Commodities

Nickel hit a six-year low yesterday as Greece’s debt crisis obliterated confidence in global growth.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

The London Metal Exchange’s Index of six industrial metals is heading for a fourth-straight quarterly loss, the longest such streak since 2001. Greece’s standoff with its creditors is adding to economic concerns amid a slowdown in China.

Stainless_Chart_June-2015_FNL

Nickel for three-month delivery retreated 4.9% to settle at $11,835 a metric ton at 5:51 p.m. on the LME, the biggest drop since Sept. 9. The price touched $11,730, the lowest since May 2009. The metal has lost 22% of its value this year.

Daily LME data showed nickel stocks rose 870 mt to 459,018 mt, halting a falling trend seen since the start of June and again sowing doubts that the market is poised to tighten significantly.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) approved three new nickel brands – including OAO Norilsk Nickel – today for delivery against its contracts as persistently high stockpiles and risk aversion over Greece weighed on the market.

Free Download: MetalMiner’s Top Service Centers Guide

{ 0 comments }

Home sales surged in May and major producer Australia cut its iron ore forecast further.

US Home Sales Hit 9-Year High

Contracts to buy existing homes in the US rose in May to their highest level in over nine years, boosting the housing market and the broader economic outlook.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that its pending home sales index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 0.9% to 112.6, the highest level since April 2006. Contracts have now increased for five straight months.

Australia Cuts Iron Ore Price Forecast

Australia, on Tuesday, cut its price forecast for iron ore in 2015 by 10% to $54.40 a metric ton, citing a weak outlook for the commodity’s main market, China’s steel sector. The forecast by the Department of Industry and Science is a sharp decrease from the $60.40 per mt predicted three months ago and is way off the $94 a mt touted in January.

Free Download: MetalMiner’s Top Service Centers Guide

{ 0 comments }

Today, the Greek debt crisis touched all markets, including commodities, and a bipartisan group of US Senators unveiled the long-term highway bill that the construction industry has long clamored for.

Greek Debt Crisis Roils Markets

Commodities could not escape the market turmoil caused by Greece’s capital controls and a hefty drop in Chinese equities, with the stronger dollar and risk aversion hitting raw materials led by oil and metals.

Webinar TODAY! Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

On the London Metal Exchange, amid a sea of red for industrial metals prices, nickel plumbed a six-year low. The metal, an ingredient for stainless steel, fell 4.6% to $11,855 a metric ton, while aluminum was off 1.5%, copper fell 0.5% and tin dropped 2.5%.

Senators Unveil Long-Term Highway Bill

A bipartisan coalition of senators on Tuesday introduced a six-year bill that would boost overall spending on US roads and bridges.

Working against a July 31 deadline, the senators acknowledged that it will be an uphill effort to corral their Senate colleagues and the House to pass a bill.

The six-year bill would increase highway spending by almost 13% over the current level, bumping it up by more than $2 billion each year. It includes a new program to spread more than $2 billion a year among states to invest in improvements for freight facilities that move goods and products.

It further streamlines project approval, cutting federal red tape that state officials say has slowed projects down. It holds flat at $819 million the money for pedestrian and cycling improvements and for roadway landscaping. Senator Barbara Boxer (D.-Calif.) joined Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the committee’s chairman, and Sens. David Vitter (R-La.) and Thomas R. Carper (D-Del.) in writing the bill. The cost of the bill is estimated to be about $350 billion and would require new funding if it is passed.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

{ 0 comments }

The US Steel industry has long said that a wave of cheap and illegally subsidized imports is crushing its ability to compete.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

While not turning a blind eye to the situation, Washington has not been as responsive to the situation as many in the domestic steel industry would like. The lobbying efforts of domestic steel have largely fallen on deaf ears when it comes to enforcing existing trade laws and placing tariffs that would be punitive enough to stop foreign nations such as China from overproducing.

Yet, today, a key bill supporting tougher anti-dumping enforcement has passed the House, has a path to passing the Senate and even more customs protections could be passed as early as next week. All from a Congress known more for not passing legislation than passing it. How did this happen? First, let’s see how we got here.

WTO Claims Chinese Imports Aren’t Subsidized

Some relatively modest tariffs were revoked a year ago when the World Trade Organization said the US broke the rules for imposing duties on Chinese steel products, solar panels and other goods.

