The GOES MMI (Monthly Metals Index), which tracks, grain-oriented electrical steels, fell one point to 188 as other flat-rolled steel products saw a price increase.
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Meanwhile, imports continue to grow, but none of the growth has come from China. In fact, Japan and the U.K. supplied the bulk of the imports in January. Buying organizations continue to report to MetalMiner they import grades of electrical steel not currently produced by the sole domestic producer, AK Steel. (See the latest import data below.)
[caption id="attachment_90225" align="aligncenter" width="585"]
Source: International Trade Administration and MetalMiner Analysis[/caption]
AK posted a Q4 loss but CEO Roger Newport made a number of comments regarding electrical steels during the most recent earnings call that indicated why the company supports strong Section 232 import measures:
“As we previously stated, we strongly believe that the ongoing high level of imports is a threat to the national security of our country…
Imports of grain oriented electrical steels, also known as GOES have more than doubled year-over-year and these imports are coming primarily from Japan, Korea and China. In my opinion this surge of GOES imports stems from a deliberate effort on part of these and other countries to beat the clock on any future 232 remedies and also by the Chinese trade protection causing Korea and Japan to send products to the United States.”
Unlike other steel products, such as tubular goods, cold-rolled steel, hot-dipped galvanized steel, solar panels and washing machines, MetalMiner is not aware of a single circumvention case for grain-oriented electrical steels.
Meanwhile, Bank of American Merrill Lynch analyst Timna Tanners double downgraded AK Steel on weak first quarter guidance and “lack of catalysts” to improve margins.
In Other Producer News…
ThyssenKrupp and Tata Steel have finally announced a joint-venture in Europe with the goal of becoming “a leading European flat steel provider and position it as a quality and technology leader,” according to a ThyssenKrupp press release. Both ThyssenKrupp and Tata have GOES production capability.
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Exact GOES Coil Price This Month
Category: Metal Prices
Copper MMI: Copper Prices Cool After December Surge
The Copper MMI (Monthly Metals Index) traded lower this month, falling one point for a February reading of 87. The fall was driven by a slight retracement of copper prices, which had skyrocketed in December. In January, LME copper prices fell by 1.21%.
Despite the price retracement, LME copper prices held above the $7,000/mt level at the beginning of February, and fell below this level during the second week. Trading volumes still support the uptrend. Copper prices could continue their rally.
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[caption id="attachment_90192" align="aligncenter" width="585"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Labor Disputes Could Threaten Copper Supply
Mine strikes continually threaten copper supply. BHP’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine, failed to develop a new labor agreement in advance of formal negotiations, scheduled for June. Last year, a 43-day strike at the Escondida mine impacted copper supply.
Since BHP’s Escondida copper mine produces around 5% of the world’s copper, it’s easy to see the impact of strikes on LME copper prices.
Meanwhile, Glencore forecasts its own copper output to increase by 150,000 tons at its Katanga mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
U.S. Dollar, Copper Back to Negative Correlation
Copper and the U.S. dollar maintain a strong negative correlation. The negative correlation gives the direction of the trends; when the U.S. dollar is weaker (downtrend), copper prices are stronger (uptrend).
The negative correlation did not hold during the first six months of 2017, nor did it hold for commodities and the U.S. dollar. However, the historical negative correlation has reappeared, as copper prices and the U.S. dollar now trade in opposition to one another.
[caption id="attachment_90193" align="aligncenter" width="585"]
The U.S. dollar in black. Copper spot prices in purple. Source: MetalMiner analysis of StockCharts[/caption]
The U.S. dollar traded sideways during Q3 2017. Many analysts (not MetalMiner) started to believe the U.S. dollar had reached a bottom.
MetalMiner, however, remained more bearish on the U.S. dollar, as the dollar did not give any clear signs of a trend reversal. The distinction between a short-term trend that could impact prices in one to three months, versus a long-term trend, which could actually impact a buying strategy becomes important. The fact remains, the U.S. dollar has fallen to a more than three-year low.
Copper Scrap vs. LME Copper
In January, copper scrap prices did not move with the LME copper price. LME copper prices fell slightly, while copper scrap prices increased by 2%. Therefore, the spread between the two decreased slightly this month. We can expect these types of divergences in the short term, although the two tend to trade together over the longer term.
