Steel

President Obama just signed two significant trade initiatives – Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), and the extension of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, which includes renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and trade remedy improvements. For the full story on how both got passed check out our recap of the last week in steel.

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TPA or “fast track” will ensure an up or down vote on future trade pacts, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, before the Senate can add amendments to them. TAA is a bill that will fund retraining programs and other support initiatives for workers displaced by future trade pacts. TAA also will improve enforcement of dumping actions against foreign manufacturers.

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Free trade gained some steam today as President Obama signed Trade Promotion Authority and Trade Adjustment Assistance.

The steel industry applauded today’s action, particularly enactment of the trade remedy measures for which the industry strongly advocated:

“Today’s bill signing is the culmination of dedication and hard work by many members of the steel industry, partner industries and numerous steel champions in the House and Senate who worked tirelessly to ensure the trade remedy provisions were included in the trade package,” Said Thomas Gibson, CEO and president of the American Iron and Steel Institute. “We thank the Administration for recognizing the critical role of the steel industry by supporting these initiatives to improve the effectiveness of our anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws.”

Gibson said the steel industry “greatly appreciate having these improved tools at our disposal in our continuing efforts to combat unfair trade, given the trade laws have not been updated by Congress in over 20 years. The surge in foreign steel imports continues at record high levels, leaving us with a great deal more work to do to mitigate the job loss and negative impact on our industry. We urge quick action by Congress to adopt the Senate version of the ENFORCE Act during the House-Senate conference on the customs bill, which will better enable companies and workers to combat the evasion of anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders. We hope to soon see the president signing that bill also,” Gibson concluded.

ENFORCE stands for Enforcing Orders and Reducing Customs Evasion. The tougher customs enforcement bill must still go through a House-Senate conference committee.

“I would not be signing these bills if I was not absolutely convinced that these pieces of legislation are ultimately good for American workers,” President Obama said at the ceremony.

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The US Steel industry has long said that a wave of cheap and illegally subsidized imports is crushing its ability to compete.

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While not turning a blind eye to the situation, Washington has not been as responsive to the situation as many in the domestic steel industry would like. The lobbying efforts of domestic steel have largely fallen on deaf ears when it comes to enforcing existing trade laws and placing tariffs that would be punitive enough to stop foreign nations such as China from overproducing.

Yet, today, a key bill supporting tougher anti-dumping enforcement has passed the House, has a path to passing the Senate and even more customs protections could be passed as early as next week. All from a Congress known more for not passing legislation than passing it. How did this happen? First, let’s see how we got here.

WTO Claims Chinese Imports Aren’t Subsidized

Some relatively modest tariffs were revoked a year ago when the World Trade Organization said the US broke the rules for imposing duties on Chinese steel products, solar panels and other goods.

The WTO’s judges said that under the 1964 Marrakesh accords (which also set up the WTO) countervailing duties can only be levied when there is clear evidence that state-owned or partially state-owned enterprises passing on the subsidies are “public bodies.”

The panel found that Washington had produced insufficient evidence to prove subsidization, and was also at fault in its calculations of the value of the subsidies to Chinese firms. This was a very novel reading for the WTO as there is…

Actual Proof That Chinese Steel is Subsidized

Last year, and now, evidence exists that Chinese steel is subsidized on the state and national level and exports are sold below cost.

This history of ignoring evidence is why we didn’t expect big things for steel this week. Maybe more ambiguous language about actually enforcing existing law as a sweetener in the Trade Promotion Authority bill that both the president the republican congress support, but nothing more.

How, then, did steel become the big winner?

TPA Goes Down in Flames

When democrats in the House refused to approve TPA it looked like the bill, that would ensure an up or down vote for future trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, wouldn’t move forward.

When TPA was separated from a worker aid package for those displaced by future trade deals known as Trade Adjustment Assistance, we still didn’t think it would result in help for domestic steel, yet competing interests that put free-trade Republicans and the Obama administration on one side and more liberal democrats on the other worked in the industry’s favor.

