political situation on the Korean peninsula continues to intensify and President Donald Trump criticizes China for allegedly not doing enough to rein in North Korea, a Reuters report indicates China has taken some action against North Korean interests.

According to Reuters, China pressured its iron ore traders not to buy North Korea iron ore, pressure that even preceded the latest round of U.N. sanctions.

Per two traders Reuters spoke to, the Chinese government stopped issuing permits to bring in iron ore “several weeks ago.”

Codelco Looks to Make Investment in Mongolia

Chilean state miner Codelco is planing to make an investment in faraway Mongolia, Codelco’s chief executive told Reuters on Friday.

According to CEO Nelson Pizarro, the company is looking for medium-term investments in the country, which may have untapped copper deposits.

Chinese Steel Output Hits 74M Tons in July

Chinese steel producers had a prolific July, churning out  a record 74 millions tons, Reuters reported.

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The output bested the previous month’s then-record total of 73.23 million tons, reached in spite of government efforts to combat pollution.

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Before we dive into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week in metals news:

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

  • Our Stuart Burns started out the week with a piece on confirmation bias and how those in the media and metal-buying communities can sometimes let bias affect their interpretation of data.
  • What’s the diagnosis for the ailing U.K. steel industry? According to Burns, it’s a product of a lack of government support and global oversupply. A recent report showed that the U.K. steel industry has declined in monetary output value by 30% from 1990 to 2013.
  • In case you missed it, our July MMI report has long been in the books. You can download it here.
  • What did the recent G20 summit in Germany mean for India? Our Sohrab Darabshaw touched on the subject this week.
  • What’s up with oil prices? Unsurprisingly, as with the metal markets, prices are so low because there is just so much of the stuff out there. Burns dug deeper into oil price trends in a piece earlier this week.
  • What’s a Section 332? In short, it’s a fact-finding investigation by the United States International Trade Commission, which recently conducted a large-scale look into the competitive factors affecting the U.S. aluminum industry.
  • Another big story, the ongoing debate regarding a potential renegotiation of NAFTA, got an update this week when it was announced that the U.S., Canada and Mexico will come together for talks beginning Aug. 16.

Free Download: The July 2017 MMI Report

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Although oil and gas remain Iran’s most important exports by far, one beneficiary of the relaxation in trade embargoes has been the metals industry.

Participate in MetalMiner’s Budgeting Workshop on July 26 to help set your 2018 metals budget

According to an analysis by the Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade, reported in the Financial Tribune, the data show growth in the production of crude steel, finished steel products, iron ore, coal concentrate and sheet glass in the last Iranian financial year running March 2016 to March 2017 compared to the year before, showing a significant uptick in output (much of it for export).

Coal concentrate saw the greatest increase with the rise of 10.6%, from 1.113 million tons in March 2015-16 to 1.232 million tons last year. Crude steel output had the second-largest gain, rising from 16.538 million tons to over 18 million tons (a 9% increase).

Iran holds the world’s 10th-largest reserves of iron ore. Despite dominance by Australia and Brazil, Iran still managed a 4.2% increase to 31.711 million tons, helping lift production of steel products 1.4% to 17.681 million tons.

These sound like modest increases for a country recently facing lower barriers to trade, but that may be because the benefits have yet to percolate through to the wider economy.

In the meantime, it is direct exports that have benefited the most. The Financial Tribune reported Iran’s total mineral products shipments last year registered a 17% and 38% increase in value and volume, respectively, year-on-year.

Source: Trading Economics

From a value perspective, it is difficult to make a judgement year-on-year for total exports because some 82% by value is oil and gas, for which prices have been highly volatile.

Even so, with a depressed oil price, Iran’s exports are heading back above their historical long-term trend of some $20 trillion, as the above graph from Trading Economics shows. The oil-price-induced spike of 2006-10 was an anomaly not seen before or since.

Economically, Iran would benefit enormously from a full and unfettered return to the international markets, but that is not going to happen while the autocratic mullahs remain in control. Liberal parties are dissuaded from the political process and many opposition politicians remain in jail. As in so many authoritarian regimes, those in power live well while the clear majority fail to enjoy the standard of living they could achieve based on their high standards of education and young, dynamic population.

Free Download: The July 2017 MMI Report

Even so, the country’s economic situation is trending positively. Foreign firms are showing greater confidence in returning to the Iranian market after years of sanctions.

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Despite U.S. oil stocks falling 7.6 million barrels, the biggest drop since September, a recent Financial Times article reports, quoting U.S. Energy Information Administration data, that the oil price is struggling to get back to $48 per barrel, let alone the heady heights above $50 it achieved in May.

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U.S. refineries are running flat out to meet summer demand, drawing down on U.S. stocks — but still, the price is not responding.

Meanwhile U.S. exports are booming. Rather than being constrained by OPEC cuts, global production is rising. Ironically, even Saudi Arabia is pumping above its target, reporting to the cartel that last month it raised output to 10.7 millions barrels per day, a 190,000 b/d increase on the previous month and 12,000 b/d above its own target.

The Kingdom claims it needed to increase output to meet peak electricity-generating demand experienced during the summer months, but the Saudi increase contributed to total OPEC overproduction of 393,500 b/d from last month, according to the Financial Times.

Source: Financial Times

Iraq, Nigeria and Libya are all pumping more oil than at any time this year and Iran is close to its own year’s highest output, too.