[caption id="attachment_90194" align="aligncenter" width="585"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
In January, several Chinese copper scrap restrictions went into effect. The Ministry of Environmental Protection announced that only end-users and copper scrap processors will be allowed to import. This restriction in effect removes Chinese traders from the copper scrap market.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
In January, buying organizations had some opportunities to buy some volume. The weak U.S. dollar and strength of other base metals support the bull narrative for copper. As long as copper prices remain bullish, buying organizations may want to “buy on the dips.” For those who want to understand how to reduce risks, take a free trial now to the MetalMiner Monthly Outlook.
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Actual Copper Prices and Trends
Renewables MMI: Steel Plate, Cobalt Prices Post Sharp Increases
[caption id="attachment_88708" align="alignleft" width="300"]
Chris Titze Imaging/Adobe Stock[/caption]
The Renewables MMI (Monthly Metals Index) skyrocketed this month, gaining 21 points en route to a 100 February reading.
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The basket of metals posted price increases across the board, particularly in the steel plate category.
Japanese steel plate jumped 2.8%, while Korean steel plate rose 2.4%. Chinese plate jumped slightly, by 0.3%, and U.S. plate was up 6.5% as of Feb. 1.
Prices of neodymium, silicon and cobalt from China all posted significant price increases over the past month.
Scarcity of Critical Minerals to Threaten Renewable Industry?
According to a report from Stanford University, a scarcity in rare minerals could undercut the move toward greener forms of energy.
The topic was put forth for discussion at a mineral resources conference hosted by the university last month.
“Due to the rapidly increasing need for mineral resources as Earth’s human population continues to grow exponentially and the need to minimize the environmental and social impacts of mining, it’s essential that Stanford be involved in the field of economic geology — the study of the formation, exploration, and utilization of mineral resources,” said Gordon Brown, a professor of geological sciences at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, as quoted in the report.
Uranium, copper, gold, lithium and rare earth elements (REEs) were among the materials cited in the report as critical to the future of renewable energy.
Among the trends impacting the supply of these valuable materials, according to the report, included: humanity’s increasingly growing rate of metal consumption, the concentration of rare elements in a relatively few countries, the quality (or lack thereof) of U.S. mineral mapping and reduction of mineral waste.
Cobalt Price Rises as Congo Seeks More Control of Market
Speaking of the concentration of minerals, the Democratic Republic of Congo is home to more than half of annual global cobalt production each year (in 2016, 66,000 of the 123,000 tons produced worldwide were sourced in the DRC, according to the U.S. Geological Survey).
Prices of cobalt are on the rise, shooting up a whopping 44.8% month over month.
With a number of international mining firms doing business in the DRC, the country’s largest state-owned mining company, Gecamines, is seeking to assert greater control of the market, Bloomberg reported.
“I find it scandalous that when cobalt is discussed, and the explosion of electric vehicles, only the traders and consumers are referenced and Congo and Gecamines are not cited,” Gecamines Chairman Albert Yuma was quoted as saying.
As reported by Reuters, Gecamines wants to renegotiate its contracts with foreign firms in order to work toward asserting further control of that cobalt market.
Cobalt is valuable for, among other uses, its application in electric vehicle batteries.
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Actual Metal Prices and Trends
Rare Earths MMI: U.S. National Energy Technology Lab Works on Rare Earth Element Recovery Projects
The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly Metals Index) hit 20 for our February meeting, up from 18 last month. 
Several of the heavier hitters in the basket of metals posted price increases this past month. Yttrium jumped 3.3%, while terbium oxide rose 12.4%.
Neodymium oxide surged 11.3% and dysprosium oxide rose 6.0%.
U.S. Lab Works to Increase Rare Earth Element Recovery
As we mention here every month, China has overwhelming control of the global rare earths market, meaning supply-side squeezes in the country often yield price spikes for the valuable materials used in things from electric vehicles to smartphones.
Unsurprisingly, the U.S. is looking for ways to increase its ability to recover rare earth elements (REEs) in domestic supplies of coal.
According to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), it is taking steps toward that goal.
“Four rare earth elements (REEs) recovery projects managed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) have made significant progress in the development of a domestic supply of REEs from coal and coal by-products by successfully producing REE concentrates,” a NETL release states.
The lab has run four test projects in different parts of the country. According to the release, the results of the projects are as follows:
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Physical Sciences, Inc. (pilot-scale project) achieved 40 percent REE concentration at 15 percent REE recovery using post-combustion fly ash from burning Central Appalachian Basin coal. Field implementation and testing of physical processing technology will occur in Kentucky, with subsequent chemical processing in Pennsylvania.
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The University of Kentucky (pilot-scale project) achieved greater than 80 percent REE concentration at greater than 75 percent REE recovery using Central Appalachian Basin and Illinois Basin coal preparation plant refuse. The project team plans to implement and test their technology at multiple field locations in Kentucky.