Long Live TPA

TPA, once separated from TAA, passed the House and then the Senate. It still looked like more trade deals and no help for steel or US manufacturing. But with TAA still stuck in the House, guess what the perfect sweetener to get democrats on board become? Support for the US steel industry. The Congressional Steel Caucus is a bipartisan group that spans several key states. Senators and congressmen and women from the midwest, south and southwest coalesced around their support for local steel.

TAA Passes With Stronger Steel Support

Not only did the House leadership promise new safeguards for the steel industry as part of the revamped TAA bill that passed yesterday, but a customs enforcement bill that would force US Customs and Border Protection to enforce anti-dumping laws as written also passed both houses earlier in the week. It awaits a conference committee negotiation, one that the American Iron and Steel Institute favors the Senate version of the bill in. Everything’s suddenly coming up steel.

TPA passed both houses by midweek and TAA passed the Senate and, after being sweetened with support for the steel industry, the House yesterday. Even more customs enforcement protections are still waiting in the conference committee.

“We commend the House for passing legislation today that will improve the effectiveness of our anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws to combat unfairly traded imports,” said Thomas Gibson, president and CEO of the AISI. “These modifications to the trade laws come at a critical time for the steel industry, as we are currently faced with a surge in steel imports that are causing injury to the domestic industry, including significant reductions in domestic steel production and job losses. We look forward to President Obama quickly signing this bill into law.”

It’s about time.

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The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Senate Republicans are offering a new incentive to support legislation giving the president expanded trade-negotiating power: help for the beleaguered US steel industry.

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As we reported last week, a companion measure to the Trade Promotion Authority bill has passed both the House and Senate and it would strengthen the enforcement of countervailing and anti-dumping duties by US Customs and Border Protection.

New Aid Package

The bills must go to a conference committee now to reconcile their differences, chief of which is that the House version does not have the robust trade remedies that the Senate version features, so the customs bill will not be voted on in the near future. Instead, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R. Ky.) is instead offering new language broadening the ways steel companies could win trade complaints. The customs enforcement provision will still likely find its way to the President’s desk, but not until much later.

Packaging Aid With Easier Trade Complaints

The legislative strategy, though, is complex. A number of Senate Democrats would have to cast a procedural vote today on a bill to give Obama and the next president fast-track trade promotion authority. After the fast-track bill passes the Senate, the chamber would then vote on a bill that would renew an expiring program to aid workers who suffer from production shifts overseas or import competition. McConnell’s new addition is that looser rules for making trade complaints for steel companies would be paired with the worker-aid bill. This bill is known as trade adjustment assistance (TAA).

Packaging the bills together is designed to keep the votes of republican senators, who have favored TAA and TPA since the Bush Administration championed them in 2003, even though they generally would not vote for continuing a large government worker aid package. McConnell is attempting to simultaneously bring in the votes of 11 democrat senators who favor the aid package for displaced workers, but have been skeptical of TPA and TAA, and free trade in general, so far.

The TAA vote is scheduled for today. If both TAA and the customs bill eventually pass, the US steel industry would likely enjoy protections not seen since 2003 when tariffs of 30% on most foreign steel imports lapsed.

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Steel production fell worldwide last month as Russia’s top oil producer, Rosneft, expanded exploration to Venezuela and ArcelorMittal USA has lost nearly $300 million since it was created via a merger in 2006.

WSA: Steel Production Fell Last Month

Global crude steel production fell 2.1% in May from the same month a year ago, as output declined in most major producer regions including China, figures from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) showed on Monday.

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Global crude steel output fell to 139 million metric tons in the month while output in China, which produces half the world’s steel, fell 1.7% to 70 million mt.

Russia’s Rosneft Signs Exploration Deal With Venezuela

Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA said this week it has signed investment agreements with top Russian oil producer Rosneft, including a plan to create a joint venture to produce natural gas in the South American country.The venture would include the fields of Mejillones, Patao and Rio Caribe – all part of the large offshore Mariscal Sucre gas project.

