The 2017 calendar year saw copper heat up in a big way. According to MetalMiner IndX data, LME primary cash copper was $5,512/metric ton on Jan. 1, 2017. It closed the year at $7,215/mt, good for a meteoric rise of 30.9%. Need buying strategies for copper in 2018? MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook has what you need […]
Category: Non-ferrous Metals
This Morning in Metals: Chinese Aluminum Output Rises in December
This morning in metals news, China ramped up its aluminum output in December, British police are looking into allegations of pension fraud against steelworkers and India considers a plan to have its steel ministry oversee iron ore and coal operations. Want to see an Aluminum Price forecast? Take a free trial! British Police Look Into […]
This Morning in Metals: Rio Tinto Finds Copper at Grasberg for First Time Since 2014
This morning in metals news, Rio Tinto made a copper discovery at its Grasberg mine for the first time since 2014, automakers urge Trump not to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and copper hits a 3 1/2-week low. MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook provides 2018 buying strategies for carbon steel Rio Makes Copper […]
Week in Review: Section 232 Report Moves to Trump, MMIs and Oil
Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a quick look back at the week that was here on MetalMiner: Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook This week we wrapped up the latest round of posts for our January Monthly Metals Index (MMI) — check out this week’s posts […]
This Morning in Metals: U.S. Steel Imports Rise 15.5% in 2017
This morning in metals news, U.S. steel imports rose significantly in 2017, Shanghai nickel hits a 2-month high and the Peruvian government is considering a $2.4 billion railway project in light of rising copper output. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Steel Imports Up by 15.5%; 2017 Market Share […]
This Morning in Metals: China Issues Stricter Rules on New Capacity
This morning in metals news, China has issued stricter rules on building new steel capacity, Chinese steel production is expected to slow down in 2018 and LME copper rises as the dollar loses ground. New Rules to Put the Squeeze on New Capacity in China China has new, stricter rules on building new steel capacity, […]
Aluminum MMI: Prices Rise and Trading Volumes Have Strong Showing
After last month’s drop, the Aluminum MMI (Monthly Metals Index) index increased by three points. The current Aluminum MMI index reads 98 points, 3.2% higher than the December reading. 
Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up
In December, MetalMiner anticipated a rise in aluminum prices … and that is exactly what happened.
Aluminum prices increased by 10.6% in December, reaching a more than two-year high.
[caption id="attachment_89629" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Trading volumes appear strong and accompany the current uptrend. Moreover, aluminum’s latest peak has climbed over previous ones, signaling strength in its latest market rally. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger CRB index driven by higher oil prices, may continue to support aluminum prices.
Moreover, the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation should see a report released mid-January, which will also impact prices. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a new self-initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation on imports of Chinese common aluminum alloy sheet at the end of November. The U.S. has launched several anti-dumping campaigns for aluminum products this past year.
Crude Oil
As oil prices serve as a critical part of the CRB index, together with other base metals, buying organizations need to monitor oil price trends.
Moreover, there are some base metals, such as aluminum, that are strongly influenced by oil prices.
[caption id="attachment_89630" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Crude Oil prices. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading Economics[/caption]
Oil prices have increased again this month. Current oil prices remain above our bullish level signal, meaning that we could expect some more upward movement for oil.
Similarly, increasing oil prices will continue to provide support to base metals prices.
Aluminum Scrap
Chinese aluminum scrap prices increased sharply this month and appear in a long-term uptrend since 2016.
The latest rally in both LME and SHFE aluminum prices also results in a jump in aluminum scrap prices. Chinese scrap prices increased by 4.9% this month.
[caption id="attachment_89631" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Aluminum prices jumped sharply again this month. After sharp price increases, base metal prices sometimes pull back to digest the previous gains. Aluminum prices may lack some price momentum this month, although that continues signaling bullishness for the light metal.
Therefore, adapting the “right” buying strategy becomes crucial to reduce risks by knowing when to buy.
Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook
Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends
Copper MMI: Dr. Copper is Back on the Bulls
The Copper MMI (Monthly Metals Index) jumped five points to 88, driven by skyrocketing LME copper prices. LME copper prices increased by 6.4% in December.
Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up
LME copper prices are back again over the $7,000/metric ton level. Moreover, copper prices breached a previous peak, signaling strength in the rally. Trading volume also remains heavy, supporting the uptrend.
[caption id="attachment_89608" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fast Markets[/caption]
Despite skyrocketing in December, copper prices fell slightly during the first few days of January. However, that does not signal any weakness for the rally yet, as prices increased for the entire previous month. Therefore, copper prices may take a little breather this month to digest previous gains.
The U.S. Dollar
Copper and the U.S. dollar have a negative correlation. This means when the the U.S. dollar appears high, copper prices tend to trade lower.
Right now, we see just the opposite.
[caption id="attachment_89609" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
The U.S. dollar. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Trading Economics[/caption]
Some analysts believed that the U.S. dollar had turned the corner and had started to recover. Despite the Fed rate hike in December, the U.S. dollar has continued to fall. The U.S. dollar has also seen heavy selling volume, which suggests more weakness.
Typically, the U.S. dollar trades lower when commodities and base metals trade higher. Copper (Dr. if you will) tells us much about commodities because the dollar has such a great influence on its price (direction).
Therefore, buying organizations will want to follow U.S. dollar price trends closely.
Copper Scrap vs. LME Copper
The price divergence between copper scrap and LME remains wider than historical spreads; though, this month, both moved in tandem.
Chinese copper scrap prices increased by 5.76% this month, compared to the 6.4% jump in LME prices.
Although these two don’t increase by the same amount, they tend to follow a similar trend. Data from both reflects a clear uptrend that appears sustainable, at least for the short term.
[caption id="attachment_89610" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
During December, buying organizations had opportunities to buy some volume. The relevance of the price jumps increases when the U.S. dollar shows weaknesses and all the base metals show strength.
Therefore, as copper prices remain bullish, buying organizations may want to “buy on the dips.” For those who want to understand how to reduce risks, take a free trial now to MetalMiner Monthly Outlook.
Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook
Actual Copper Prices and Trends
Podcast Ep. 4: What the USS Gabrielle Giffords Means to the Aluminum Industry
Now that the New Year has begun, we’re getting ever closer (hopefully) to the Commerce Department’s final recommendations on the Section 232 investigation. Today we continue our podcast series that we’re calling “Manufacturing Trade Policy Confidential,” in which we turn our focus to the aluminum industry. Our guest is Heidi Brock, the president and CEO […]
Chinese Capacity Cuts Help Push Copper to Highest Point in Nearly Four Years
Copper is on a tear. Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up Copper rose to its highest point in nearly four years last week following further curbs on domestic production in China, closing at new year-to-date high for 2017. LME and Comex copper continued its longest bull […]
