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India’s recent decision to impose an additional import tax on a number of stainless steel flat products from China for five years has generally been welcomed by the Indian steel industry and trade bodies.

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The tax, said the Government of India, was to curb the influx of cheaper foreign imports.

A countervailing duty of 18.95% has been imposed on some hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel flat products. This is aimed at helping local steelmakers benefit when there is a surge in imports, the government said.

A statement by the government said Chinese imports “were distorting the domestic market, which was under huge stress and led to financial stress in the industry.”

In the past, too, India has imposed a slew of anti-dumping duties on imports of steel and stainless steel products from China, Japan and South Korea.

According to a Reuters report, the U.S. Department of Commerce also said it would be looking into possible dumping and subsidization of stainless steel flanges from China and India.

Steel producers in India have welcomed the move.

According to Jindal Stainless Vice-Chairman Abhyuday Jindal, the decision will encourage production of the metal within the country and will provide some relief to the domestic industry.

India’s apex stainless steel industry body, the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA), has also welcomed the imposition of countervailing duty, President KK Pahuja said.

Due to the subsidized imports from China, the domestic players were facing huge losses. Industry experts have claimed several MSME segment businesses were forced to shut down due to subsidized imports from China. The imposition of a countervailing duty would help revive the industry, regain lost ground and create jobs, the Pahuja added.

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The CVD investigation was initiated on April 12, 2016, by the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping and Allied Duties (DGAD) in response to a surge in subsidized imports of stainless steel flat products from China.

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This morning in metals news, Chinese steel production once again hit a record last month, copper took a dip, and the gap between high-grade and low-grade iron ore grew larger as China attempts to combat its smog problem.

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Steel Output Hits New Record in China

Steel mills in China cranked up production levels en route to hitting a new monthly production record, according to Bloomberg.

According to the report, Chinese crude steel output hit 74.59 million metric tons in August, surpassing the previous peak of 74.02 million in July.

Copper Falls Back

Copper has been having a good year, but it fell to a four-week low Thursday as a result of what Reuters calls lackluster Chinese economic data.

What appears to be slowing demand from China, the world’s top metals consumer, contributed to the metal’s drop, according to the report.

Premiums Soar for High-Grade Iron Ore

Sticking with the China theme, Reuters reported the gap between high-grade and low-grade iron ore in China grew as a result of the country’s efforts to fight pollution.

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The trading gap between the two forms of ore was at its highest since August 2011, according to the report.

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This morning in metals news, U.S. primary aluminum is still low despite an increase in prices, China Zhongwang Holding announced it had purchased a German aluminum producer and associations representing steel, soybeans and poultry were united by the issue of steel tariffs.

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U.S. Primary Aluminum Production

Aluminum prices have been on a steady climb in recent months, but primary aluminum production remains low, according to a report in Hellenic Shipping News.

In fact, since January 2015, the country’s primary aluminum production has dropped 50%.

Zhongwang Makes Investment

China Zhongwang Holding announced Wednesday that it is making an investment in a German aluminum producer Aluminiumwerk Unna AG, according to state-owned news agency Xinhua.

The value of the deal has yet to be disclosed, according to the report, but the acquisition is part of Zhongwang’s effort for an increased presence in the aircraft aluminum market.

Steel, Soybeans and Chicken

Associations representing steel, soybeans and chicken came together this week to express their belief regarding the potential negative impact of steel tariffs.

Platts reported that the American Institute for International Steel, the National Chicken Council and the American Soybean Association published a new report covering the impacts of steel tariffs on supply chains.

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The Trump administration’s Section 232 investigation into steel imports is ongoing. The probe, launched in April, has a January deadline for completion.

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Details are pretty sketchy at present, but a recent Reuters article sheds light on an investigation underway by Germany’s competition regulator into a suspected violation of antitrust laws in the steel industry.

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According to Reuters, the investigation expands an ongoing cartel office inquiry, which already covers makers and sellers of stainless steel, car manufacturers and suppliers, as well as companies in the forging sector.

The suspicion is of “anti-competitive collusion between companies” on flat steel products. Although not all steel firms are currently under investigation, many of the largest ones are.

Both ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter have confirmed units of their company have been searched in the first phase of an operation late last month that included seven companies and three private homes in Germany. According to the Reuters report, Manager Magazin reported that included in the investigation is the German Steel Federation, an industry association, although the publication did not cite any sources in its report.

Interestingly, any collusion may be limited. Kajor steel producer Thyssenkrupp and steel distributor trader Kloeckner & Co. both said they had not been searched, according to Reuters, nor is this part of a wider European Union action. Allegations appear to be restricted to several steel producers in Germany, although some of them, such as ArcelorMittal, are multinationals.

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This morning in metals news, U.S. steel production is up for the year, copper backed off its three-year high and a U.S. firm extended its merger deal with a Chinese company.