ArcelorMittal USA Lost $1.5 Billion

ArcelorMittal – forged through an international merger of steel companies in 2006 – has pumped a huge amount of money into its US operations, but hasn’t seen a profit from it, ArcelorMital USA Flat Carbon President and CEO Andrew Harshaw told the Times of Northwest Indiana.

“Our USA business is not getting a return on its investment,” he wrote in a blog post. “Since 2010, the company has invested an average $1.5 billion per year into our USA facilities in both capital investment and the long-term maintenance of our assets. During those same five years, our USA business lost nearly $1.5 billion dollars, an average loss of $293.8 million per year.”

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At the Metalminer Week-In-Review, we promise to report accurate prices every day through our Indx. But what if that’s not enough? What about the add-ons, over-and-aboves and shipping charges? Buying steel? We’ve got bar fuel surcharges for eight US regions. Eight!

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We’ve been covering that pesky Midwest aluminum premium like Richard Sherman on a wideout, too. Want to know about anti-dumping and countervailing duties. You’ve come to the right place! All of these non-price inputs made our homepage this week as the gulf between the price and what you actually pay reared its head again this week.

Who Polices the Midwest Premium?

With falling London Metal Exchange aluminum prices and much-reduced physical delivery premiums even the combined, all-in price of aluminum is below cost for many smelters these days.

Pile of aluminium bricks waiting for transport to the factory

I’m aluminum, get me out of this warehouse!

That’s enough reason for smelters such as Alcoa, Inc., to question the involvement of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in discussions with the LME on how best to reform their warehouse network and cut down the one-year-plus wait to get ingots out of the operations in Detroit (Metro International) and Vlissingen, Netherlands (Pacorini).

Higher premiums benefit producers such as Alcoa and UC Rusal, after all. Is it any wonder that producers want the CFTC to butt out? Yet, the CFTC still wants to butt in.

Don’t Let Your Profitability Drown in the VAT!

Meanwhile, over in China, rampant speculation is going on over how Beijing will replace its current business tax system with a new system of value-added taxes. A VAT taxes the difference between the sale price charged to a customer, minus the cost of materials and other taxable inputs.

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Better pay the VAT or this is going to be a short trip!

The best estimates we have seen show that the new VAT will considerably increase what US buyers pay for metals from China and likely from nearby markets trying to compete with Chinese steel. China’s VAT is just one of many ways that imports could become more expensive later this year as…

Tariffs On Foreign Steel Could Increase This Fall

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At least export me for as much as it cost to produce me. I feel I deserve at least that much.

We already know some Chinese producers are exporting steel and other metals at below their production cost. So, the anti-dumping action against coated/anti-corrosion steel filed by six US producers last week against China and four other nations has a really good chance of turning into anti-dumping duties this Fall when the Commerce Department makes a ruling on the petition.

We’d say it’s kind of a slam dunk, but even slam dunks can be hilariously missed. The tariffs the US producers are asking for are in a range that would significantly increase the overall cost of steel from the five nations.

That was the wild week in non-prices. Next week we hope to write more about, you know, actual prices.

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Using robots that can “draw” steel structures in 3D, Dutch technology firm MX3D is planning to 3D “print” a steel bridge over one of Amsterdam’s famous canals in the center of the Dutch Capital. MX3D researches and develops robotic 3D printing delivery technology as well as projects such as the pedestrian bridge. The robots creating the will actually be large welder robots usually seen in factories rather than construction sites.

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The project is a collaboration between MX3D, design software company Autodesk, construction company Heijmans and many others. Designing and “printing” the intricate, ornate metal bridge is a test for the robots, software engineers, craftsmen and designers working on it, including designer Joris Laarman Lab.

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The planned steel pedestrian bridge in Amsterdam will be built by robot “welders” who 3D print the bridge from each side and meet in the middle. Image courtesy of Joris Laarman for MX3D.

