Category: Metal Prices

Rare Earths MMI: Global Market Projected to Hit $20 Billion by 2024

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The Rare Earths Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held flat for the month, posting a value of 18 for our January reading. 
Reflecting the lack of movement in the MMI value, the basket of metals posted modest price fluctuations.
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Chinese yttrium rose 1.9%, while terbium oxide dropped 0.8%. Neodymium oxide fell 1.3% on the month.

Australian Miner Receives State’s EPA Approval

A $900 million Australian miner received approval from the state’s Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), mining.com reported.
According to the report, Arafura Resources received approval on Friday after a two-year process. The EPA had been considering the environmental impacts of the Nolans rare earths project, the website reported, concluding that those risks at the site could be managed.
According to the report, Arafura estimates the project would create an investment of about $900 million in central Australia.

Global Market to Reach $20 Billion by 2024

The global rare earths market is projected to hit a value of $20 billion by 2024, according to a research report by Global Market Insights, Inc.
“Growing demand for magnets in automobiles, and energy generation will majorly contribute to the growth of global rare earth metals market over the forecast period,” the Globe Newswire release states. “The demand for rare earth magnets is majorly increasing by their consumption in electric and hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines. Increasing focus on utilizing clean and renewable energy is giving a substantial pressure on the electricity providers, to generate energy through renewable sources, which in turn will show a positive impact on the growth of this market.”
Not surprisingly given China’s overwhelming dominance of the rare earths markets, prices will continue to fluctuate somewhat wildly based on Chinese supply.
As for individual metals, neodymium will continue on in its place at or near the top of the rare-earths heap.
“By revenue, neodymium had the highest market share in 2016, with a market share of over 30%,” the release states. “It will dominate the global rare earth metals market till the end of projected period. Neodymium market will grow at a CAGR of 8.2% from 2017 to 2024.”
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GOES MMI: GOES M3 Prices Rise with Other Forms of Steel

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Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) prices do not often follow the pattern of price increases for other forms of steel. However, December’s data suggests otherwise. GOES prices increased along with HRC, CRC, plate and HDG. Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up In addition to prices moving in […]

Stainless Steel MMI: LME Nickel Price Approaches $13K/MT

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Stainless Steel MMI: LME Nickel Price Approaches $13K/MT

The Stainless Steel MMI (Monthly Metals Index) jumped six points this month, with a reading of 71. This reading ran higher than November’s (70), which then dropped to 65 for December before bouncing back for our January reading.
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Skyrocketing LME nickel prices drove the Stainless Steel MMI. However, 304 and 316 Allegheny Ludlum surcharges fell slightly this month.
LME Nickel Makes Big Jump
As reported previously by MetalMiner, nickel price volatility has increased over the past few months.
Nickel prices jumped from the $10,600/metric ton level in October to almost breaching MetalMiner’s current $13,000/mt ceiling.
[caption id="attachment_89668" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Trading volume remains strong, aligned with the recent popularity of nickel in the base metals complex. Besides stainless steel, nickel’s popularity has increased due to usage in batteries and electric cars. Q4 brought more activity for metals that have a direct impact on electric cars.
Nickel macro-indicators may support this latest rally.
The nickel deficit will continue this year. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) reported a wider nickel deficit again in 2017, now up to 9,700 tons. A nickel supply deficit may add support to the nickel bullish rally and could create additional upward movements this year.
Buying organizations may want to be aware of these movements to identify opportunities to buy on the dips.
Chinese Stainless Steel
As reported by the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), global stainless steel production increased by 7.4% during the first nine months of 2017. China drove the gains, with an increase in production of 8.8%. Stainless steel prices decreased around 7% in East Asian ports.
[caption id="attachment_89669" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
Chinese stainless steel coil prices increased slightly this month. Chinese prices remain higher than they were in Q2. However, there has not yet been a clear uptrend that signals prices may increase soon.
Domestic Stainless Steel Market
Despite the recovery in momentum of the Stainless MMI, NAS domestic stainless steel surcharges traded sideways this month. Despite trading flat, stainless steel surcharges remain well above last year’s lows (under $0.4/pound).
[caption id="attachment_89670" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Stainless steel momentum appears in recovery, similar to all the other forms of steel.
However, due to nickel’s high price volatility, buying organizations may want to follow the market closely for opportunities to buy on the dips.
To understand how to adapt buying strategies to your specific needs on a monthly basis, take a look at our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook or you can take a free trial now. 
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This Morning in Metals: China Issues Stricter Rules on New Capacity

