This morning in metals news, copper hits an over one-week high, President Trump is pushing for a preliminary deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by mid-April and gold could reach $1,400 if a trade war ensues. Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook Copper Surges Strong manufacturing […]
Category: Precious Metals
Global Precious MMI: Will Drop in Platinum, Palladium Prices Continue?
Our Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI), tracking a basket of precious metals from across the globe, floated back down 3.3% after a two-month uptrend.
Section 232 buying strategies – grab your copy of MetalMiner’s Section 232 Investigation Impact Report for only $74.99!
Last month, as my colleague Fouad Egbaria wrote, the platinum-palladium relationship began to reflect its traditional historical dynamic. This month, that trend continues for the two platinum-group metals (PGMs), with U.S. platinum falling 3.6% and U.S. palladium falling 4.2% — below $1,000 per ounce to start the month for the first time since November 2017.
The backdrop of President Trump announcing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports late last week — with more specifics yet to come, continuing an uncertain climate — has forced a broader commodity selloff, which has swept precious metals such as gold into its current, according to Michael Kosares, founder of gold broker USAGOLD, as quoted in a MarketWatch article.
“Once we get through the initial reaction, gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge will likely reassert itself,” he is quoted as saying.
Concerns arose over whether other industrial metals also would get hit as a result of the steel and aluminum tariffs announcement, including precious-metal workhorses platinum and palladium.
“The announcement raised fears there could be retaliation and hit the price of stocks and all industrial metals,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, as quoted in the MarketWatch article. There’s also “fear that higher costs for cars could reduce demand” for the metals, according to the article.
So, where will the platinum-palladium trend go from here?
PGM Spotlight
Although both platinum and palladium may see a slightly extended cooldown in the near term, the longer term could see more price increases — especially for the latter metal.
Broader supply-demand market fundamentals look to underpin the two metals’ movements into the next year and beyond. According to Johnson Matthey, as reported by Reuters, platinum looks to be headed for another surplus in 2018. (Last year’s oversupply clocked in at 110,000 ounces.)
“Before accounting for investment, we expect global platinum consumption to rise slightly,” Reuters quoted Johnson Matthey as saying. “However, this will be matched by a modest increase in combined primary and secondary supplies, mainly due to rising recoveries from autocatalyst scrap,” it said. “Assuming that investment demand in 2018 is similar to last year, the market is likely to remain in modest surplus,” the firm added, according to Reuters.
On the palladium front, the market was expected to remain in deficit, Johnson Matthey said.
“Automotive demand, which rose 6 percent last year to 8.424 million ounces, was expected to hit another record high next year, in line with a rise in gasoline vehicle output,” according to the Reuters piece. “Supply, which declined 2 percent last year, was expected to rise slightly, but the market was set to remain in deficit after recording a shortfall of 629,000 ounces last year.”
The gradual but very real retirement of diesel engines across the European continent continued as well. A German court ruled that cities have the right to ban diesel cars from driving the roads in certain areas. If more diesel engines go extinct, with them will go corresponding PGM consumption for catalytic converters.
Want to see an Aluminum Price forecast? Take a free trial!
Key Price Movers and Shakers
Global Precious MMI: Palladium-Platinum Gap Narrows, Moves Closer to Historical Norm
The Global Precious MMI (Monthly Metals Index) picked up one point this month, rising to 92 for our February reading. Need buying strategies for steel in 2018? MetalMiner’s Annual Outlook has what you need Within the basket of metals, Chinese gold bullion and U.S. silver ingot/bars picked up in price. Palladium, which has bucked the historical trend by […]
USGS: U.S. Mines Produced $75.2 Billion in Minerals Last Year
According to a recent report from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. mining industry produced $75.2 billion in minerals in 2017. Buying Aluminum in 2018? Download MetalMiner’s free annual price outlook The information was published in the USGS’s annual Mineral Commodities Survey. In the import market, the U.S. was 100% reliant on outside sources for […]
Week in Review: Section 232 Report Moves to Trump, MMIs and Oil
Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a quick look back at the week that was here on MetalMiner: Need buying strategies for steel? Try two free months of MetalMiner’s Outlook This week we wrapped up the latest round of posts for our January Monthly Metals Index (MMI) — check out this week’s posts […]
Global Precious MMI: Sub-Index Continues Rise as Palladium Outpaces Platinum Again
Here’s What Happened
- Our Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI), tracking a basket of precious metals from across the globe, rose yet another three points to 90 for the January reading, a 3.4% increase.