“I strongly believe in the future of digital production and local production, in ‘the new craft,'” said Joris Laarman, principal of the Joris Laarman Lab. “This bridge will show how 3D printing finally enters the world of large-scale, functional objects and sustainable materials while allowing unprecedented freedom of form. The symbolism of the bridge is a beautiful metaphor to connect the technology of the future with the old city, in a way that brings out the best of both worlds.”

Bridge Welding Robots

MX3D will equip its multi-axis industrial robots with 3D printing hardware that can print metals, plastics and combinations of materials in virtually any form. The system is controlled by software developed by MX3D with support of new-generation tools from Autodesk, such as Autodesk Dynamo, an open-source design tool that can create algorithms to automate the creation of plans for complex geometric form such as those used in the Amsterdam bridge.

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Utilizing a process known as digital digital laser sintering, Amsterdam’s new pedestrian bridge will actually be welded in place in the field by large robots and not printed in a factory. Image courtesy of MX3D.

From large construction to small parts, the manufacturing techniques MX3D uses enables printing of strong, complex structures made of durable material, in this case ornate steel. It is more cost-effective and scalable than other 3D printing methods for projects such as the pedestrian bridge.

Construction Potential

“What distinguishes our technology from traditional 3D printing methods is that we work according to the ‘Printing Outside the box’ principle,” said Tim Geurtjens, CTO of MX3D. “By printing with 6-axis industrial robots, we are no longer limited to a square box in which everything happens. Printing a functional, life-size bridge is of course the ideal way to showcase the endless possibilities of this technique.”

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MX3D welder/sinterer/printer robot. Image courtesy of MX3D/Adriaan de Groot.

The project achieves one long-term goal of 3D printing supporters in that it delivers a project outside of the traditional confines of the technology, small parts created in a small printer in a manufacturing environment. This means possible on-site use by construction companies and more accurate quantities of welding/sintering material for metals buyers.

Of course, many more projects such as this one would be needed to prove the technology can work with modern construction methods.

“The MX3D platform is a potential game changer,” said Maurice Conti, Director Strategic Innovation at Autodesk. “Breaking free of the traditional limitations of additive manufacturing — small size prints and poor material performance — this technology opens up possibilities for architectural-scale, relatively low-cost, metal structures that are as complex as the designer’s imagination.”

Which Amsterdam canal the bridge will be built to span has not yet been announced but a visitor center accompanying the project is planned to open in September and construction and “printing” is expected to begin around the same time.

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Indian steel, aluminum and copper companies are pinning their hopes on India’s defense sector to help increase sales.

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The government’s “Make in India” campaign, a broad sweep enveloping the entire manufacturing sector, and, as a result, the metals and mining sectors, is expected to boost local raw materials used in defense applications.

The government raised the threshold for foreign direct investment in defense to 49% and has done away with licensing requirements for most items. Several Indian companies such as Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and others have started identifying areas of defense production their products fit in. They have also started scouting around for foreign partnerships and technology transfers.

International Joint-Venture Partners

One such international player that has in the past shown active interest in this sector is Germany’s ThyssenKrupp AG. The company is reportedly pursuing two interests in the defense field – naval weapons, specifically submarines, and aerospace.

In a recent interview with the Business Standard, Michael Thiemann, CEO of the company’s India region revealed that ThyssenKrupp India Pvt. Ltd was looking to expand its business in not only these segments but was also interested in investing in “smart” cities.

Thiemann said his company was already in discussion with public sector and private shipyards on the submarine front. The CEO let on that his company was open to tying up with private Indian companies such as Larsen and Toubro Ltd. for defense projects.

Project 75

“Project 75,” a plan for the construction of six submarines for the Indian Navy has been in the pipeline for several years now, but with the Make In India campaign it has caught a second wind.