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This morning in metals news, China has issued stricter rules on building new steel capacity, Chinese steel production is expected to slow down in 2018 and LME copper rises as the dollar loses ground. Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up New Rules to Put the Squeeze […]

Aluminum MMI: Prices Rise and Trading Volumes Have Strong Showing

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After last month’s drop, the Aluminum MMI (Monthly Metals Index) index increased by three points. The current Aluminum MMI index reads 98 points, 3.2% higher than the December reading. 
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In December, MetalMiner anticipated a rise in aluminum prices … and that is exactly what happened.
Aluminum prices increased by 10.6% in December, reaching a more than two-year high.
[caption id="attachment_89629" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Trading volumes appear strong and accompany the current uptrend. Moreover, aluminum’s latest peak has climbed over previous ones, signaling strength in its latest market rally. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger CRB index driven by higher oil prices, may continue to support aluminum prices.
Moreover, the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation should see a report released mid-January, which will also impact prices. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a new self-initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation on imports of Chinese common aluminum alloy sheet at the end of November. The U.S. has launched several anti-dumping campaigns for aluminum products this past year.
Crude Oil
As oil prices serve as a critical part of the CRB index, together with other base metals, buying organizations need to monitor oil price trends.
Moreover, there are some base metals, such as aluminum, that are strongly influenced by oil prices.
[caption id="attachment_89630" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Crude Oil prices. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading Economics[/caption]
Oil prices have increased again this month. Current oil prices remain above our bullish level signal, meaning that we could  expect some more upward movement for oil.
Similarly, increasing oil prices will continue to provide support to base metals prices.
Aluminum Scrap
Chinese aluminum scrap prices increased sharply this month and appear in a long-term uptrend since 2016.
The latest rally in both LME and SHFE aluminum prices also results in a jump in aluminum scrap prices. Chinese scrap prices increased by 4.9% this month.
[caption id="attachment_89631" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Aluminum prices jumped sharply again this month. After sharp price increases, base metal prices sometimes pull back to digest the previous gains. Aluminum prices may lack some price momentum this month, although that continues signaling bullishness for the light metal.
Therefore, adapting the “right” buying strategy becomes crucial to reduce risks by knowing when to buy.
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Copper MMI: Dr. Copper is Back on the Bulls

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Copper MMI: Dr. Copper is Back on the Bulls

The Copper MMI (Monthly Metals Index) jumped five points to 88, driven by skyrocketing LME copper prices. LME copper prices increased by 6.4% in December.
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LME copper prices are back again over the $7,000/metric ton level. Moreover, copper prices breached a previous peak, signaling strength in the rally. Trading volume also remains heavy, supporting the uptrend.
[caption id="attachment_89608" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fast Markets[/caption]
Despite skyrocketing in December, copper prices fell slightly during the first few days of January. However, that does not signal any weakness for the rally yet, as prices increased for the entire previous month. Therefore, copper prices may take a little breather this month to digest previous gains.
The U.S. Dollar
Copper and the U.S. dollar have a negative correlation. This means when the the U.S. dollar appears high, copper prices tend to trade lower.
Right now, we see just the opposite.
[caption id="attachment_89609" align="aligncenter" width="580"] The U.S. dollar. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading Economics[/caption]
Some analysts believed that the U.S. dollar had turned the corner and had started to recover. Despite the Fed rate hike in December, the U.S. dollar has continued to fall. The U.S. dollar has also seen heavy selling volume, which suggests more weakness.
Typically, the U.S. dollar trades lower when commodities and base metals trade higher. Copper (Dr. if you will) tells us much about commodities because the dollar has such a great influence on its price (direction).
Therefore, buying organizations will want to follow U.S. dollar price trends closely.
Copper Scrap vs. LME Copper
The price divergence between copper scrap and LME remains wider than historical spreads; though, this month, both moved in tandem.
Chinese copper scrap prices increased by 5.76% this month, compared to the 6.4% jump in LME prices.
Although these two don’t increase by the same amount, they tend to follow a similar trend. Data from both reflects a clear uptrend that appears sustainable, at least for the short term.
[caption id="attachment_89610" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
During December, buying organizations had opportunities to buy some volume. The relevance of the price jumps increases when the U.S. dollar shows weaknesses and all the base metals show strength.
Therefore, as copper prices remain bullish, buying organizations may want to “buy on the dips.”  For those who want to understand how to reduce risks, take a free trial now to MetalMiner Monthly Outlook.
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Construction MMI: Architecture Billings Index Hits 2017 High

