Last week, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to continue the AD and CVD investigations into common alloy aluminum sheet from China — a decision met with favor by some and concern by others within domestic industry. Buying Aluminum in 2018? Download MetalMiner’s free annual price outlook Unlike most such cases, the Department of Commerce […]
Category: Metal Prices
Zinc Has Been the Best-Performing LME Metal of Late — Can it Go Up Further?
Like all base metals, zinc was been driven higher by a weak dollar — but that is far from the only driver pushing it to outperform all other base metals so far this year. Inventories Continue to Fall LME zinc inventories have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks to their lowest since October 2008. There was […]
The January MMI Report: Prices Rise as Industry Awaits Trump’s 232 Decision
It’s that time — our latest Monthly Metals Index (MMI) report is in, covering the final month of 2017. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook So, before we move onto 2018 for good, let’s take one last look at our newest MMI report and recap some of the highlights: […]
Tight Nickel Market Sees London Prices Hit $13,200 Per Metric Ton
LME nickel prices hit $13,200 per ton last Wednesday, the highest level since June 2015 before investors took profits and the price fell back a touch to $12,870 per metric ton. Prices were led higher by the ShFE, where stock have fallen to 48,920 tons from over 90,000 tons just a year ago — and […]
Week in Review: Section 232 Report Moves to Trump, MMIs and Oil
Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a quick look back at the week that was here on MetalMiner: Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook This week we wrapped up the latest round of posts for our January Monthly Metals Index (MMI) — check out this week’s posts […]
This Morning in Metals: U.S. Steel Imports Rise 15.5% in 2017
This morning in metals news, U.S. steel imports rose significantly in 2017, Shanghai nickel hits a 2-month high and the Peruvian government is considering a $2.4 billion railway project in light of rising copper output. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Steel Imports Up by 15.5%; 2017 Market Share […]
Renewables MMI: International Trade Commission Mulls Extending 18-Year Steel Plate Tariffs
The Renewable Monthly Metals Index (MMI) picked up a point for our January reading, rising from 78 to 79 (a 1.3% jump).
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Several of the heavier hitters in this basket of metals posted price increases this past month.
U.S. steel plate rose 4.0% and U.S. grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) coil rose 3.8%. Korean steel plate also increased, rising by a whopping 8.9% for the recent monthly window.
Chinese silicon and cobalt cathodes also posted notable price jumps. Meanwhile, Chinese steel plate fell slightly, while Japanese steel plate posted a small price jump.
Continuation of Steel Plate Tariffs on the Table
U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky (D-Merrillville, Indiana) testified before the International Trade Commission recently on the subject of extending 18-year-old duties on cut-to-length carbon-quality steel plate from India, Indonesia and South Korea, the Northwest Indiana Times reported.
Northwest Indiana, where Merrillville sits, is home to significant domestic steel industry activity, including by ArcelorMittal, which produces steel plate at its Burns Harbor Plate Mill — located in Gary, Indiana — the paper reported.
“As a representative and resident of Northwest Indiana, I am acutely aware of the challenges facing the American steel industry due to the onslaught of illegal steel imports,” the Times quoted Visclosky as saying during testimony at a hearing in Washington, D.C. “The ArcelorMittal facility at Burns Harbor in Northwest Indiana makes cut-to-length carbon-quality steel plate, and every one of those dedicated workers deserve to be able to continue to fairly compete and make the best steel to the best of their ability in our global economy.”
Of course, the issue is one of many metals-related trade issues before U.S. trade bodies (the most headline-grabbing being the Section 232 probes into steel and aluminum imports, for which a ruling is expected this month).
Like the Section 232 probes, which seek to determine whether those imports negatively impact the country’s national security, Visclosky also cited national security concerns vis-a-vis steel plate imports.
“It is essential for both our national defense and our national economy, and we cannot afford to threaten our production capabilities,” the paper quoted Visnosky as saying.
GOES Gets a Boost
As reported by our Lisa Reisman yesterday, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) got a boost this past month.
GOES prices, as Reisman noted, usually don’t move in tandem with other forms of steel — but it didn’t play out that way in December.
Import levels, however, are something to monitor going forward.
“In addition to prices moving in a similar direction, import levels also followed similar patterns, although GOES imports showed a dramatically higher increase whereas finished steel imports grew by 14.5% on an annualized basis according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI),” Reisman added.
While China is often the subject of much discussion regarding a flood of imports into the U.S., when it comes to GOES, Japan is actually the leader in exports to the U.S.
[caption id="attachment_89715" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: International Trade Administration and MetalMiner analysis[/caption]
Japan owns about two-thirds of the U.S. GOES import market share, rising significantly despite a drop in overall finished steel sent to the U.S.
The explanation for that disparity?