The WTO’s judges said that under the 1964 Marrakesh accords (which also set up the WTO) countervailing duties can only be levied when there is clear evidence that state-owned or partially state-owned enterprises passing on the subsidies are “public bodies.”

The panel found that Washington had produced insufficient evidence to prove subsidization, and was also at fault in its calculations of the value of the subsidies to Chinese firms. This was a very novel reading for the WTO as there is…

Actual Proof That Chinese Steel is Subsidized

Last year, and now, evidence exists that Chinese steel is subsidized on the state and national level and exports are sold below cost.

This history of ignoring evidence is why we didn’t expect big things for steel this week. Maybe more ambiguous language about actually enforcing existing law as a sweetener in the Trade Promotion Authority bill that both the president the republican congress support, but nothing more.

How, then, did steel become the big winner?

TPA Goes Down in Flames

When democrats in the House refused to approve TPA it looked like the bill, that would ensure an up or down vote for future trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, wouldn’t move forward.

When TPA was separated from a worker aid package for those displaced by future trade deals known as Trade Adjustment Assistance, we still didn’t think it would result in help for domestic steel, yet competing interests that put free-trade Republicans and the Obama administration on one side and more liberal democrats on the other worked in the industry’s favor.

Long Live TPA

TPA, once separated from TAA, passed the House and then the Senate. It still looked like more trade deals and no help for steel or US manufacturing. But with TAA still stuck in the House, guess what the perfect sweetener to get democrats on board become? Support for the US steel industry. The Congressional Steel Caucus is a bipartisan group that spans several key states. Senators and congressmen and women from the midwest, south and southwest coalesced around their support for local steel.

TAA Passes With Stronger Steel Support

Not only did the House leadership promise new safeguards for the steel industry as part of the revamped TAA bill that passed yesterday, but a customs enforcement bill that would force US Customs and Border Protection to enforce anti-dumping laws as written also passed both houses earlier in the week. It awaits a conference committee negotiation, one that the American Iron and Steel Institute favors the Senate version of the bill in. Everything’s suddenly coming up steel.

TPA passed both houses by midweek and TAA passed the Senate and, after being sweetened with support for the steel industry, the House yesterday. Even more customs enforcement protections are still waiting in the conference committee.

“We commend the House for passing legislation today that will improve the effectiveness of our anti-dumping and countervailing duty laws to combat unfairly traded imports,” said Thomas Gibson, president and CEO of the AISI. “These modifications to the trade laws come at a critical time for the steel industry, as we are currently faced with a surge in steel imports that are causing injury to the domestic industry, including significant reductions in domestic steel production and job losses. We look forward to President Obama quickly signing this bill into law.”

It’s about time.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

 

{ 0 comments }

Yesterday, the only US-based rare earths miner — Greenwood, Colo.-based Molycorp, Inc. — filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as part of a reorganization of the company's debt.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

This has been expected since Molycorp missed a debt payment early this month. In a statement, Molycorp President and CEO Geoff Bedford said, "The actions we have taken today are important steps toward achieving a restructuring of our $1.7 billion debt with our major creditor constituencies. In doing so, the company expects to exit Chapter 11 with an appropriate financing framework to support our business going forward."

Rare-Earths_Chart_June-2015_FNL

We have documented the long stock price slide Molycorp has experienced and how many manufacturers have simply found substitutions for the light rare earths they offer. As with any bankruptcy, Molycorp's shares will be removed from the New York Stock Exchange and move to the OTC pink sheets.

While it's difficult to say if Molycorp will be able to emerge as quickly as Bedford's prediction, it will take recovery in the overall rare earths market for it to succeed. Our MetalMiner Indx has documented a steady slide in rare earths prices over the last two years.

What This Means for Rare Earths Buyers

China eliminating quotas and opening its rare earth products up to foreign markets is depressing prices overall. Right now rare earths are in surplus and less production or greater demand will be necessary to bring prices back to 2011 levels.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

The Rare Earths MMI® collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a unique view into rare earth metal price trends. For more information on the Rare Earths MMI®, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

Oil and gas take center stage today in MetalCrawler as the US makes gains in total production and refinery capacity.

US Beats Russia as Top Oil and Gas Producer

The US has topped Russia as the biggest oil and natural-gas producer in a demonstration of the seismic shifts in the world energy landscape emanating from America’s shale fields.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

US oil production rose to a record last year, gaining 1.6 million barrels a day, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy released recently. Gas output also climbed, putting America ahead of Russia as a producer of the hydrocarbons combined.