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The University of North Dakota (bench-scale project) achieved 2 percent REE concentration at 35 percent REE recovery using North Dakota lignite coal. The University will build and test the technology in their laboratory.
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West Virginia University (WVU) (bench-scale project) achieved 5 percent REE concentration at greater than 90 percent REE recovery using acid mine drainage solids from the Northern Appalachian and Central Appalachian Basins. WVU plans to build and test their unit in the WVU laboratory.
Of course, any new domestic capacity to recover REEs in the U.S. will be met with happiness by domestic end users, who have to pay a fortune for these rare and valuable materials.
Southeastern Alaska Town to be New Home of Rare Earths Plant
According to the a report in Mining News, the town of Ketchikan, Alaska, was chosen to be the new home of a rare earths processing facility.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. picked the southeastern Alaska town for a new planned strategic metals complex (SMC).
“Engineering and economic studies have confirmed that Ketchikan is our preferred location to construct our first strategic and critical metals separation facility” said Mike Schrider, Ucore’s vice president of operations and engineering, in a company release. “Additional engineering and product specification criteria are being initiated at this time targeting rare earth by-products and primary concentrates from non-Chinese sourced projects world-wide. The intent is also to maintain the processing flexibility and capacity to accommodate ore concentrate from the Bokan-Dotson Ridge Project, once that project has been developed.”
According to the release, among other factors, Ketchikan’s proximity to the container port and rail head at Prince Rupert was cited as part of the locale’s desirability for the new SMC.
“Ketchikan features deep water port, barge-container facilities and direct access to markets in the US and the Pacific Rim by way of ocean vessel, the lowest-cost mode of bulk transport,” the release states. “Ketchikan offers a unique work force, ice-free harbors and is in close proximity to Ucore’s flagship in-situ development project, the Bokan Dotson-Ridge Rare Earth Project (“Bokan”).
Actual Metal Prices and Trends
Aluminum MMI: Aluminum Demand Gets Boost from Automotive, Aerospace Sectors
After last month’s sharp increase, the February Aluminum MMI (Monthly Metals Index) inched up one point.
The basket of metals increased despite the slight retracement of LME aluminum prices.The current Aluminum MMI index reads 99 points, 1.0% higher than in January.
In January, MetalMiner anticipated a possible retracement in aluminum prices, as aluminum — and, generally, all base metals — increased sharply at the end of the month. LME aluminum prices fell by 2.8% in January from the previous 2-year high closing price in December.
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[caption id="attachment_90155" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Aluminum prices inched lower during the first few days of February. Aluminum prices broke out of their previous sideways trend back in August, providing a strong buying signal. As prices may continue to increase, buying organizations may want to understand how to better purchase aluminum, reducing both risks and costs.
U.S. Domestic Aluminum Market
The U.S. Department of Commerce sent the Section 232 report for aluminum products to President Trump in January. President Trump has 90 days (from January 22) to review and announce actions regarding the probe for aluminum products.
Meanwhile, domestic aluminum demand received a boost from stronger U.S. automotive and aerospace sectors.
Despite the fall in U.S. auto sales in January, aluminum producers see increased demand. Demand has increased so significantly that Novelis Inc., the biggest flat-rolled products maker, announced the investment of a new plant in Kentucky to support growing automotive demand.
[caption id="attachment_90156" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
U.S. Total Vehicle Sales. Source: TradingEconomics[/caption]
Chinese Aluminum Market
SHFE aluminum prices currently trade lower than LME prices. Although the trends appear to be similar, SHFE aluminum prices fell further in January. Lower SHFE prices relative to LME aluminum prices lead to increased Chinese exports to Asia.
[caption id="attachment_90157" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
According to the latest Chinese customs data, Chinese exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 12.8% in December compared to December 2016 data. December exports also increased on a monthly basis by 15.8% over November’s figures.
Aluminum Premiums
U.S. Midwest aluminum premiums moved again at the beginning of February, and currently trade at $0.12/pound. The Section 232 investigation and uncertainty around the outcome has increased the volatility in the U.S. Midwest premium.
Other aluminum delivery premiums also increased this month. The CIF Japanese spot premium increased 12% over January, to $98.50-$110/mt from the previous $90-96/mt. The European duty-unpaid premium jumped by 8.1%, while the Brazil CIF duty-unpaid premium increased by 3%.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
As expected after last month’s sharp increase, aluminum prices retraced in January. In bullish markets, buying organizations still have many opportunities to forward buy. Therefore, adapting the “right” buying strategy becomes crucial to reduce risks.