“Increased domestic efficiency standards have led to the development of higher performance electrical steels (HB), which have taken share away from the more conventional grades produced by the sole U.S. producer,” Reisman wrote. “With no U.S. producer of these grades, the market has become more reliant on exports from Japan.”
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Rare Earths MMI: Global Market Projected to Hit $20 Billion by 2024
The Rare Earths Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held flat for the month, posting a value of 18 for our January reading. 
Reflecting the lack of movement in the MMI value, the basket of metals posted modest price fluctuations.
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Chinese yttrium rose 1.9%, while terbium oxide dropped 0.8%. Neodymium oxide fell 1.3% on the month.
Australian Miner Receives State’s EPA Approval
A $900 million Australian miner received approval from the state’s Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), mining.com reported.
According to the report, Arafura Resources received approval on Friday after a two-year process. The EPA had been considering the environmental impacts of the Nolans rare earths project, the website reported, concluding that those risks at the site could be managed.
According to the report, Arafura estimates the project would create an investment of about $900 million in central Australia.
Global Market to Reach $20 Billion by 2024
The global rare earths market is projected to hit a value of $20 billion by 2024, according to a research report by Global Market Insights, Inc.
“Growing demand for magnets in automobiles, and energy generation will majorly contribute to the growth of global rare earth metals market over the forecast period,” the Globe Newswire release states. “The demand for rare earth magnets is majorly increasing by their consumption in electric and hybrid vehicles, and wind turbines. Increasing focus on utilizing clean and renewable energy is giving a substantial pressure on the electricity providers, to generate energy through renewable sources, which in turn will show a positive impact on the growth of this market.”
Not surprisingly given China’s overwhelming dominance of the rare earths markets, prices will continue to fluctuate somewhat wildly based on Chinese supply.
As for individual metals, neodymium will continue on in its place at or near the top of the rare-earths heap.
“By revenue, neodymium had the highest market share in 2016, with a market share of over 30%,” the release states. “It will dominate the global rare earth metals market till the end of projected period. Neodymium market will grow at a CAGR of 8.2% from 2017 to 2024.”
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Actual Metal Prices and Trends
GOES MMI: GOES M3 Prices Rise with Other Forms of Steel
Grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) prices do not often follow the pattern of price increases for other forms of steel. However, December’s data suggests otherwise. GOES prices increased along with HRC, CRC, plate and HDG. In addition to prices moving in a similar direction, import levels also followed similar patterns, although GOES imports showed a dramatically […]
Stainless Steel MMI: LME Nickel Price Approaches $13K/MT
The Stainless Steel MMI (Monthly Metals Index) jumped six points this month, with a reading of 71. This reading ran higher than November’s (70), which then dropped to 65 for December before bouncing back for our January reading.
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Skyrocketing LME nickel prices drove the Stainless Steel MMI. However, 304 and 316 Allegheny Ludlum surcharges fell slightly this month.
LME Nickel Makes Big Jump
As reported previously by MetalMiner, nickel price volatility has increased over the past few months.
Nickel prices jumped from the $10,600/metric ton level in October to almost breaching MetalMiner’s current $13,000/mt ceiling.
[caption id="attachment_89668" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets[/caption]
Trading volume remains strong, aligned with the recent popularity of nickel in the base metals complex. Besides stainless steel, nickel’s popularity has increased due to usage in batteries and electric cars. Q4 brought more activity for metals that have a direct impact on electric cars.
Nickel macro-indicators may support this latest rally.
The nickel deficit will continue this year. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) reported a wider nickel deficit again in 2017, now up to 9,700 tons. A nickel supply deficit may add support to the nickel bullish rally and could create additional upward movements this year.
Buying organizations may want to be aware of these movements to identify opportunities to buy on the dips.
Chinese Stainless Steel
As reported by the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), global stainless steel production increased by 7.4% during the first nine months of 2017. China drove the gains, with an increase in production of 8.8%. Stainless steel prices decreased around 7% in East Asian ports.
[caption id="attachment_89669" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
Chinese stainless steel coil prices increased slightly this month. Chinese prices remain higher than they were in Q2. However, there has not yet been a clear uptrend that signals prices may increase soon.
Domestic Stainless Steel Market
Despite the recovery in momentum of the Stainless MMI, NAS domestic stainless steel surcharges traded sideways this month. Despite trading flat, stainless steel surcharges remain well above last year’s lows (under $0.4/pound).
[caption id="attachment_89670" align="aligncenter" width="580"]
Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)[/caption]
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
Stainless steel momentum appears in recovery, similar to all the other forms of steel.
However, due to nickel’s high price volatility, buying organizations may want to follow the market closely for opportunities to buy on the dips.
To understand how to adapt buying strategies to your specific needs on a monthly basis, take a look at our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook or you can take a free trial now.
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Actual Stainless Steel Prices and Trends
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