Going by media reports here, the Indian government is likely to shortlist shipyards for the project in about two months. Thiemann said Thyssenkrupp has the technology and expertise and is willing to collaborate with Indian companies, by offering design, engineering and implementation know how.

Thyssenkrupp’s Edge

ThyssenKrupp already makes mining equipment and cement in India. But specifically, where the defense sector is concerned, ThyssenKrupp, say analysts, may have an edge because one of its group companies, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has been a partnering with the Indian Navy for more than two decades. Some of the Indian Navy’s previous submarines were made in India under a technology-transfer agreement in which TKMS was involved.

ThyssenKrupp has already invested in a service center at Bengaluru in South India for material processing of aluminum and titanium used in the manufacture of aircraft. The current revenue size of India’s aerospace business is nothing to write home about, but it is expected to grow because of the decisions made by the government.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its producer price index (PPI) for May. An analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America showed that steel mill product prices were down 2% for the month and 11% over the previous year.

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AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson wrote that goods such as steel and concrete constitute 60% of the index (including 7% for energy); services, 40% (trade services, 25%; transportation and warehousing services, 4%; other services, 10%). The overall PPI for inputs to construction increased 0.6% from April to May. The index for energy soared 12% for the month, outweighing declines of 0.2% in the index for goods less food and energy and 0.1% in the services PPI.

The PPI for all goods used in construction declined 3% over the last 12 months. Materials important to construction that had notable one- or 12-month price changes include diesel, up 11% for the month but still down 36% over 12 months. The aforementioned steel mill products fell -2% and -11%, respectively. Steel pipe and tube were down -1.9% for the month and -9.2% for the year. Copper and brass mill shape prices were up 3.7% in May but still -3.7% for the year. Fabricated structural metal bar joists and rebar prices were up .3% and 1.3% for the last 12 months.

What this Means for Metal Buyers

Energy prices are still rising, changing the cost calculations for construction projects, yet construction materials prices remain low, allowing estimators to reduce costs.

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Sources told Reuters that steelmakers in China were selling their products below cost and President Obama hosted a picnic at the White House with members of Congress ahead of a key trade vote.

Confirming What We Already Knew

Some Chinese steelmakers are selling their products abroad at a loss, traders and a producer told Reuters, as a group of global industry bodies urged governments to take action over rising shipments from China.

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Chinese mills had sold steel overseas at a loss of up to 200 CNY ($32) a metric ton and cut the export price of hot-rolled coil by 5% to $340-$350 per mt, free-on-board basis, this week compared to last week, traders and a producer in Hebei, China’s top steel-producing province told the news service.

These mills were also selling at a loss to the domestic market, the sources said.

“The domestic market is too weak to consume high output and our prices are competitive, so some mills are still keen to step up exports, hoping to ease high inventories and maintain market share,” said a senior official at a privately owned mill in Hebei.

Preesident Has Picnic With Lawmakers Ahead of Trade Re-Vote

President Obama hosted members of Congress yesterday for the congressional picnic amid a fierce trade debate on Capitol Hill.

This year’s gathering took place before the House was expected to hold a vote today to revive the president’s stalled trade agenda, and less than one week after Democrats killed a key part of the legislative package.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was in attendance at the picnic. The president has not spoken with her personally since she led the Democratic revolt against the trade bills.

The event is seen as an opportunity for the president to get face time with lawmakers in a low-pressure setting. That could prove to be important for Obama with the House set for a re-vote on fast-track trade authority and a measure to provide aid to US workers displaced by international trade.

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The American Iron and Steel Institute said in a telephone press conference that the House of Representatives’ passage last Friday of a customs bill, which includes new trade remedy provisions for collecting tariffs on imports determined to have been illegally subsidized or “dumped” by their origin nations, was a major win for the US steel industry.

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The House voted in favor, Friday, of trade promotion authority (TPA), a major free trade power desired by President Obama, but the House also rejected Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) in a separate vote. In order for TPA to advance to the President for his signature, the House had to pass both TPA and TAA. So, TPA was pronounced not to have passed yet, either.