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Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends
Construction MMI: 2017 U.S. Construction Spending Rises 2.7%
The Construction MMI stood pat this past month, holding at 94 for our February reading.
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Within the basketball of metals, Chinese rebar dropped 6.6%, while Chinese H-beam steel rose 3.3%.
U.S. shredded scrap steel jumped 7.7%. European 1050 sheet aluminum dropped marginally (by 0.05%), while the Chinese aluminum bar price jumped 1.7%.
U.S. Construction Spending
According to the most recently available Census Bureau data, U.S. construction spending in December 2017 amounted to $1,253.3 billion, up 0.7% from the revised November estimate of $1,245.1 billion.
December 2017 spending was up 2.7% year over year, compared with the $1,221.6 billion spent in December 2016.
By value, the value of construction in 2017 was $1,230.6 billion, up 3.8% from $1,185.7 billion in 2016.
Private construction spending grew more than its public counterpart. Private construction spending jumped 0.8% from the previous month to $963.2 billion, Within that umbrella, residential and nonresidential spending jumped 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
The value of private construction in 2017 was $950.7 billion, up 5.8% from the $898.7 billion spent in 2016. Residential construction in 2017 was $515.9 billion, up 10.6% from the 2016 figure of $466.6 billion and nonresidential construction was $434.8 billion, up 0.6% from the $432.1 billion in 2016.
Meanwhile, public construction spending jumped 0.3% to $290 billion in December 2017 from the previous month. Educational construction spending jumped 1.6% from November, while highway construction picked up a 0.3% spending gain.
Meanwhile, public construction spending jumped 0.3% to $290 billion in December 2017 from the previous month. Educational construction spending jumped 1.6% from November, while highway construction picked up a 0.3% spending gain.
Home Sales Down in December but Up for the Year
According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales dropped in December but were up 1.1% for 2017.
The 5.51 million sales executed in 2017 marked the highest total since 2006 (6.48 million).
“Existing sales concluded the year on a softer note, but they were guided higher these last 12 months by a multi-year streak of exceptional job growth, which ignited buyer demand,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, in a prepared statement. “At the same time, market conditions were far from perfect. New listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country. These two factors ultimately muted what should have been a stronger sales pace.”
New housing starts, however, were down significantly in December.
According to jointly released data from the Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home starts in December dropped 8.2% compared with November totals. The 1,192,000 housing starts in December also marked a drop compared with December 2016, falling by 6.0%.
The Future of Construction
According to an article in Forbes, three trends could have a significant impact on the construction industry: robotics, drone imagery and digital project collaboration tools.
“Construction will benefit from robotics in work that is dangerous, is repetitive, and where heavy lifting is required,” Zak Podkaminer, of Construction Robotics, told Forbes. “[In] high precision work such as complex designs and patterns, robotics will provide a significant time savings allowing for more digital fabrication and provide architects more creative flexibility.”
Drone imagery, meanwhile, will serve to produce more accurate site analysis, the article argues, while digital collaboration tools will help streamline a construction process that still uses a number of traditional forms of communication and data storage — fax machines, physical binders, etc. — and make the transfer of information more seamless.
Actual Metal Prices and Trends
Week in Review: New-Look Diet Coke, Growth in India and Ford’s Future
Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look back at the week that was and some of the headlines here on MetalMiner: Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Our Stuart Burns talked about the new-look Diet Coke, which will not only come in a series of new […]
CRB-Dollar Correlation Returns as Base Metals Trade Higher
In January, some base metal prices increased sharply. This month, bullish sentiment in the industrial metals complex has extended to all base metals, as well as steel. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Commodities remain bullish, while the U.S. dollar continues to look more bearish. Back in Trends Commodities […]
Chinese Steel Prices Ease as Demand Softens in Winter Season
Normally when supply is constrained prices will rise, but China’s steel market is presently at the mercy of several dynamics. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook On the one hand, Beijing is constraining polluting industries like steel and coke production. Those same policy decisions, however, are hitting industries that […]
This Morning in Metals: Copper Rises as Dollar Falls
This morning in metals news: copper jumped as the dollar continued its slide; ArcelorMittal saw its core profits grow significantly in 2017, leading to a resumption in dividend payments; and the London Metal Exchange has a new chief operating officer. Copper Jumps Ahead of Fed Announcement Copper jumped 1% on Wednesday, according to reuters.com, ahead […]