The data showing the U.S.’s emergence as the top driller confirms a trend that’s helped the world’s largest economy reduce imports, caused a slump in global energy prices and shifted the country’s foreign policy priorities.

US Refinery Capacity Up, Too

US operable atmospheric crude distillation (CDU) capacity increased by 0.2% in 2014, reaching 18 million barrels per day (b/d) according to the Energy Information Administration‘s recently released annual Refinery Capacity Report. This was the second consecutive year of modest capacity growth following the 2.9% increase in 2012 that resulted from the restart of East Coast refineries that had closed in 2011.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

 

{ 0 comments }

What are your spot buying habits?

Check out our 30-minute debate this morning at 11AM Central (12 PM Eastern) between the husband-wife team of Jason Busch, Executive Editor of Spend Matters and Lisa Reisman, Executive Editor of MetalMiner, who promise to cover the following topics:

– Why sourcing on the spot market is actually speculative behavior and therefore risky

– Why using indexes when sourcing commodities is often just plain bad strategy

– Whether or not sourcing optimization actually creates benefits – it seems like a software led “problem” to create demand for technology

What’s In it for You?

– An interesting argument against conventional wisdom – turn some unconventional practices into profit

– An alternative viewpoint on your direct material commodity spend

– How to wring out every possible bit of value from some well-accepted “best practices”

{ 0 comments }

The oil price may be up, but oil companies are desperately shelving projects, slashing capital expenditures and laying off workers, and not just in US shale deposits.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

One area where oil production is set to rise for years to come is, ironically, one of the highest cost: the Canadian tar sands oil. Oil sands companies that have already sunk money into mines and steam injection wells in Alberta have no incentive to stop operating or building out projects that are already well underway.

Tar Sands Investments

Such capital intensive projects are on the opposite end of the price sensitivity scale from shale, where dozens of rigs have been idled over recent months. Oil sands are operated more like a factory, fleet of trucks or a pipeline, run at maximum capacity to reduce the unit cost as much as possible and service startup debt according to the FT.

The paper reports the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers last week forecast that western Canada’s output will keep increasing by about 156,000 barrels per day each year until 2020. Growth continues after that but slows to 85,000 b/d a year until 2030. Capital spending by Canada’s oil and natural gas industry will total Canadian $45 billion (US $37 billion) in 2015, 40% lower than 2014 and solely focused on building out existing projects that are too expensive to abandon.

New on the drawing board projects, on the other hand, have stayed there. New projects are projected to need an average Brent crude price of more than $100 per barrel to break even and no one, absolutely no one, is taking a bet on that anytime soon.

Compare that to an average break-even price of $29 per barrel for reserves onshore in the Middle East, $57 per barrel in ultra-deep water and $62 per barrel in North American shale, according to Rystad Energy quoted in a Reuters Commodity Note.

Climate Change Legislation Looms

The industry faces more challenges than just the price of oil. This year the leftist New Democratic Party was elected to govern the province of Alberta after pledging to raise corporate taxes and review oil royalties. Maybe even more of a threat is legislation as a result of fears of climate change.

The Oil-Climate Index shows that medium, sweet synthetic crude from Canada’s Athabasca oil sands generates 767 kilograms of CO2 per barrel, compared with 559 kg for Brent crude from the North Sea – itself hardly a low-carbon product due to the challenging deep water nature of UK’s North Sea oil fields.

The industry is trying to reduce costs and to reduce the carbon footprint of oil sands extraction technology, and if the innovative and entrepreneurial drive shown by US shale firms is any indication, it will undoubtedly make strides in both of those objectives. Even so, climate change legislation could be the killer just as oil prices begin to recover. A study by University College London found that 85% of Canada’s bitumen reserves should remain un-burnt if the world is to avoid the 2 degrees Celsius average temperature rise seen by many politicians as the tipping point number.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

{ 0 comments }

PriceWaterhouseCoopers‘ Mine 2015 Report was good news for India, but cast a troubling picture of the overall global mining industry.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

Dry-fuel miner Coal India Ltd. (CIL) moved up from the 8th to the 6th slot on the list of the largest mining companies in the world in terms of market capital.

A second state-owned company, which was also the country’s top iron ore miner, National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), also improved its ranking by coming in 21st, up three spots over the previous year.

What is Mine 2015?