Steel Production Up 3.2%

According to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), U.S. raw steel production is up 3.2% in the year to date (through Sept. 2) compared with the same time frame in 2016.

Adjusted production through Sept. 2 amounted to 60,900,000 net tons, up from the 59,025,000 net tons last year to the same point last year.

For the week ending Sept. 2, domestic raw steel production was 1,747,000 net tons, up 8.6% for the same week in 2016 and up 0.4% from the previous week (ending Aug. 26).

Copper Falls Back

After hitting a three-year high, copper fell back slightly from that Wednesday.

LME copper fell 0.3% to $6,880 a ton by 0155 GMT, according to Reuters.

Staying Together

Aluminum and rolled products producer Aleris International extended a merger agreement with Chinese firm Zhongwang USA LLC, according to Platts.

The deal was extended to Sept. 15, according to the report. The deal was previously set to expire Aug. 31.

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This morning in metals news, LME copper had a quieter Wednesday, Mexico looks to formulate a backup plan for a potential life after NAFTA and steelmakers are looking to maintain their market share in the world of skyscrapers.

LME Copper Hangs Near Three-Year High

LME copper didn’t have as big of a day on Wednesday as it did on Tuesday — nonetheless, the metal is still close to its three-year high.

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According to Reuters, a bounceback in the dollar slowed momentum gained from growth in China’s housing and manufacturing sectors.

Life After NAFTA? Mexico Considers It

As President Donald Trump in recent weeks has resumed threats of terminating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico is looking to formulate a backup plan.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo called the talks to renegotiate the deal a “roller coaster,” according to Reuters.

With the rhetoric from Trump picking up, it’s not surprising that Mexico is planning for a situation in which Trump pulls the plug on the 23-year-old trade deal.

Steelmakers with Eyes to the Skies

Concrete is becoming increasingly popular as a building material — so much so that steelmakers are  working hard to preserve their construction market share.

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According to a Bloomberg report: “Since 2000, steelmakers outside China expanded output of structural beams and columns at only about half the pace of rods, or rebar, used to reinforce concrete, the World Steel Association says.”

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Several sources are leading on news that President Trump has twice rejected a Chinese proposal to cut steel overcapacity, despite the endorsement of some of his top advisors.

An agreement reached between U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Chinese officials last month agreed a cut of 150 million tons per annum of capacity by 2022 was vetoed by the president, apparently because he preferred a more “disruptive strategy,” according to Reuters and the Financial Times.

The articles suggested the 22% rise in steel imports through July of this year compared to a year ago, reported by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), spurred calls for action from U.S. steel producers to apply tariffs. Those calls may have influenced Trump’s position, as may the input of Steve Bannon, since fired, and Peter Navarro, an economic assistant to the president on trade matters.

The rejection of a deal brokered by Ross’ team seems to have undermined his position and probably leaves little room for further negotiation. The Chinese have gone away to consider their options, but rumors reported in the Financial Times suggest retaliatory action seems the most likely.

But while picking a fight with China probably makes for good headlines, at least as far as U.S. imports are concerned, is it the primary antagonist?

Not if you look at the AISI data.

Their findings suggest Taiwan and Turkey were the countries making up much of the increase. There was a sizeable increase from other countries, too, meaning Germany, up nearly 60%, and Brazil, up 80%, on three-month rolling average measures.

At 83,000 tons, China’s share of finished steel imports is a fraction of South Korea’s 352,000 tons, Turkey’s 245,000 tons or Japan and Germany’s about 138,000 tons.

Unless the administration plans on tackling these suppliers, picking out China seems a bit like fiddling while Rome burns.

We would hope that Trump’s presidency ends much better than Nero’s both for the man and the country, but picking fights that have a pragmatic strategy rather than catching headlines would be a good first step.

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This morning in metals news, production of raw steel in the U.S. is up for the year, President Donald Trump reportedly rejected a Chinese proposal to cut its steel excess capacity and copper approached a three-year high.

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Steel Production Up 3% Year-Over-Year: AISI

According to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute on Monday, U.S. raw steel production for the week ending Aug. 26 was down 1.3% from the previous week.

However, compared to the same week in 2016, production was up 5.1%.

In the year to date, production through Aug. 26 amounted to 59,153,000 net tons, up 3% from the 57,416,000 net tons during the same period last year.

Trump Reportedly Rejects China’s Capacity Cut Proposal

Given how much ink has been spilled and time spent talking about Chinese excess steel capacity and its effect on the global market, one would think any proposals from China aimed at cutting capacity would be welcomed.

Apparently not.

According to reporting from the Financial Times, President Trump rejected a Chinese proposal to cut its excess capacity. China proposed cutting 150 million tons by 2022, but Trump instead directed advisors to find ways to impose tariffs on imports, according to the report.

As has been discussed ad nauseam, China’s overcapacity has been the focal point of the Trump administration’s Section 232 investigations into steel and aluminum imports.