What Now For Trade Authority?

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R. Ohio) has already moved to reconsider the vote on TAA and the House rules committee will extend the time for a second vote to occur sometime between now and July 3oth. While it was certainly a setback for the President in getting fast approval of TPA, there was a separate vote on a customs bill that includes trade remedy provisions that passed.

“We specifically advocated for provisions to provide for more effective remedies against imports that are dumped or subsidized,” said Thomas Gibson, president and CEO of AISIS. “As regulars on this call know, steel imports have reached historic levels in the past few years due, in large part, to unfair trade practices.”

New Customs Enforcement Passes

Finished steel imports in 2014 increased 36% compared to 2013. Total steel imports over the same time frame were up 38%. Last year, imports captured 28% of the market surpassing the prior record of 26% and this year the finished import steel market share has continued to thrive and is already at 32% on the year-to-date. Not surprisingly, year-to-date raw steel production is down 7.3% and shipments through April were down 9.5%.

Approval of the House customs bill was NOT dependent on the passage of the TPA/TAA package in the House, either. So, both the senate and house have passed customs bills. The Senate passed its ENFORCE (Enforcing Orders and Reducing Customs Evasion) bill in April

The two bills now go to conference committee to resolve their differences. One difference between the House and Senate bills is the so-called “enforcement act” provisions which would create a new procedure for industries to petition for action to address trans-shipment and evasion of already-determined customs duties. The ENFORCE Act creates procedures for a federal agency or interested party to make good faith allegations of a company’s evasion of anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders to US Customs and Border Protection.

Senate ENFORCE Act Better for US Producers

“AISI has long-supported the senate version of the bill and will continue to push for adoption of its approach in the conference committee,” Gibson said, “but the bottom line is the steel industry is one major step closer to getting trade remedy provisions signed into law after last Friday and that’s a good thing.”

Gibson also said the infrastructure bill authorization runs out again at the end of July and the House ways and means committee and the senate finance committee are holding hearings this week to find a long-term solution for funding the Highway Trust Fund for upkeep of federal roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

No Reason to Tie Highway Funding to TAA

“It affects us in two ways: use of the infrastructure for a competitive economy and the public construction market is beholden to its infrastructure for transportation,” Gibson said. “AISI supports a user fee approach, something like a gas tax to provide a long-term funding solution. We think it can be solved this year.”

Gibson stopped short of supporting a solution that combines both a highway bill and TAA as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D. Calif.) advocated last week after speaking against the TAA bill on the House floor.

“We don’t believe it can get done at the same time at this point,” Gibson said. “We believe those comments were more of an explanation by former Speaker Pelosi of why she was against the bill (TAA) she had said she was for the week before.”

Anti-Dumping Enforcement

Gibson said as soon as the conference committee sends a final customs bill to the President and he signs it, the new language would apply and a petitioner to Customs and Border Protection could take advantage of the new trade law remedy provisions for enforcing existing anti-dumping countervailing duties.

The remedy provisions would not drastically change the standards by which injury is determined and how they are adjudicated. The ENFORCE ACT and the House’s customs deal mainly with the enforcement, addressing evasion, trans-shipments and other ways importers avoid duties at US customs.

“As opposed to bringing cases to the International Trade Commission and Dept. of Commerce, which is the trade remedy provisions, these deal with enforcement,” Gibson said. “That’s exactly why we think the senate version (ENFORCE) is superior to the version that passed the House because it has enforceable deadlines and, if an agency ignored its obligations, you’d be able to go to a court to tell the agency to obey its mandate.”

Trade adjustment assistance expires at the end of September if it’s not reauthorized before then. Gibson said that would be a big loss for proponents of free trade such as the President and congress’ republican majority who have both supported TAA in its current form. He also said the next “pressure point” was Congress’ July 4th recess which actually starts June 30th and AISI expected action on TAA before that.

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