- We’re officially in a three-month rising trend for our precious metal sub-index. The last time we saw this buildup was back in Q3 2017, after which the index retreated. If that pattern holds, we could see a drop-off, perhaps as early as February — although seasonality and the global political and economic atmosphere in Q4 both likely had a lot to do with the outcome, which may not be replicated here in Q1 2018.
- Palladium officially busted through the $1,000 per ounce ceiling in December, and there were no signs of a turnaround for the January reading — the PGM per-ounce held above that level for the second straight month. (More on palladium below.)
- Meanwhile, it appears as though platinum will need to take advantage of a “Dry January.” The metal came out of the holidays very sluggish, recording only a $2 per ounce increase and beginning the new year in a rather flat state of malaise.
- “We’ve (still) got a trend, folks!” — this is the fourth straight month in which palladium is priced at a premium to platinum, which has not been the historical norm.
- And then there’s gold. After breaking and holding above the $1,300 per ounce threshold at the beginning of September for the first time since October 2016, the U.S. gold price is back above that benchmark after a few months off.
Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up
What’s Going On in the Background?
- Can palladium keep rising? That all depends. On the one hand, the supply market is pretty tight, and it has been for a while. In fact, the palladium market has been in deficit for the last six of seven years in which data is available, according to a good Reuters piece published just after the new year. On the other hand, the primary thing driving palladium demand, and therefore prices, is mainly Chinese automotive demand. Caveat: if that slows down or even goes in reverse (car puns are just the best, aren’t they?), palladium could go with it. As we reported earlier this week, a Wall Street Journal story pointed out Chinese consumers are now starting to get into used car sales even more, which could portend the end of unmitigated new car sales growth — much like China’s GDP cooldown over the last few years. To wit, here’s a sweet graphic showing the relationship between palladium and China’s automotive sales:
Source: Thomson Reuters[/caption]
- Germans buying up some gold. Regarding that $1,300/ounce threshold we mentioned earlier that gold prices have been hovering above for a couple months straight? That has helped spot gold prices gain about 14% during 2017. Now, at least one nation — going by its recent investment activity — is hoping that upward trend continues. According to another Reuters article, Deutsche Boerse said its Xetra-Gold notes rose in demand to a record 175 tons of gold, a nearly 50% increase over 2016. Safe haven, here we come! (Ja?)
What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For
- PGMs. While ETF Securities, an investment and intelligence firm, which we used to cover quite regularly, expects precious metals (including PGMs) to remain pretty stable for the course of 2018 in its Outlook 2018 report, as we noted last month, keep a close eye on All Things China. This is especially important as it pertains to automotive partnerships between U.S. OEMs and China and the resulting innovation, as my colleague Fouad Egbaria reported earlier this week in our Automotive Monthly Metals Index (MMI).
- ICYMI, our own Irene Martinez Canorea drilled down into the gold markets before the end of 2017 from an analytical perspective, ultimately unlocking the reason why industrial metal buyers (especially those buying copper) should pay attention to gold.
Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook
Key Price Movers and Shakers
Does Gold’s Rise Have Anything to do with Bitcoin?
Gold has defied interest rate rises and record equity markets to rally to its highest level in more than three months, the Financial Times reported this week. Rising more than 6% since early December to over $1,300/ounce — its highest level, the paper reports, since September 2015. Gold is normally considered a safe-haven asset and a […]
This Morning in Metals News: Chinese Steel Futures Start Strong in New Year
This morning in metals news, Chinese steel futures start the year on the right foot, the automotive sales outlook for 2018 is not quite as bright as it has been in recent years and gold reaches a three-month high. Chinese Steel Futures Start ’18 Strong Chinese steel futures started the year on the right foot, […]