Copper Continues Rise

Copper rose nearly to a three-hear high Tuesday on falling inventories and a dropping dollar, Reuters reported.

The metal reached $6,825 per ton, its highest since October 2014, according to the report.

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India’s protectionist measures to safeguard its steel industry seem to be paying off.

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As reported consistently by AG Metal Miner, the Indian government, responding to the call of its steelmakers, had time and again imposed various forms of anti-dumping measures and fines to stop cheap imports of steel — especially from the world’s steel manufacturing leader, China.

Along with the U.S. and Brazil, India was said to be one of the world’s leading initiators of anti-dumping investigations, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Well, now, all this has resulted in India’s steel exports doubling to 8.2 million tons and imports have been slashed by about one-third in 2016-17.

As per a report by the Press Trust of India (PTI), quoting from portions of the released Economic Survey, the rise in exports of steel could also wipe away the excess capacity built up in the steel sector. The mid-year survey by the government said steel imports had declined in 2016-17, while exports of steel had doubled.

Alloy imports dipped by 36.6% to 7.4 million tons in 2016- 17 against 11.7 million tons in the previous fiscal year. Exports doubled to 8.2 million tons last fiscal year, over 4.1 million tons in the corresponding year.

The news was welcomed by steel companies like Tata Steel. T.V. Narendran, managing director for Tata Steel India and South East Asia, told newsmen that steel demand in India was increasing, making it just right to make future investments. Stability was being witnessed in the steel sector globally, though it had faced some problem two years ago, Narendran told reporters.

Ironically, much of Indian steel joy stems from its traditional rival China, where there’s been a visible improvement in the economy — which meant much of its steel being produced was once again being used within the country. It was against the backdrop of China’s economic slowdown that the global steel industry had faced distress due to decline in global demand.

The Indian survey report said, in response to the dumping of cheap imports, the government in 2016 introduced a host of measures like raising Basic Customs Duty, imposition of Minimum Import Price (MIP) and anti-dumping duties in order to shield domestic producers. The government imposed the MIP for steel in February 2016 for a period of one year.

On April 12, 2016, India initiated countervailing duty investigation concerning imports of certain hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel flat products originating in China.

According to the WTO, India’s share in total global steel exports increased from 1.1% in 2000 to 2.8% in 2016. During this period, China’s share in total steel exports rose from 3.7% in 2000 to 19.2% in 2016. Japan’s share in total steel exports in 2000 which was 12.2%, but fell to 9.1% in 2016.

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Meanwhile, the U.S. share in total steel imports was 17.0% in 2000, but has since come down to 12.1% in 2016.

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This afternoon in metals news, supply-side reform in China is having significant effects on global markets, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer calls for trade action to combat cheap imports of steel and aluminum from China and other countries, and scientists have resolved a long-standing mystery about a prehistoric copper smelting event.

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Chinese Supply-Side Reforms Leave Their Mark

There are many who question the impact of China’s efforts to curtail excess production, but according to a report by Platts, supply-side reforms in the country are having major impacts around the world.

China’s net steel exports through the first seven months of the year were down almost a third, according to the report. Hot rolled coil prices have also risen in the process, reaching their highest point since 2013.

“Given the current protectionist bent that seems to span the globe, it will be interesting to see how China’s metal exports will be perceived in a few years’ time,” the Platts report concludes. “In the US, for example, there is not enough steel capacity to deliver upon the infra-build being promised by President Trump, should Section 232 be imposed, and the build go ahead.”

Schumer Calls for Action on Cheap Steel, Aluminum Imports

The Trump administration launched Section 232 investigations into imports of steel and aluminum, with a particular focus on China.

On Tuesday, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, sounded a similar note, according to a report in the Watertown Daily Times.

“There are top notch manufactures like Alcoa and Nucor ready to provide high-quality aluminum and steel to businesses in and around the country, but China’s overproduction has resulted in a substantial threat to Upstate New York’s metal industry by making it almost impossible for companies that play by the rules to compete,” Schumer said in a statement.

According to the report, Schumer has sent letters to Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on the matter.

Scientists Resolve Ancient Copper Smelting Mystery

For more than half a century, the origins of a copper smelting event at a prehistoric archaeological site has remained a mystery.

But recently, a team of scientists hit paydirt at the Late Neolithic site of Çatalhöyük in central Turkey.

“Scholars have been hotly debating the origins and spread of metallurgy for decades, mainly due to the relationship this technology had with the rise of social complexity and economy of the world’s first civilisations in the Near East,” according to a report in phys.org.

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According to the report, a study published Tuesday in the Journal of Archaeological Science concludes that that after “the re-examination of a c. 8,500-year-old by-product from metal smelting, or ‘slag’, from the site of Çatalhöyük presents the conclusive reconstruction of events that led to the firing of a small handful of green copper minerals.”