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Construction MMI: Architecture Billings Index Hits 2017 High


The Construction Monthly Metals Index (MMI) lost a point for our January reading, falling to 94 from 95.
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In terms of metals prices, it was a mixed bag for this group. The Chinese rebar price fell 4.8%, while Chinese H-beam steel rose 3.1%. U.S. shredded scrap steel also dropped 3.5%. European commercial 1050 aluminum sheet posted gains of 1.1%, while Chinese aluminum bar fell 6.3%.

U.S. Construction Spending

According to U.S. Census Bureau data for November (the most recently available month), total construction spending amounted to $1,257 billion, up 0.8% from the revised October estimate of $1,247.1 billion.

The November spending figure was 2.4% above the November 2016 estimate of $1,227.0 billion. In addition, through the first 11 months of 2017, construction spending amounted to $1,138.3 billion, or 4.2% above the $1,091.9 billion for the same period in 2016.

Private construction spending in November was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $964.3 billion, or 1.0% above the revised October estimate of $955.1 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $530.8 billion in November, 1.0% above the revised October estimate of $525.3 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $433.5 billion in November, 0.9% above the revised October estimate of $429.7 billion.
Meanwhile, public construction spending, at $964.3 billion, was 1.3% above its October total.

Strong Growth for Architecture Firms

As tracked by the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), put out monthly by the American Institute of Architects, November proved to be a strong month for architecture billings.
Per the November ABI report, the billings ABI rose to 55 from last month’s 51.7 (a score of 50 indicates no growth).
“New project inquiries, as well as new design contracts coming into architecture firms, also signified healthy growth,” the report states. “As such, indicators broadly point to very solid business conditions at architecture firms as 2017 winds down.”
The uptick in design activity is in large part attributable to the strength of the economy, the monthly ABI report indicates: “GDP has grown at a 3 percent annualized rate through the second and third quarters this year. In the fourth quarter, our economy is likely to grow at about this same pace, and 2018 looks to see overall domestic economic gains in the 2.5 to 3.0 percent range. Strong consumer sentiment scores suggests that households are getting more comfortable with the direction of the economy as well as with their own financial situation.”
The report adds a strengthening labor market as another factor behind the rise in design activity. According to the report, there was a net gain of 228,000 payroll positions nationally in November, and annual 2017 numbers likely will hit at least a 2 million net gain for the sixth straight year. In terms of construction, specifically, there was a net gain of 24,000 construction positions in November, with 2017 gains “potentially as high as 200,000.”
By region, November was a strong month for the West, which led the four regions tracked in the ABI. The West region tallied a score of 54.8, ahead of the South and Northeast (each at 52.8) and the Midwest (50.4).
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This Morning in Metals: U.S. Raw Steel Closes 2017 with 1.63M NT Output

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This morning in metals news, U.S. raw steel production for the final week of 2017 hit 1.63 million net tons, some Indian steel companies are upset about a hike in iron ore prices and zinc hits a 10-year high. Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up Raw […]

What Will 2018 Hold? Possibly a Trade War, Political Turmoil and Much More

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What Will 2018 Hold? Possibly a Trade War, Political Turmoil and Much More

Everyone loves a forecast, a prediction, even a few ideas on what the future holds, and we become particularly obsessed with such ideas at the start of a new year. So, we thought it would be fun to review a few sources’ suggestions on what 2018 may hold, some as specific predictions like those in […]

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