Mine 2015 analyzed the financial performance of the world’s top 40 mining companies by market capitalization. The report said market values continue to fall, overall, in spite of improvements reported in the financial results of all top 40 companies.

Depending on which way you read it, in 2014, a collective $156 billion was eroded (about 16%) of the top 40 companies’ combined market value, but then again, that was only half of the 2013 slide. The collective market capitalization came in at $791 billion in 2014, which was the range miners held a decade ago.

The report said the world’s largest miners had reduced spending but stepped up production. The industry was also helped by lower input costs and currency devaluation. PwC did note, however, that weak commodity prices due to low demand hammered down revenues.

The Iron Ore Drag

The report said the downturn was largely driven by iron ore miners, particularly diversified companies with large exposure to shifts in commodity prices.

Last year, iron ore was the hardest hit, with prices dropping by half because of a supply glut and a negative short-term demand outlook, the report said.

On the coal front, coal miners in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) saw their values increase 19% over the period, regaining almost half of the value they lost in 2013.

In Asia, more industry consolidation was expected between key resource players from India and China in order to stem production overcapacity, the report said.

Chinese Production Still Surging

The coal companies of China made significant gains in the ranking of the top 40 mining companies, with three appearing in the this year’s top twenty.

China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd (Shenhua) topped the list, becoming the third most valuable mining company (based on market capitalization) after BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group. Shenhua moved up from fifth in 2013’s rankings.

Another company, China Coal Energy Co. climbed to 14th rank from 23rd in 2013, with a 30% increase in valuation, while Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co. jumped to 18th from 25th. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. came in at 26th – up from 34th in 2013. Yanzhou also recorded a more than 30% increase in value over 2014.

US Miners Can’t Keep Pace

On the other hand, not many US coal-mining companies charted in Mine 2015. Consol Energy found itself at number 28. No other companies charted despite noted concern from US manufacturing execs about local resource supply.

Of the 40 companies, 15 miners saw their share values appreciate, while 25 witnessed a decline.

The average return on capital employed was largely below the minimum hurdle investment rate of 15 to 20% set by the companies themselves. Only 6 of the 40 passed the 15% benchmark: CIL (coal), OAO Norilsk Nickel (nickel), NMDC (iron ore), Randgold (gold), Shandong Gold (gold), and Newcrest (gold), according to the report.

Copper Still Stagnating

On the copper front, Mine 2015 noted that global copper production had gone up by only 2.8% last year, which was way below the 8.1% of 2013. PwC noted that the world’s largest copper producer, Chile, had faced problems increasing its production due to falling grades.

PwC’s general outlook for the global metals and mining market though remains dreary due to the continuance of a slower rate of economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, especially due to the cooling off of China’s growth rate.

In 2014, iron ore, coal and copper prices had fallen by 50%, 26% and 11%, respectively, according to the report.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

{ 0 comments }

President Obama and congressional republicans won a battle for trade authority in congress and a major rare earths restructured and sought bankruptcy protection.

Trade Promotion Authority Passes Senate

The US Senate voted Wednesday to give President Barack Obama “fast track” authority to negotiate trade deals—one of the final steps in a long political battle that pitted the White House against House Democrats in a battle over trade authority for the president. Fast track means deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will be debated later this year, must be given an up or down vote by the Senate.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

The bill—which passed 60-38 in the Senate—will be sent to the president’s desk. Separate bills to provide assistance to American workers displaced by trade deals, known as Trade Adjustment Assistance, and to provide tougher anti-dumping enforcement protections from US Customs and Border Protection, particularly for the steel industry, are expected to follow and possibly be signed by the president simultaneously.

Molycorp Files for Chapter 11

Molycorp, Inc. filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today.

The only US miner and producer of rare-earth elements—15 elements used in magnets, batteries, catalytic converters and other high-tech products—said it had secured an agreement with creditors to restructure its $1.7 billion in debt. The deal also provides $225 million in new financing to continue operations.

Molycorp and 20 subsidiaries filed chapter 11 petitions in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del. The company said it expects to exit chapter 11 before the end of 2015. The restructuring support agreement is with creditors that hold over 70% of the aggregate principal amount of the company’s 10% senior secured notes.

The Company’s operations outside of North America, with the exception of non-operating companies in Luxembourg and Barbados, are excluded from the filings. Molycorp Rare Metals (Oklahoma), LLC, with operations in Quapaw, Oklahoma, also is excluded from the filings as it is not 100% owned by the Company.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

{ 0 comments }