In addition, Canadian oil sands production is rising, Production is predicted to be higher still next year as new projects come on-stream (despite the low prices), making many projects marginal or even loss-making, debts must be repaid and oil sands producers are hanging in there hoping for firmer prices.

News south of the border is not encouraging, though. U.S. tight or shale oil production has continued to rise this year, although at a more gradual rate than seen over the last 12 months. Nevertheless, shale oil producers have become adept at squeezing profits out of production, even at sub-$50 per barrel prices, and show no signs of backing off at current levels.

Long-position holders are hoping OPEC may take further action to curb supplies, but members are sticking to their mantra that they expect stocks to decrease and, therefore, prices to rise, as the current restrictions bite.

But as the Financial Times notes, OPEC’s own monthly report indicates the group still faces an uphill struggle to balance output under the terms of its supply deal, what with cheating and non-OPEC production.

Free Download: The July 2017 MMI Report

A balanced oil market seems a distant dream for producers.

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On Monday, our Irene Martinez Canorea wrote about copper prices, which have been on a bullish run. Today, Stuart Burns writes about investors’ copper positions. 

Reuters reported last week that the LME copper price reached a three-month high after a surprise rise in China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Investors jumped into copper after the official Chinese PMI rose for an 11th consecutive month, to 51.7 in June. Hedge funds and other investors increased long positions by 9,531 contracts to 58,816. Reuters reported that net long copper positions are now nearly double the 29,787 contracts reported back at the beginning of May and a dramatic reversal from the net short position of 47,109 contracts just a year ago.

The jump in the LME price was short-lived, dropping back as the dollar strengthened and LME data showed copper stocks gaining, but the Reuters report went on to question whether the current bullish run for copper is likely part of a longer-term recovery or a short-term case of overexuberance.

Although Chinese PMI numbers are not an exact measure of copper demand, they have been a good indicator over time. But after nearly 12 months of positive PMI numbers, many analysts are said to be expecting weaker readings in the second half of the year.

Chinese stimulus measures have boosted growth for longer than most had expected, but cracks are beginning to show in the housing market and Beijing’s tightening of credit is impacting small- to medium-size enterprises. The performance of those enterprises are not reflected in the official PMI figures, which are focused more on the large corporate sector.

Smaller businesses are measured by the Caixin PMI, which fell to its lowest level this year in June and is now hovering around the break-even point between contraction and expansion.

With the impact of stimulus measures beginning to decline and global stocks of copper remaining plentiful, it’s hard to see a case for copper’s continued strength in the second half of the year, despite the bullish bets indicated by the increasing long positions.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

If Reuters’ analysis is correct, we can probably expect an easing of copper prices, if not during the summer then into the fall.

So far, June is busting out all over, but not in the way metals producers would like.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Market observers may actually observe a possible change in trend (note: the current bull market, which began in May 2016, appears to have run out of steam).

First, the Fed hiked interest rates by 0.25% last Thursday. Though expected, it will most likely not impact markets in an abrupt way.

Let’s take a look at some of the key indicators:

Dollar Up

Source: TradingEconomics.com

The most recent Fed rate hike breathed a little life into the dollar, which has fallen for most of this year.

We believe this could have a direct impact on the metals industry — namely, causing prices to fall.

Read more

Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at a few of this week’s stories:

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

A Surprise in the U.K.

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Our Stuart Burns wrote about the U.K. parliamentary elections, which surprised many and saw Labour outperform expectations against Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party.

What does the election result mean for business? Well, that will partially be determined by which path to Brexit the U.K. ultimately takes. Burns writes there is likely to be compromise and a search for alternate solutions — that is, a softer Brexit.

The 411 on 232

White House spokesman Sean Spicer announced Monday the findings of the administration’s Section 232 investigation into steel imports could be released as early this week.

Although the findings have yet to be released, our Lisa Reisman laid out the potential outcomes and impacts of the investigation on Wednesday.

How will the recommendations affect steel prices domestically? No one knows for sure, of course, but Reisman wrote we shouldn’t jump to conclusions about potential price increases.

“Some have speculated that the forthcoming recommendations would force prices higher, however, we would not necessarily rush to that same conclusion,” Reisman wrote.

Markets showing pessimistic side

Burns also wrote this week about commodities markets — and not just metals, but oil, too — which have seen a drop in optimism of late.

What’s the downtrend all about? Many reasons, Burns argues, including: oversupply, the Chinese government “squeezing investors by increasing shadow banking borrowing costs,” and waning optimism with respect to the Trump administration delivering on campaign promises regarding massive infrastructure projects.

But not to send you into your weekend on a down note — it’s not all cloudy skies.

“With that said, that doesn’t mean the U.S. or global economies are about to tank,” Burns writes. “European growth has been much better this year and Japan is expected to improve further, while the World Bank is predicting an unchanged 2.7% global growth this year in its latest report.”

June MMI Report Released This Week

In case you missed it, our monthly MMI Report was released this week; as always, it’s jam-packed with information.

The report covers markets trends in our 10 sub-indexes: Automotive, Aluminum, Construction, Copper, Global Precious, GOES (grain-oriented electrical steel), Rare Earths, Raw Steel, Renewables and Stainless Steel.

Want to know what’s happening in any of these categories? Get yourself up to speed by checking out the June report, which you can access by visiting the link below.

Free Download: The June 2017 MMI Report